《WMO 2017年全球气候状况声明》(英文版).pdf
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017 WMO-No. 1212 WEATHER CLIMATE WATERThis publication was issued in collaboration with the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development ACMAD, Niger; Regional Climate Centre for the Southern South American Region RCC-SSA; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; Japan Meteorological Agency JMA; Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit CRU, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; Climate Prediction Center CPC; the National Centers for Environmental Ination NCEI and the National Hurricane Center NHC of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, United States of America; National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA GISS, United States; Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCC, Germany; National Snow and Ice Data Center NSIDC, United States; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia; Global Snow Lab, Rutgers University, United States; Regional Climate Centre for Regional Association VI, Climate Monitoring, Germany; Beijing Climate Centre, China; Tokyo Climate Centre, Japan; International Research Centre on El Niño CIIFEN, Ecuador; Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Bridgetown, Barbados; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI, Netherlands; Institute on Global Climate and Ecology IGCE, Russian Federation; All-Russia Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Ination-World Data Center ARIHMI-WDC, Russian Federation; Global Atmospheric Watch Station Ination System GAWSIS, MeteoSwiss, Switzerland; World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases WDCGG, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan; World Glacier Monitoring Service WGMS, Switzerland; World Ozone and UV Radiation Data Centre WOUDC, Environment and Climate Change, Canada; Niger Basin Authority, Niger. Other contributors are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services or equivalent of Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, The er Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United Republic of Tanzania, United States, Uruguay. Various international organizations and national institutions contributed to this publication, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNESCO; International Monetary Fund IMF; International Organization for Migration IOM; United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNISDR; United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs OCHA, World Food Programme WFP; World Health Organization WHO; the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium; the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRED; and Munich Re. The right of publication in print, electronic and any other and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. 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Cover illustration Landi Bradshaw Photography WMO-No. 1212 © World Meteorological Organization, 2018Contents Foreword 3 cutive summary 4 Key climate indicators 5 Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Greenhouse gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 The Global Carbon Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 The oceans in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The cryosphere in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Major drivers of interannual climate variability in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Precipitation in 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Extreme events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Climate risks and related impacts 29 Agriculture and food security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Population displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Economic impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Vector-borne diseases Zika in the Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 AWA VS fh s s h mmssf f s 89 DOUG INNAL DISPLANS M DSUIV WILDFIS X Y A VYAINS GG DADL Y LANDSLIDS MB OS OSL Y UIAN SASON s‚ f h f m ƒ s h 4 ILLION BY FLOODS NDYA AJO BLAING GA BAIF AGIULU 6 DAAGSANDLOSSS M- Sofh Gob 2017 WAS -Ñ YA 2013Œ2017 WAS 5YAS SA-LVL IS ONINUS GNOUS GAS ONINU ISING SAI WLLBLOW A VAG OAN AIDIFIAION ONINUS GB OANA OD LVLS 23 Foreword For the past 25 years, the World Meteorological Organization WMO has published an annual Statement on the State of the Global Climate in order to provide authoritative scientific ination about the global climate and significant weather and climate events occurring around the world. As we mark the 25 thanniversary, and following the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, the importance of the ination contained in the WMO Statement is greater than ever. WMO will continue working to increase the relevance of the ination it provides to the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change through this Statement and the annual WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. These publications complement the assessment reports that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC produces every six to seven years. Since the inaugural Statement on the State of the Global Climate, in 1993, scientific understanding of our complex climate system has progressed rapidly. This is particularly true with respect to our understanding of mankind’s contribution to climate change, and the nature and degree of such change. This includes our ability to document the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events and the degree to which they can be attributed to human influences on the climate. In the past quarter of a century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide – whose rising emissions, along with those of other greenhouse gases, are driving anthropogenic climate change – have risen from 360 parts per million ppm to more than 400 ppm. They will remain above that level for generations to come, committing our planet to a warmer future, with more weather, climate and water extremes. Climate change is also increasingly manifested in sea level rise, ocean acidification and heat, melting sea ice and other climate indicators. The global mean temperature in 2017 was approximately 1.1 °C above the pre- industrial era, more than half way towards the maximum limit of temperature increase of 2 °C sought through the Paris Agreement, which further strives to limit the increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. The year 2017 was the warmest on record without an El Niño event, and one of the three warmest years behind the record-setting 2016. The world’s nine warmest years have all occurred since 2005, and the five warmest since 2010. Extreme weather claimed lives and destroyed livelihoods in many countries in 2017. Fuelled by warm sea-surface temperatures, the North Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest ever for the United States, and eradicated decades of development gains in small islands in the Caribbean such as Dominica. Floods uprooted millions of people on the Indian subcontinent, whilst drought is exacerbating poverty and increasing migration pressures in the Horn of Africa. It is no surprise that extreme weather events are identified as the most prominent risk facing humanity in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2018. Because the societal and economic impacts of climate change have become so severe, WMO has partnered with other United Nations organizations to include ination in the Statement on how climate has affected migration patterns, food security, health and other sectors. Such impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable nations, as evidenced in a recent study by the International Monetary Fund, which warned that a 1 °C increase in temperature would cut significantly economic growth rates in many low-income countries. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO Members, international and regional data centres and agencies, and climate experts from around the world for their contributions, and to United Nations sister agencies for their valuable on societal and economic impacts. They have greatly assisted in ensuring that this annual Statement achieves the highest scientific standards and societal relevance and ins action on the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. P. Taalas Secretary-General 4 cutive summary Global mean temperatures in 2017 were 1.1 °C ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels. Whilst 2017 was a cooler year than the record- setting 2016, it was still one of the three warmest years on record, and the warmest not influenced by an El Niño event. The average global temperature for 2013–2017 is close to 1 °C above that for 1850–1900 and is also the highest five-year average on record. The world also continued to see rising sea levels, with some acceleration, and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. The cryosphere continued its contraction, with Arctic and Antarctic sea ice shrinking. The overall risk of heat-related illness or death has climbed steadily since 1980, with around 30 of the world’s population now living in climatic conditions that deliver deadly temperatures at least 20 days a year. There were many significant weather and climate events in 2017, including a very active North Atlantic hurricane season, major monsoon floods in the Indian subcontinent, and continuing severe drought in parts of east Africa. This contributed to 2017 being the year with the highest documented economic losses associated with severe weather and climate events. Extreme weather events continue to be rated by the World Economic Forum as amongst the most significant risks facing humanity, both in terms of likelihood and impact. 1Massive internal displacement in the context of drought and food insecurity continues 1World Economic Forum, 2018 The Global Risks Report 2018. across Somalia. From November 2016 to December 2017, 892 000 drought-related displacements were recorded by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR. In August and September 2017, the three major and devastating hurricanes that made landfall in the southern United States and in several Caribbean islands in rapid succession broke modern records for such weather extremes and for loss and damage. The ination used in this report is sourced from a large number of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMHSs and associated institutions, as well as Regional Climate Centres, the World Climate Research Programme WCRP, the Global Atmosphere Watch GAW and Global Cryosphere Watch GCW. Ination has also been supplied by a number of other international organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO, the World Food Programme WFP, the World Health Organization WHO, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration IOM, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization IOC-UNESCO. Values of key climate indicators Indicator Time period Value Ranking Global mean surface-temperature anomaly 1981–2010 baseline 2017, annual mean 0.46°C Second-highest on record Global ocean heat content change, 0–700 metre layer 2017, annual mean 1.581 x 1023 J Highest on