实施有效的碳定价.pdf
1WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NETPageImplementing Effective Carbon PricingJames Rydge, New Climate EconomyWorking PaperOverviewSupport for carbon pricing is growing around the world. Governments, businesses and investors are recognising that nationally-appropriate taxes and trading schemes, as part of a well-aligned package of policies for low-carbon change, can reduce greenhouse gas GHG emissions without harming the economy. Strong, predictable and rising carbon prices send an important signal to markets, helping to align expectations on the direction of change, thereby steering consumption choices and the type of investments made in infrastructure and innovation. They also raise fiscal revenues that can be put to productive uses. Around 40 national jurisdictions and over 20 cities, states and regions, have adopted or are planning explicit carbon prices, covering about 12 of global GHG emissions. The number of carbon pricing instruments implemented or scheduled has almost doubled from 20 to 38 since 2012. Over 1000 major companies and investors have endorsed carbon pricing, and around 450 now use an internal carbon price US40/t CO2or higher for some major oil companies to guide investment decisions, up from 150 companies in 2014. While this momentum is encouraging, current price levels and coverage of emissions are still very low. Carbon prices vary significantly, from less than US1 to US130 per tonne of CO2e, with around 85 of emissions priced at less than US10 per tonne. This is considerably lower than the price that economic models suggest is needed to meet the 2°C global warming goal adopted by the international community. International cooperation on carbon pricing and subsidy re, in particular between countries of the G20, and with the support of the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD and the International Monetary Fund IMF, can help mitigate concerns holding back faster progress. Cooperation can help to overcome concerns about competitiveness impacts from unilateral policy action, improve knowledge-sharing and transparency, provide opportunities to link emission trading schemes, and reduce the costs of action. 1. INTRODUCTION 32. GROWING MOMENTUM FOR CARBON 4 PRICING 3. THE ECONOMIC AND CLIMATE CASE 5 FOR CARBON PRICING Carbon prices are an efficient way to reduce 5 GHG emissions Carbon pricing instruments can be useful for 10 raising revenue to support public priorities Wider environmental and economic security 11 benefits from carbon prices Clear and credible price signals to guide 11 expectations Modelling the impact of carbon prices 124. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 13A better way to overcome competitiveness 13 concerns How to foster greater international cooperation 14 on carbon pricing 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 15 CONTENTSPageImplementing Effective Carbon Pricing WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NET 2About this working paperThis New Climate Economy Working Paper was written as a supporting document for the 2015 report of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Seizing the Global Opportunity Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. It reflects the research conducted for Section 2.5 of the full report and is part of a series of 10 Working Papers. It reflects the recommendations made by the Global Commission. CitationRydge, J., 2015. Implementing Effective Carbon Pricing. Contributing paper for Seizing the Global Opportunity Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. New Climate Economy, London and Washington, DC. Available at http//newclimateeconomy.report/misc/working-papers/.This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivative Works 3.0 License. To view a copy of the license, visit https//creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us.New Climate Economyc/o World Resources Institute10 G St NESuite 800Washington, DC 20002, USA1 202 729-7600New Climate Economyc/o Overseas Development Institute203 Blackfriars RoadLondon, SE1 8NJ, UK44 0 20 7922 Photo credit V.T. Polywoda/FlickrImplementing Effective Carbon Pricing WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NET 3The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate recommends that all developed and emerging economies, and others where possible, commit to introducing or strengthening carbon pricing by 2020, and should phase out fossil fuel subsidies.Governments should integrate carbon pricing into broader fiscal re strategies, prioritising the use of resulting revenues to offset impacts on low-income households and for other productive uses such as reducing other distortionary taxes. G20 governments or coalitions of willing governments should work together to enhance efficiency and minimise competitiveness concerns, building on existing peer-review processes and reporting annually on progress. All major businesses should adopt internal carbon prices and actively support carbon pricing policy. A carbon price in 2030 of US75 per tonne of CO2e in developed countries and US35 per tonne of CO2e in developing countries, on average, could see annual emissions in 2030 reduced by 2.8–5.6 Gt of CO2e. 1. IntroductionIt is now widely acknowledged that one of the most important steps that governments in advanced and emerging economies can take to build a more robust economy and a safer climate is to put an explicit price on carbon.1A strong, predictable and rising explicit carbon price – applied through policies appropriate to the national context, including carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems – can send important signals across the economy, helping to guide consumption choices and investments towards low-carbon activities and away from carbon-intensive ones.2It can also be a better way to raise revenue for productive uses than many existing taxes, such as on employment. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies – effectively, negative carbon prices – is also crucial, as they distort markets and encourage wasteful use, contributing to air pollution and increasing importing countries’ vulnerability to volatile prices. Around 40 national jurisdictions and over 20 cities, states and regions, have implemented or scheduled an explicit price on carbon, covering an estimated 7 Gt CO2e, or about 12 of annual global greenhouse gas GHG emissions. This is triple the coverage of a decade ago. The number of carbon pricing instruments implemented or scheduled has almost doubled from 20 to 38 since 2012.3Concerns persist that pricing carbon will hurt industrial competitiveness, so most explicit prices are still quite low, less than US10 per tonne of CO2, and there is often no mechanism or plan to increase them. Several countries have also provided mptions or special treatment to their most polluting energy-intensive industries, thus limiting the effectiveness of the carbon price.International cooperation can help to overcome this barrier. Trading partners can coordinate the introduction of carbon prices of roughly comparable levels, and thus overcome competitiveness concerns. By working together, countries can also benefit from knowledge-sharing on best practice, along with greater transparency and the opportunity to link trading schemes.Conditions are now particularly favourable for both carbon pricing and re of fossil fuel consumption subsidies, due to the fall in global oil prices over the last year, combined with lower gas and coal prices.4G20 countries have already agreed to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and several are now acting with support of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund IMF, the International Energy Agency IEA, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD and The World Bank.5The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC economies have made a similar commitment. There is a strong case for countries to build on these commitments and introduce meaningful explicit carbon prices across countries at the same time. This working paper begins by looking at the strong momentum for carbon pricing around the world, including growing support from the private sector. It then examines the benefits of carbon pricing, and explains what is needed for successful implementation, drawing on lessons from different countries. Finally, it discusses how to advance international cooperation on carbon pricing, with particular attention to members of the G20. Implementing Effective Carbon Pricing WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NET 42. Growing momentum for carbon pricing The use of explicit carbon pricing is increasing. In 2014, China launched two pilot regional emissions trading schemes ETSs, bringing the total to seven,6and announced plans to transition to a national carbon pricing system from 2017.7The scheme will be the world’s largest, twice the size of the European Union Emissions Trading System EU ETS, covering around 3–4 billion tonnes of CO2– equivalent to the total annual emissions of the European Union EU, or India, Brazil and Japan combined.8In January 2015, South Korea launched its ETS, the second largest cap-and-trade system in the world, covering more than 500 business entities from 23 sectors. Permits have traded in the range of US7–8 per tonne.9The European Union approved important res in 2014 to strengthen and revitalise its carbon market, and it has provisionally agreed that implementation of these res will be brought forward from 2021 to 2019.10California and Quebec linked their carbon trading schemes in 2014, enabling trade in allowances and many other benefits, and in April 2015, Ontario announced that it will launch an ETS linked to the California and Quebec schemes.11As part of wider fiscal res, Chile approved a carbon tax in September 2014, to start in 2018; the rate is US5 per tonne of CO2e and applies to the power sector and large industries, covering around 55 of emissions.12South Africa plans to introduce a carbon tax in 2016. Figure 1 maps carbon taxes and emissions trading systems that are operating, under development or proposed around the world. Figure 1Summary of existing, emerging and proposed carbon pricing instruments ETS and taxes Source The World Bank.13NEW ZEALANDBRITISH COLUMBIAWASHINGTONOREGONCALIFORNIAMEXICOCHILEBRAZILRIO DE JANEIROSÃO PAULORGGIALBERTA MANITOBAONTARIOQUÉBECICELANDEUTURKEYUKRAINEKAZAKHSTANCHINATHAILAND JAPANSOUTH AFRICAREPUBLIC OF KOREAPORTUGALIRELANDSWEDENFRANCESWITZERLANDSLOVENIAESTONIAFINLANDLATVIAUKPOLANDNORWAYDENMARKTally of carbon pricing instrumentsKYOTOBEIJINGTIANJINHUBEISHANGHAICHONG- QINGSHENZHENTAIWANGUANGDONGTOKYOSAITAMAREPUBLIC OF KOREANational level Subnational level211443923122Source Alexandre Kossoy, Grzegorz Peszko, Klaus Oppermann, Nicolai Prytz, Noémie Klein, Kornelis Blok, Long Lam, Lindee Wong, Bram Borkent. 2015. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 September. World Bank, Washington, DC.ETS implemented or scheduled for implementationCarbon tax impemented or scheduled for implementionETS or carbon tax under considerationETS and carbon tax implemented or scheduled ETS implemented or scheduled, tax under considerationCarbon tax implemented or scheduled, ETS under considerationThe circles represent subnational jurisdictions. The circles are not representative of the size of the carbon pricing instrument, but show the subnational regions large circles and cities small circles. Note Carbon pricing instruments are considered “scheduled for implementation” once they have been ally adopted through legislation and have an of_f_icial, planned start date. Implementing Effective Carbon Pricing WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NET 5Support for carbon pricing is also building in the private sector. Many major businesses, including in high-emitting sectors such as oil and gas,14are now endorsing carbon pricing – an important shift after many years of business opposition. They see it as a way to drive efficiency and profitable new business opportunities. More than 1,000 businesses and investors expressed support for carbon pricing at the UN Climate Summit in September 2014, including BP, British Airways, Cemex, Braskem, Royal Dutch Shell, Statkraft, Unilever, Statoil and DONG Energy.15At the time of writing 437 businesses are reported to be already using an internal carbon price in assessing investments, up from 150 in 2014. Shell, for example, uses a price of US40 per tonne of CO2e, Statoil ASA US50, and ExxonMobil US80.16In May 2015, at the Business countries and businesses are recognising the wide range of economic benefits that are possible. They are also learning how to manage many of the challenges that can arise around these res, which may make it easier for others in the future.18Conditions are now particularly favourable for both carbon pricing19and fossil fuel consumption subsidy re due to the fall in global oil prices over the last year, combined with lower gas and coal prices. While it is not yet clear whether these lower fossil fuel prices will last, in the short term they can help to offset any energy price increases resulting from these measures, making it easier for consumers and businesses to adjust, and reducing political resistance.20It is notable that a number of countries, including Mexico, India and Indonesia, have seized the opportunity to advance re of fossil fuel subsidies over the last year. Many of these res are expected to be permanent – i.e., they are unlikely to be reversed if energy prices rise. This stronger momentum is supported by the G20 commitment to rationalise or phase out fossil fuel subsidies from 2009, which was reaffirmed again most recently in 2014, as well as a similar commitment from APEC countries.213. The economic and climate case for carbon pricingAs set out in Better Growth, Better Climate, experience with carbon prices to date suggests that they have four key benefits they are an efficient way to reduce GHG emissions; they are a useful way to raise revenue to support public priorities; they provide wider environmental and energy security benefits; and they provide a clear and credible price signal to guide business expectations. Below we address each of these in turn, and examine key factors for successful implementation. 3.1 CARBON PRICES ARE AN EFFICIENT WAY TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONSCarbon prices set through broad-based taxes or cap-and-trade systems are an economically efficient way to tackle the greenhouse gas market failure.22Recent evidence from the electricity sector indicates that these have been the cheapest policies to reduce emissions.23Carbon prices come in many s, and even non-price-based regulatory measures to reduce GHG emissions impose an “implicit” price on the release of carbon and thus can be considered “implicit carbon taxes” see Box 1. Here we focus on explicit carbon prices.Implementing Effective Carbon Pricing WWW.NEWCLIMATEECONOMY.NET 6Box 1Carbon pricesExplicit carbon prices can either