《WMO 2006年全球气候状况声明》(英文版).pdf
WMO-No. 1016WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2006WMO-No. 1016© 2007, World Meteorological OrganizationISBN 92-63-11016-6NOTEThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitations of its frontiers or boundaries.Cover photo Christian MorelThis Statement is a summary of ination provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; the National Climatic Data Center and the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center, United States. Other contributors are from WMO Member countries Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Fiji, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, India, Japan, Mauritius, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, Romania and Sweden. The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development ACMAD in Niamey, Niger; the Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany; the Drought Monitoring Centre DMC, Harare, Zimbabwe; the European Climate Support Network ECSN and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ICPAC also contributed to the publication.ForewordThe World Meteorological Organization WMO, through its Commission for Climatology and in cooperation with its 188 Members, has issued annual statements on the status of the global climate since 1993. The statement for 2006 describes extreme weather and climate events and provides a historical perspective on the variability and trends of surface tem-peratures and other important parameters. The statements provide authoritative scientific ination on climate and its variability, com-plementing the periodic assessments made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, which is co-sponsored by WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP. All the years since the beginning of the new century, including 2006, rank among the 10 warmest years of the observational period ranging from 1850 to the present. In the course of the year, Australia, the United States of America and parts of Europe experienced exceptional heat waves. The 2006 typhoon season, even if below average in terms of the number of events, caused disastrous impacts on some south-east Asian nations. Devastating floods and landslides due to heavy precipita-tion events were reported worldwide and especially affected the Greater Horn of Africa and the Philippines. Prolonged drought condi-tions persisted in Africa, Australia, China and the United States. The year 2006 continued the pattern of sharply decreasing Arctic sea ice, and the Antarctic ozone depletion reached new record values. The role of WMO and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMHSs of its Members is instrumental in addressing the challenges related to climate variability and change, since accurate and timely weather-, climate- and water-related products and services are prerequisites to the successful ulation and implementa-tion of any adaptive response policies and measures, especially to climate extremes. WMO will intensify its efforts to assist all of its Members in modernizing their respective national networks and climate databases in order to help them reach the objectives of several agreed-upon regional and global strategies, including the United Nations Millennium Development Goals MDGs.WMO climate-related programmes contribute to capacity-building by promoting the devel-opment of comprehensive climate data management systems, thus ensuring that high-quality climate data are readily available to WMO Members, and by assisting these Members and the relevant international organi-zations in furthering applications to support public safety, health and welfare, alleviate poverty and foster sustainable development. In addition, major internationally coordinated multidisciplinary research efforts such as the International Polar Year IPY 2007–2008 will further help to improve our understanding of basic climate change processes. According to the first published results of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR4, most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the middle of the twentieth century is very likely due to the observed rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influ-ences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. In this context, the timely release of authoritative climate statements, assessments, reviews and historical perspectives provides crucial ination on the state of the climate and facilitates the important role played by WMO in contributing to sustainable develop-ment in the twenty-first century. M. JarraudSecretary-GeneralGlobal temperatures during 2006The analyses made by leading climate centres indicate that the global mean surface tem-perature in 2006 was 0.42°C to 0.54°C above the 1961–1990 annual average. Accordingly, 2006 will most likely go down as the sixth warmest year on record. December 2006 was the warmest December since global surface records were instituted.Based on the Hadley Centre analyses, 2006 surface temperatures averaged separately for both hemispheres were 0.59°C above the 30-year mean of 14.6°C/58.28°F for the northern hemisphere, which was the fourth warmest year on record, and 0.26°C above the 30-year mean of 13.4°C/56.12°F for the southern hemi-sphere respectively, for the eighth warmest year on record. The global average temperature anomaly for December was 0.54°C.All temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in data cover-age. The size of the uncertainties is such that the global average temperature for 2006 is statistically indistinguishable from, and could be anywhere between, the first and the eighth warmest year on record.Since the start of the twentieth century, the global average surface temperature has risen approximately 0.7°C. But this increase has not been steady. Since 1976, the global aver-age temperature has risen sharply, at 0.18°C per decade. Note Following established practice, WMO’s global tem-perature analyses are based on two different data sets. One is the combined data set maintained by the Met Office Hadley Centre, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. The other is maintained by the US Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA. Both centres use improved temperature analyses, but different ologies. Hadley Centre analyses showed that the global mean surface temperature in 2006 was 0.42°C above the 1961–1990 annual average 14°C/57.2°F and hence marks the sixth warmest year on record. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the global mean surface temperature anomaly was 0.54°C, which ranks 2006 the fifth warmest year in their record.Figure 1 – This figure highlights annual global and hemispheric combined land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature SST anomalies, 1850–2006, with respect to the 1961–1990 mean. The source data are blended land surface air temperature and SST from the HadCRUT3 series Brohan et al, 2006. Values are simple area-weighted averages.[Source The Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK]Figure 2 – Global field of surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius, relative to 1961–1990 for 2006 from the HadCRUT3 series; crosses indicate that the anomaly in a pixel is the warmest in the 157-year record[Source The Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK]Figure 3 – Global ranked surface temperatures for the warmest 50 years; inset shows global ranked surface temperatures from 1850. The size of the bars indicates the 95-per cent confidence limits associated with each year. The source data are blended land surface air temperature and SST from the HadCRUT3 series Brohan et al, 2006. Values are simple area-weighted averages for the whole year. [Source The Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK]Regional temperature anomaliesWarmer than average conditions occurred throughout most land areas of the world. The largest anomalies were observed through-out the high-latitude regions of North America and Scandinavia, and in China and Africa. Temperatures in these regions were 2–4°C above the 30-year mean. The only widespread area of negative anomalies occurred in the central part of the Russian Federation.Much of the North Atlantic was significantly warm, a pattern that reflects the current warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, which began in the mid-1990s. The southern Indian Ocean was also significantly warm. For the North Atlantic north of 35°N, the monthly anomalies in May and August have been the warmest on record at 0.94°C and 1.26°C above the 1961–1990 average, respectively.The year 2006 marked the warmest year in the 348 years of the Central England Temperature series, with also the warmest July and September ever. In the United States, the aver-age annual temperature for 2006 was nearly identical to the record set in 1998. Australia’s mean temperature for the year was 0.47°C above the 1961–1990 mean, making it the eleventh warmest year on record. In terms of area, 70 per cent of the continent experienced above-normal temperatures during 2006.The beginning of 2006 was unusually mild in large parts of North America and the western European Arctic islands, although there were harsh winter conditions in Asia, the Russian Federation and parts of eastern Europe. Canada experienced its mildest winter and spring on record, and the monthly temperatures on the Arctic island of Spitsbergen Svalbard Lufthavn for January and April included new highs with anomalies of 12.6°C and 12.2°C, respectively.Persistent extreme heat affected much of eastern Australia from late December 2005 until early March with many records being set, with, for example, the second hottest day on record in Sydney 44.2°C/111.6°F on 1 January. Heat waves were also registered in Brazil from January until March one of the highest temperatures ever recorded there was 44.6°C/112.3°F in Bom Jesus on 31 January.Figure 4 – Monthly air temperature anomalies showing departures in degrees Celsius, 1961–1990 base during the July 2006 summer heat wave over Central Europe[Source Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany]6LaneSeveral parts of Europe and the United States experienced heat waves with record tempera-tures in July and August. Air temperatures in many parts of the country reached 40°C/104°F or more. The July European average land-surface air temperature was the warmest on record at 2.7°C above the climatological normal.Spring 2006 September–November was Australia’s warmest since seasonal records were first compiled in 1950.Autumn 2006 September–November was exceptional in large parts of Europe at more than 3°C warmer than the climatological normal from the north side of the Alps to southern Norway. In many countries it was the warmest autumn since official measurements began records in central England go back to 1659 and as far back as 1706 in the Netherlands and 1768 in Denmark. December also was extraordinarily mild in Europe; in Germany it was the third warmest December since measurements began in 1901, with an anomaly of 3.4 °C.The Alpine region experienced a distinct delay of the snow season, receiving up to 60 per cent less snowfall in parts of the mountains until the end of November.Prolonged drought in some regionsLong-term drought continued in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa including parts of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and the United Republic of Tanzania. At least 11 million people were affected by Figure 5 – Significant climate anomalies and events in 2006[Source National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, USA]Lanefood shortages; Somalia was hit by the worst drought in a decade.For many areas in Australia, the lack of adequate rainfall in 2006 added to signifi-cant longer-term dry conditions, with large regions having experienced little recovery from the droughts of 2002–2003 and 1997–1998. Dry conditions have now persisted for 5 to 10 years over large parts of eastern Australia and in south-west Western Australia for around 30 years. Across the United States, moderate-to-exceptional drought persisted throughout parts of the south-west desert and eastward through the southern plains, also developing in areas west of the Great Lakes. Drought and anomalous warmth contributed to a record wildfire season in that country, with more than 3.9 million hectares burned in 2006. Drought in the south of Brazil caused significant damage to agriculture in the early part of the year with losses of about 11 per cent estimated for the soybean crop yield alone. Severe drought conditions also affected China. Millions of hectares of crops were damaged in Sichuan province during the summer and in eastern China in autumn. Significant economic losses as well as severe shortages in drinking water were other consequences. Rainfall and flooding For land areas, global precipitation in 2006 was much above the 30-year mean, the larg-est value in five years. Drier than average conditions were widespread across the United States Great Plains and Gulf Coast regions, the western coast of Canada and large parts of Australia. Conversely, the north-east United States and India experienced wetter than average conditions.In northern Africa, floods were recorded in Morocco and Algeria during 2006 causing infrastructure damage and some casualties. Rare heavy rainfall in the Algerian Sahara Desert produced severe flooding in February, affecting 50 000 people. In Bilma, Niger, the highest rainfall since 1923 affected nearly 50 000 people throughout August. In the same month, the most extensive precipitation in 50 years brought significant agricultural losses to the region of Zinder, Niger. Heavy rain also caused devastating floods in Ethiopia in August, claiming more than 600 lives. Some of the worst floods occurred in Dire Dawa and along the swollen Omo River. Again in October until early December, the Greater Horn of Africa countries experienced heavy rainfall associated with severe flooding. The worst hit areas were in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Somalia faced its worst flooding in recent history; some places have received more than six times their average monthly rainfall and hundreds of thousands of people have been affected. The 2006 floods are said to be