中国碳排放特征及其动态演进分析

là ° ù2008- 03- 28T€eº±¥, « V 3,ùîZ_¹ ÷ÌâÜ6П¦bYßT€ÛÁ, q,p,ùîZ_¹ ÷Ü6П¦aÖÌÜ6©b*‡êÁªÊ[ “94001;â† Wª® ¦Œ¦û9ÃNCET- 05- 0451; Ê 8 ÈSÐ[ “BR2007039b中国碳排放特征及其动态演进分析*±¥ ÛÁ Ò þ  2ØvйØÐZSÐÐý, Ê 2Ø210093K1 ¦ËÜ6Z NV ü,Ü6ZÐÌâÉ i“ á M¥ó“b¹N,¿EKC ˜,¨ Üs ¥Å ¥s³ZE,yÏS †b¥y Ís³ ˜,ç s1990- 2005 MÜ6 aÁ 0,B2 0,ïC‚ þ üA¥N˜ t ],  †b  ÛÜ6¥Z5  6, ûBç¥ £ Ü,7ª»  6,ƒ uY¿Bîil ¥š/U0˜˜, ª üáS¥ †bÐÜ6Z­Wd™a 4[x]¥Z¨ bV wL˜ŸA, ¦GDPrž6000P· H 1996 M, wLµ î/†b’rž7000P· H 2000 M wLá Î báSÜ69ÉÐ †b­W‚ø쥚/U0˜1“,ƒ9£ áS †bµoîŸ,ÐÜ69É­Wµ‚xØŸ,¹N/ ës³ ˜Ï †bª¥ÅÉ›ùî,„Ü6 aÁ B »/ Œ ‹ªaê ™øa¶n ÷¥l ,« h †Ÿ¦ L ̪ ÁáS †bûà  6¥»B1y ÍbÌâÜ6Ÿ¦¥ L ¿M ‚] †b†ÊÐSEa †b†Ê­Wa uÐ u­W¥1“,Ÿ©a 5ë,{v¿.ÏS †b¥y Ís³ ˜ L£s1995- 2004[J].ÏS ¦g ÷ÐÌâ, 2006,166158161.[Xu Guoquan, Liu Zeyuan, Jiang Zhaohua. DecompositionModelandEmpirical Study of Carbon Emissions for China, 1995- 2004[J].ChinaPopulation Resources and Environment, 2006, 166 158161.][16]¥Ð,ˆc.¿ “î¥CO2h † ¥ ’ç[J].ÄýÉZ,2006, 25 121467 1470.[WangGang, FengXiao. CO2 EmissionReductionThrough Energy Integration [J]. Chemical Industry andEngineeringProgress, 2006.25121467 1470.][17]GrossmanGM,KruegerAB. EnvironmentalImpactsoftheNorthAmericanFreeTrade Agreement [M] . NBER, WorkingPaper, 1991.3914.Character of Carbon Emission in China and Its Dynamic Development AnalysisHU Chu2zhi HUANGXian2jin ZHONGTai2yang TAN DanSchoolofGeographicandOceanographicSciences ofNanjingUniversity, NanjingJiangsu210093, ChinaAbstract From thehistoryofhuman economicdevelopment, It. s shows that thereis closerelationshipbetween economicdevelopment andenvironment quality. Thusthis articlebuilds afactors decompositionmodel of carbon emission in China, and analyzes thecontribution thateconomicscale, industrialstructure and carbon emission intensitymaketo carbon emission quantitatively from 1990to2005, namely scaleeffects, structuraleffects andtechnical effects usingthe decomposition of average distribution cushion which is based on the EKCmodel.TheresultshowsthattheaverageoftheeffectchangesofcarbonemissionsinChinais19.55, theeffectsbroughtbyeconomicscale,industrialstructureand carbon emission intensity are15.76, - 0.86 and4.65. Generallyspeaking, Therelation between carbonemission andChina. s economywasmore like an / N0 Curve, Economyscale is aprimary drivefactor and haveincrement effect to carbonemission. Fromotherness ofdifferent industrygettingbigger, theindustryrestructurehas certain decrementeffect tocarbon emissions, buttherestrainfunction isnotobvious, theindustrial structureneedtobefurtheroptimized; Thetechnicaleffect ispositiveanditsvolatilityislarge.Fromthe perspective of reducing carbon emission the current technology has not played to its advantages. This research will promoteunderstandingthetheoryabout between carbonemissionandeconomydevelopment ,andpossessreferencuebyallmeanstotheadjustmentofindustrialdevelopment.Key words carbon emission; EnvironmentalKuznets CurvesEKC; decomposition analysismodel; effect42ÏS ¦g ÷ÐÌâ 2008 M »3 ù