《重庆2035:绿色低碳增长战略将经济增长与资源利用脱钩》(英文版).pdf
CHONGQING 2 35 SUPPORTING REPORT 4 A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedPhoto jejim. © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Acknowledgments The Lead Authors of the Overview and four supporting reports are Serge Salat, Xueman Wang, and Zhou Linjun. Cover photo 4045. Design Ultra Designs, Inc.1. Introduction 2 2. Current Trends and Key Issues 3 3. Benchmarking and Lessons from Global Cities 7 4. Recommendations Chongqing’s Green Growth Transation 12 Green growth transation I Reduce the energy intensity of the economy and decarbonize the energy mix by increasing the share of renewables 12 Green growth transation II Plan for a compact urban to decrease transportation energy use, pollution, and congestion, and become a car-light city 12 Green growth transation III Improve the energy and resource efficiency of the building sector with efficient buildings and districts 14 Green growth transation IV Leverage Chongqing’s automobile production base to develop the fast-growing electric mobility sector 14 References 17 Endnotes 18 FIGURES Figure 1. CO 2Emissions Per Capita and CO 2Emissions Per Unit of GDP in Chinese Cities 3 Figure 2. Chongqing’s Energy Mix 4 Figure 3. Energy Consumption Trend by Type of Energy for Chongqing 4 Figure 4. Energy Consumption of Chongqing Municipality Per Unit of GDP and Average Daily Energy Consumption in 2007–2015 4 Figure 5. Energy Consumption in Typical Chinese Urban Structures 6 Figure 6. Energy Consumption Per Unit of GDP 7 Figure 7. CO 2Emissions Per Capita and Per Unit of GDP 7 Figure 8. Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in 2004–2015 8 Figure 9. Annual Mean PM 10and PM 2.5Concentration to WHO Interim Targets and WHO Air Quality Guidelines 8 Figure 10. Energy Use Correlation with Economic Activity in a Sample of 274 Cities Representative of World Cities 9 Figure 11. Changes in Gross Value Added and Energy Use in Japan’s Industry and Service Sectors in 2009–2016 11 Figure 12. Transportation Mode Share under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 13. Automobile Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Per Regional Location under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 14. Automobile Vehicle Kilometers Traveled in 2035 under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 15. Daily Average Travel Time Per Capita under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 16. Automobile GHG in 2035 16 Figure 17. Automobile Air Pollutant Emissions in 2035 16 BOXES Box 1. Green Growth Strategy Key Messages 2 Box 2. Energy Use of Urban Structures in China 4 Box 3. Energy Efficiency and Low-Carbon Perance in Tokyo and Hong Kong SAR 10 Box 4. Urban Growth Scenario Modeling of Impact on The Environment and GHGs 13 Table of ContentsChongqing is at a crossroads where its GDP per capita will reach a level at which cities typically decouple economic growth from energy and resource use, as well as associated carbon emissions and pollution. However, decoupling does not happen automatically. It requires cities to adopt green growth policies. For Chongqing to build a more innovative economy that increases its share of high-value activities, it is critical that it use resources more efficiently. Chongqing Municipality’s energy mix is dominated by coal at 60 percent and more generally by fossil fuels at 75 percent Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. Moreover, an inefficient urban and an energy- and raw material-intensive economy have led to an overconsumption of resources, serious environmental damage, and high GHG emissions. To produce one unit of GDP, Chongqing Municipality consumes 10 times more energy and emits eight times more CO 2than the Greater Tokyo Area or Seoul Capital Area. High emissions have deteriorating effects on its environment and air quality, and they pose a significant danger to human health and risk exacerbating climate change. 1. Introduction Photo onlyyouqj. BOX 1Green Growth Strategy Key Messages Current trends and key issues ■ ■ Chongqing’s manufacturing economy and superblock-driven expansion pattern are material- and energy-intensive. ■ ■ Chongqing’s carbon emissions are high and air quality is low, partly due to the high share of coal in energy production and an urban that encourages driving. Benchmarking with global cities ■ ■ Chongqing’s energy use and greenhouse gas and CO 2emissions are very high compared to global cities. ■ ■ While the development pathways of global cities suggest that resource use and economic growth can decouple, active policy measures are required to make this decoupling happen. Recommendations ■ ■ Reduce the energy intensity of the economy and decarbonize the energy mix by increasing the share of renewables. ■ ■ Plan for a compact urban to decrease transportation energy use, emissions, pollution, and congestion, and become a car-light city. ■ ■ Improve the energy and resource efficiency of the built environment with efficient buildings and districts. ■ ■ Leverage Chongqing’s automobile production base to develop the fast-growing electric mobility sector. 2 / A Green and Low Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use2. Current Trends and Key Issues Chongqing’s economic growth is energy intensive and its CO 2emissions are very high; the city emits about double the CO 2 of Shanghai and Beijing to produce one unit of GDP. Between 1997 and 2015, energy consumption per capita has grown fourfold from 0.66 tons of standard coal per inhabitant in 1997 to 2.39 tons in 2015. In 2014, Chongqing had very high CO 2emissions, at 8.22 tCO 2 e per capita and at 0.78 tCO 2 e/US1,000 at PPP per unit of GDP 1figure 1. Chongqing’s high carbon emissions per unit of GDP can be explained by two structural issues an economy supported by heavy industries, and an energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, at 72 percent, with coal representing about 60 percent of its total energy consumption figure 2 and figure 3. Nevertheless, there are signs that Chongqing’s GDP growth is decoupling from energy consumption. As shown in figure 4, its coal consumption has remained static and fallen slightly over the last few years, while the energy intensity per unit of GDP continues to decline significantly. Nonetheless, Chongqing’s energy consumption remains high. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍CHONGQING 2035 / 3 FIGURE 1CO 2Emissions Per Capita and CO 2Emissions Per Unit of GDP in Chinese Cities 8.22 7.8 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Chongqing Beijing Shanghai China average ● CO 2 emissions per capita tons ● CO 2 emissions per 10,000 US at ppp Source Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Brookings Institution 2015, Economist Intelligence Unit 2011, and International Carbon Action Partnership 2014. 8.2 9.7 7.8 3.5 4 7.4 of total energy consumptiom Index Base Year 1997 100 4 / A Green and Low Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use FIGURE 2Chongqing’s Energy Mix FIGURE 3Energy Consumption Trend by Type of Energy for Chongqing Source Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997 13.93 68.17 7.17 10.73 1997 2001 1999 2005 2003 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1998 13.74 65.65 8.66 11.85 1999 13.48 65.64 8.62 12.22 2000 12.95 66.36 8.39 12.30 2001 12.53 66.07 8.01 13.39 2002 11.76 68.33 7.57 12.34 2003 11.13 70.32 11.52 2004 11.98 65.46 11.28 11.28 2005 13.39 64.23 11.68 10.71 2006 13.69 65.65 12.06 8.60 2007 12.84 60.02 12.18 14.96 2008 13.78 60.18 12.76 13.29 2009 12.84 60.66 12.09 14.41 2010 12.95 59.44 12.76 14.85 2011 12.79 64.06 14.19 8.96 2012 13.88 61.08 13.74 11.30 2013 13.23 63.20 14.28 9.28 2014 14.20 60.36 13.44 12.03 2015 14.57 57.68 14.43 13.32 ● Coal ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity ● Total consumption of energy ● Coal ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity Year Year FIGURE 4Energy Consumption of Chongqing Municipality Per Unit of GDP and Average Daily Energy Consumption in 2007–2015 Year 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 14.29 15.53 19.26 21.53 24.09 25.42 27.01 23.54 24.48 Average Daily Energy Consumption 2007 2009 2011 2013 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015Energy consumption of Chongqing municipality per unit of GDP tons of standard coal per RMB 10,000Average daily energy consumption thousand tons of standard coal per day, 2007–2015 Source Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016.Chongqing’s urban expansion patterns are both material and energy intensive. A significant decline in population density of almost 50 percent in the last two decades has had a significant impact on energy use, infrastructure costs, and CO 2emissions, increasing resource consumption and infrastructure costs per capita. Network costs per capita increase with lower densities, as these reduce economies of scale. 2For example, a 50 percent fall in population density increases water network costs by 72 percent per capita and street networks costs by 117 percent per capita Salat, Bourdic, and Kamiya 2017. Chongqing’s superblock patterns are energy intensive. Chongqing’s growth in the last two decades has taken place in the of residential superblocks that now cover three-quarters of the central city’s built-up area, and are home to 35 percent of its population and 15 percent of its jobs. Residential and commercial superblocks together represent 86 percent of the urban area and are mainly located in the city’s fragmented outskirts. This has been one of the main drivers of the increase in energy consumption, as suggested by empirical evidence from a comparative study carried out in Jinan focusing on 27 neighborhoods that represent four urban typologies commonly found in Chinese citiestraditional, grid, enclave, and superblock box 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍CHONGQING 2035 / 5 ● Total consumption of energy ● Coal ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity BOX 2Energy Use of Urban Structures in China Households living in high-rise superblocks in Jinan consume up to double the energy of households in any other residential typefigure 5. Energy consumption can be divided into three general categories 1. Operational energy Operational consumption at home and in common areas accounts for the largest share, about 71–79 percent of the estimated total household energy consumption. The high level of operational energy consumption in superblocks is mainly due to the need for the vertical transport of people, water, and goods, but also for the operation of car parks lighting, ventilation and large underutilized spaces. In contrast, medium-height and high-density urban fabrics consume the least energy. 2. Transportation energy Transportation energy is the second most important factor in household energy use. Superblocks consume on average two to three times more transportation energy than other types of neighborhoods, as these developments have few services within walking distance and usually require the use of a car for daily activities. In other urban structures, transportation energy is reduced by the presence of retail, schools, services, and accessible jobs in pedestrian environments. 3. Embodied energy This is the amount of energy required during the life cycle of a material or productproduction, extraction, processing, manufacturing, transportation, implementation, maintenance, and recycling, with the notable exception of use. Superblocks have the highest embodied energy use because of their peripheral locations that require new infrastructure and land development. A superblock in Jinan has the highest embodied energy per household, reaching a maximum of more than 12,000 MJ/household per year, compared to the minimum of less than 6,000 MJ/household per year. Source Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010.6 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use An urban that encourages the use of private cars generates more GHG emissions and lowers air quality. Urban sprawl and superblocks increase the dependence on private vehicles. Households living in single-use superblocks are highly dependent on cars to accomplish their daily activities and they consume two to three times more transportation-related energy than those in other neighborhood types on average Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010. Increasing congestion resulting from car dependence has become one of the most serious threats to air quality. The high reliance on cars and the activities that the basis of Chongqing’s economy result in the city’s high level of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter PM, which are produced by combustion engines, solid fuel, road use, and a variety of industrial processes WHO 2013. The burning of fossil fuels in power plants, industrial plants, and vehicles, while necessary for industrial growth, has been the main cause of air pollution. FIGURE 5Energy Consumption in Typical Chinese Urban Structures Source Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010. Energy consumption MJ 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Enclave Grid Traditional courtyard High-rise superblock ● Embo