《BP能源的未来？—通过燃料电池和氢气实现可持续移动》报告.pdf

SHELL HYDROGEN STUDYENERGY OF THE FUTURESustainable Mobility through Fuel Cells and H21THE ELEMENT HYDROGEN2SUPPLY PATHWAYS 6113STORAGE in most cases it is found in chemically bonded . The larg-est proportion of hydrogen on Earth occurs as a compound with oxygen, in the of water or water vapour. Corresponding to the relative atomic masses of hydrogen and oxygen, water H2O consists of approxi-mately 11.2 percent by weight hydrogen; in other words, the mass ratio of hydrogen to oxygen is around 18. Moreover, hydrogen occurs in almost all organic compounds. It is not only living creatures that are composed of organic compounds. Fossil energy sources also consist primarily of carbon-hydrogen com-pounds. For example, the hydrocarbon methane, the main constituent of natural The H-H molecule has a relatively high bond energy of 436 kJ/mol, which means that the H2molecule is stable and chemically inert at room temperature. Only above temperatures of around 6000 degrees Celsius do hydrogen molecules break down almost completely into hydrogen atoms. Depending on whether the protons of an H-H compound rotate in parallel or in opposite directions about their own axis nuclear spin, the two modifications are known respectively as ortho- hydrogen and para-hydrogen. Ortho-hydrogen o-H2 has a higher energy content than para-hydrogen p-H2. In addition, their technical and physical properties differ slightly. Under prevailing thermodynamic conditions ortho- and para-hydrogen an equilibrium mixture. Under standard conditions hydrogen exists as a 7525 mixture of o- and p-hydrogen, while cryogenic hydrogen consists almost entirely of p-H2. The conversion of o- to p-hydrogen is an exothermic chemical reaction in which energy is released. Therefore, even if cryogenic liquid hydrogen is completely isolated, evaporation occurs unless all o-H2is converted into p-H2Holle-mann/Wiberg 2007. In the rest of this study the term “hydrogen” will mostly be used as a synonym for the H2molecule.1.2 WHERE DOES HYDROGEN OCCURHydrogen is the first and most important element in the universe. Its estimated mass fraction is in the order of 75 . In the early uni-verse, some 13.8 billion years ago, hydrogen nuclei were ed by fusion at extremely high temperatures nucleosynthesis. In the hot interior of stars, the subsequent stellar fusion of hydrogen to helium, also known as “hydrogen burning”, is the most important and richest source of energy in their life cycle. The age of a star can be determined from the distribution of the elements and the stellar mass.1.1 WHAT IS HYDROGENThe name “hydro-gène” “water producer” was first coined in 1787 by the French chemist Antoine Laurent de Lavoisier, from the Greek words “hydor” water and “genes” producing. It had earlier been called “inflammable air” by the English chemist and physicist Henry Cavendish because of its high flammability. The German name “Wasserstoff” “water substance” likewise refers to its water producing properties. Hydrogen chemical symbol H for the Latin name hydrogenium is the first element in the periodic table and also the simplest. Ordinary hydrogen consists of a positively charged nucleus pro-ton and a negatively charged electron. Hydrogen has the lowest atomic weight of any element, at 1.008 grams per mol g/mol; atomic hydrogen is 12 times lighter than carbon C, 14 times lighter than nitrogen N and 16 times lighter than oxygen O.In addition to ordinary or light hydrogen 1H protium, there are also two other hydrogen atoms isotopes heavy hydrogen 2H or deuterium D and super-heavy hydrogen 3H or tritium T, with additional neutrons. As the neutron in the hydrogen nucleus is roughly the same weight as the proton, deuterium is approximately twice as heavy and tritium approximately three times as heavy as protium. Almost all hydrogen 99.985 is ordinary hydrogen, only 0.015 occurs as heavy hydrogen. The proportion of super-heavy hydrogen is vanishingly small Hollemann/Wiberg 2007.Under standard conditions, i.e. ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure of 1.013 bar, atomic hydrogen H does not occur. Instead, hydrogen exists in dimerised , where two hydrogen atoms firmly combine to a hydrogen molecule H2. The molecular weight of a hydrogen molecule is then 2.016 g/mol. 1 THE ELEMENT HYDROGEN1 HYDROGEN ISOTOPES 2 HYDROGEN MOLECULES In the beginning, there was hydrogen. The fuel cell is a greater achievement of civilisation than the steam engine and will soon banish the Siemens generator into the museum. PEM is likely to be the leading technology way into the future. FCEVs are ready for production. IEA HIA 2016There is now a wealth of practical expe-rience available with fuel cell prototype passenger cars. A number of major car manufacturers are starting to offer early series-production vehicles which are now just as good as conventional internal com-bustion engine cars in terms of functionality. The number of fuel cell cars manufactured over the coming years is projected to range from several hundred up to thousands of units US DOE 2016.Market maturity Technology proven worldwide Europe, North America, Asia through prototypes/small fleets, first production vehicles in moderate numbers. Incentive schemes for passenger car purchase still necessary.Requirements Comparable to internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of equipment, perance, range; sufficiently dense hydrogen refuelling infrastructure.Advantages Pollutant-free driving; range and perance close to petrol cars.Disadvantages Still much more expensive than internal combustion engine cars; poor refuelling station infrastructure.Alternatives Internal combustion engine cars; battery electric cars.PASSENGER CARS AT A GLANCE6.2 TECHNOLOGY READINESSFinally, the degree of technical readiness or the state of development of hydrogen- powered drives – mostly fuel cell vehicles – is assessed. Hydrogen-powered vehicles are categorised by reference to the Technology Readiness Levels TRL devised by NASA NASA 1995; DOD 2011; ISO 2013. The Technology Readiness Levels range from the basic description of the operating principle TRL 1 through a proof of concept TRL 3 up to TRL 9 technology established in the market. In almost all the vehicle categories considered, there are at least experimental setups or small prototypes which have been tested – if not necessarily to scale – in their operational environment with hydrogen and/or fuel cell technology. For that reason, the rest of this section concentrates only on TR levels 5/6 experimental setup in operational environment/prototype upwards. The ultimate objective of technological devel-opment is TRL 9, a technology established in the market – like internal combustion engine drives in road transport. The prereq-uisite for this is an approved, functioning technology TRL 8. 45Shell Hydrogen Study446 MOBILITY4156789MotorcycleAviation5-66-7Lorries6-7Buses7-8Passenger Cars8Material Handling8-9Light Rail7Space Travel9Shipping5-6TRLShunting Locos6-7Buses have undergone more intensive testing with hydrogen and fuel cells than any other of transport. Light rail and road vehi-cles for the transport of goods may benefit from bus technology. Of all modes of transport, industrial trucks have the largest numbers of fuel cell electric vehicles.Commercial aircraft and merchant ships can use fuel cells as an efficient and clean energy provider for auxiliary power units.The most important advantages of hydrogen and fuel cells in road transport are the higher efficiency of the energy converter, zero-pollutant operation in fuel cells and functionality comparable to established IC engined vehicles.Space travel provided the impetus for the development of hydrogen as a transport fuel and of fuel cell technology.In the transport sector hydrogen is now used almost exclusively in fuel cells. Hydrogen fuel cell systems are suitable for virtually all means of transport. Passenger cars, buses and material handling vehicles have tech-nically reached series-production readiness, are not far off that point, or are already in the early stages of commercialisation.Fuel cell passenger cars now offer the same features as those powered by internal combustion engines.IN SUMMARYTRL Definition of Technology Readiness Levels5 Experimental setup in operational environment – key technology elements tested in a relevant environment6 Prototype in operational environment – technical feasibility demonstrated in the area of application7 Prototype in use – demonstration almost to scale in the operational environment8 Qualified system with proof of functional capability in area of use – product9 Qualified system with proof of successful use – productWhat is the technological maturity of the individual means of transport in terms of hydrogen and fuel cells todayThe highest Technological Readiness Levels, TRL 8 or 9, are achieved by fuel cell industrial trucks, for which extensive experience in the field is already available in large numbers, especially in North America. Cars are at TRL 8 and buses at TRL 7 to 8. The longest and most extensive operational experience that is available relates to hydrogen and fuel cell buses. Moreover, the first passenger cars with a fuel cell drive are now available as series-production vehicles.The technology components and opera-tional experience relating to fuel cell buses can in principle be transferred to lorries and light rail vehicles. While local trains have already reached a relatively high technol-ogy readiness TRL 7, the technology for shunting locomotives is still lagging behind somewhat TRL 6 to 7. In terms of lorries, the lighter vehicle classes are also at the early prototype stage TRL 6 to 7, whereas for heavy goods vehicles first concepts are available.The use of fuel cell technology for ship and aircraft propulsion systems is currently at TRL 5 to TRL 6, with only small prototypes to date. There are no equivalent concepts as yet for merchant ships and commercial aircraft. Fuel cells are successfully used as auxiliary power units APUs, however, these are still one-off products for experi-mental purposes TRL 6.Lastly, rocket propulsion systems are difficult to categorise. Hydrogen-fuelled rockets have been used in space travel for decades, but it is a small niche market with few applications over time. Nonetheless, the technology itself should be categorised at TRL 9. Technology readiness is an important prerequisite for the commercial success of new technologies. However, a high level of technology readiness, while a necessary condition, is not sufficient in itself for market success. Depending on the technology user, there are other important factors affecting the purchase, maintenance or use of a means of transport with a specific drive/fuel combination. Private users want transportation means to provide a passenger transport service, and generally one that is as cost-effective as possible. For that reason, purchase and maintenance costs and energy consump-tion play a part. Therefore, the resources and time involved in using the transportation means should not be too high. However, other selection criteria might be as important as economics. Non-economic criteria include comfort, safety, prestige and environmental characteristics such as specific emissions; in some cases people are prepared to pay a high premium for such criteria, especially pioneer users. In commercial transport the most important factors, in addition to technology readiness, are economic criteria arising from the acquisition and operating costs for a vehicle. In addition, usage restrictions and availabilities of drive/fuel combinations are taken into account in regard to vehicle acquisition and maintenance. Since economic efficiency and energy and environmental balances are relevant for both private and commercial users, these are assessed in more detail below in respect of passenger cars.7 CAR OWNERSHIP COSTSThere are many factors determining the choice and operation of a vehicle. They include technical parameters such as range or engine power, ecological parameters such as emissions, regulatory parameters such as usage restrictions/driving bans or qualitative parameters such as comfort or prestige. An important factor in deciding whether to buy or keep a car is economic in nature, i.e. the costs involved. These can include the substantial purchase costs of the vehicle, running costs, or costs relating to a specific mileage or transport capacity. This chapter looks at the economics of hydrogen-powered fuel cell passenger cars and compares fuel cell electric vehicles FCEV with competing drive/fuel combinations – namely petrol cars, petrol hybrids and battery electric passenger cars.An analysis tool to assess the economic viability of different fuel-drive-train combina-tions is the total cost of ownership TCO approach as established in commercial road transport. TCO analysis takes account of all the direct and indirect costs of vehicle ownership for the purposes of providing a desired passenger or goods transport service. The fixed TCO costs include the acquisition costs for a car, i.e. the purchase price usually for the basic version of a vehicle or, if financing is used, the instalment pay-ments plus interest. If the car is to be sold again, the depreciation over the desired ownership period or the trade-in value must also be estimated. Vehicle tax and car insurance are included in the fixed costs. In addition, workshop costs for mainte-nance and wear-and-tear repairs must be taken into account ADAC 2016. Furthermore, assumptions have to be made about key cost items – regarding insurance tariff or depreciation for example. Finally, the running TCO costs include spending on fuel or energy and consumables.The TCO estimate is complex and it is appropriate primarily for rational economic operators. For the analysis of financial decisions of private households, however, a simple comparison of the most important differentiating cost items is usually sufficient. The key cost differentiators are the purchase price of the vehicle and the fuel costs for its operation. If the ownership costs for different drive types are similar, they are assumed to have little influence on purchase and operation decisions; if they differ significantly, the ownership costs can 25 TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELS OF MOBILITY APPLICATIONS FOR HYDROGEN/FUEL CELLS47Shell Hydrogen Study466 MOBILITYConverterFuel cell Hydrogen tankBatteryConverterElectric motorFuel cellHydrogen tankBatteryElectric motorConverter0.020.040.060.080.1 € /MJ3691215 € /100 km9.5 €/kg7 €/kg2.5 €/l1.5 €/l35 ct/kWh20 ct/kWh* European fuel prices Passenger cars 2020Hydrogen Petrol Electricity FCEV Petrol BEVPetrol Hybrid26 FUEL COSTS AT EUROPEAN FUEL PRICES, PASSENGER CARS 202010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.000 €10,00020,00030,00040