欧洲经济预测。2020年春季.pdf
Economic and Financial AffairsSpring 2020ISSN 2443-8014 onlineEuropean Economic ForecastINSTITUTIONAL PAPER 125 | MAY 2020EUROPEAN ECONOMYEuropean Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developments prepared by the European Commission s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the ination contained in this publication. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from https//ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en. Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 PDF ISBN 978-92-76-16314-5 ISSN 2443-8014 doi10.2765/788367 KC-BC-20-002-EN-N © European Union, 2020 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39. For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. CREDIT Cover photography © iS European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economic Forecast Spring 2020 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 125 ABBREVIATIONS iii Countries and regions EU European Union EA Euro area BE Belgium BG Bulgaria CZ Czechia DK Denmark DE Germany EE Estonia IE Ireland EL Greece ES Spain FR France HR Croatia IT Italy CY Cyprus LV Latvia LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg HU Hungary MT Malta NL The Netherlands AT Austria PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania SI Slovenia SK Slovakia FI Finland SE Sweden UK United Kingdom CN China JP Japan US United States of America CIS Commonwealth of Independent States EFTA European Free Trade Association EMU Economic and Monetary Union MENA Middle East and North Africa ROW Rest of the World Economic variables and institutions BIS Bank for International Settlements CCCI Composite Credit Cost Indicators CPI Consumer price index ECB European Central Bank ECDC European Center for Disease Prevention and Control ESI Economic Sentiment Indicator GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IMF International Monetary Fund iv NBER National Bureau of Economic Research OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index VAT Value-Added Tax WHO World Health Organization WTO World Trade Organization Other abbreviations CICE Tax credit for employment and competitiveness COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 FDI Foreign Direct Investment GVCs Global value chains NFC Non-Financial Corporations SME Small and medium-sized enterprise SSM Single Supervisory Mechanism PEPP Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme Graphs/Tables/Units bbl Barrel bn Billion bp. /bps. Basis point / points lhs Left hand scale mn Million pp. / pps. Percentage point / points pt. / pts. Point / points Q Quarter q-o-q Quarter-on-quarter percentage change rhs Right hand scale tr Trillions y-o-y Year-on-year percentage change Currencies EUR Euro ECU European currency unit BGN Bulgarian lev CNY Chinese yuan, Renminbi CZK Czech koruna DKK Danish krone GBP Pound sterling HUF Hungarian forint HRK Croatian kuna ISK Icelandic krona MKD Macedonian denar NOK Norwegian krone PLN Polish zloty RON New Romanian leu RSD Serbian dinar SEK Swedish krona CHF Swiss franc JPY Japanese yen RMB Renminbi TRY Turkish lira USD US dollar CONTENTS v Overview 1 PART I Economic outlook for EA and EU 7 1. Key features 9 1.1. The main issues of the forecast 9 1.2. Recent developments 10 1.3. Key factors behind the forecast 13 1.4. The forecast and its main results 20 2. Economic outlook 29 2.1. International environment 29 2.2. Financial markets 32 2.3. GDP and components 37 2.4. Labour market 50 2.5. Inflation 53 2.6. Public finances 57 2.7. Macroeconomic policies in the euro area 60 2.8. Risks 62 3. Special issues 65 3.1. How the pandemic shaped the forecast 65 4. Boxes 73 PART II Prospects by individual economy 77 Euro Area Member States 79 1. Belgium 80 2. Germany 82 3. Estonia 84 4. Ireland 86 5. Greece 88 6. Spain 90 7. France 92 8. Italy 94 9. Cyprus 96 10. Latvia 98 11. Lithuania 100 12. Luxembourg 102 13. Malta 104 14. The Netherlands 106 15. Austria 108 16. Portugal 110 17. Slovenia 112 18. Slovakia 114 19. Finland 116 vi Non-EA Member States 119 20. Bulgaria 120 21. Czechia 122 22. Denmark 124 23. Croatia 126 24. Hungary 128 25. Poland 130 26. Romania 132 27. Sweden 134 Candidate Countries 137 28. Albania 138 29. Montenegro 140 30. North Macedonia 142 31. Serbia 144 32. Turkey 146 Other non-EU Countries 149 33. The United Kingdom 150 34. The United States 152 35. Japan 154 36. China 156 37. EFTA 158 38. Russian Federation 161 Statistical Annex 165 LIST OF TABLES 1. Overview - the spring 2020 forecast 1 I.2.1. International environment 30 I.2.2. Financing side - euro area and EU 36 I.2.3. Composition of growth - euro area 38 I.2.4. Composition of growth - EU 40 I.2.5. Labour market outlook - euro area and EU 52 I.2.6. Inflation outlook - euro area and EU 56 I.2.7. General Government budgetary position - euro area and EU 59 I.3.1. Assumptions for the simulated scenarios 67 I.3.2. Growth deviation from non-pandemic baseline in 2020 68 LIST OF GRAPHS I.1.1. Real GDP, euro area 9 I.1.2. HICP, euro area 10 I.1.3. Recent developments GDP and consumption, euro area 10 I.1.4. Recent developments Investment and foreign trade, euro area excl. Ireland 10 I.1.5. PMI Suppliers Delivery Times Index, Manufacturing 11 I.1.6. COVID-19 infections, China, EU and US 12 vii I.1.7. Manufacturing, Services, and Construction PMIs, euro area and Member States 12 I.1.8. Electricity demand in March and April 2020, largest Member States 13 I.1.9. Air traffic, March and April 2020, Eurocontrol network and largest Member States 13 I.1.10. Selected economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe 15 I.1.11. Trade policy and health care uncertainty in the US 16 I.1.12. World Pandemic Uncertainty Index and Discussion About Pandemics Index 16 I.1.13. World Uncertainty Index 16 I.1.14. Recessions and rebounds in the euro area, real GDP, 1970 Q1 - 2019 Q4 17 I.1.15. Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, EU 21 I.1.16. GDP declines during Great Depression, first oil crisis, and Global Financial Crisis, euro area 22 I.1.17. Forecast Global economic activity, world trade and euro area export markets 23 I.1.18. Comparing recessions, 2008-09 crisis vs COVID-19 recession, euro area 23 I.1.19. Forecast Domestic demand components, euro area 24 I.1.20. Forecast GDP, growth contributions and foreign trade, euro area 24 I.1.21. Forecast Employment, wages and real disposable incomes, euro area 24 I.1.22. Forecast Change in public finance indicators, 2019-2020/21, EA and large Member States 25 I.1.23. COVID-19 and its asymmetric growth impact in euro area Member States 25 I.1.24. Forecast Employment and domestic demand growth 2019-2021, euro area and largest Member States 25 I.1.25. Comparing recessions, 2008-09 crisis vs. COVID-19 recession, Member States 26 I.1.26. COVID-19 and forecast scissors , selected forecasts for 2020 and 2021, euro area 26 I.2.1. Growth in global GDP and global PMIs 29 I.2.2. Brent oil price assumptions 31 I.2.3. GDP forecast, spring 2020 forecast vs autumn 2019 forecast 32 I.2.4. Contributions to non-EU world import growth 32 I.2.5. Portfolio flows to emerging markets 33 I.2.6. Benchmark 10-year government bond yields, international comparison 34 I.2.7. Euro area sovereign bonds and spreads of selected Member States 35 I.2.8. Corporate bond spreads, 5-year maturity, euro area 35 I.2.9. Stock market perance, EuropeStoxx and components 35 I.2.10. ESI breakdown, proportion of negative monthly changes 40 I.2.11. Daily truck toll mileage, Germany 40 I.2.12. Real GDP growth path, euro area 42 I.2.13. Cumulative growth perance- distribution across EU Member States 43 I.2.14. Share of social consumption expenditures, euro area 44 viii I.2.15. Consumers assessment of the past and future general economic situation, euro area 44 I.2.16. Real gross disposable income and components, euro area 45 I.2.17. Net taxes, social contributions and transfers, contribution to income in 2020 45 I.2.18. Investment developments, euro area excluding Ireland 47 I.2.19. Export growth contributions, euro area 50 I.2.20. Employment expectations, Commission surveys, euro area 51 I.2.21. Atypical employment, euro area and selected Member States, 2019 52 I.2.22. Unemployment rate, euro area and Member States 53 I.2.23. Inflation breakdown, euro area 54 I.2.24. Oil price and selected producer price indices, euro area 55 I.2.25. Inflation expectations derived from implied forward inflation-linked swap rates 57 I.2.26. Budgetary developments, international perspective 58 I.2.27. General government balance change and decomposition of the drivers 58 I.2.28. Expenditure and revenues developments, euro area 59 I.2.29. Public debt development in selected Member States 59 I.2.30. Euro area interest rates 60 I.2.31. Composite credit cost indicators, euro area 61 I.2.32. Change in the structural primary balance, euro area 61 I.2.33. Real long-term interest rates and change in structural primary balance, euro area 62 I.3.1. Decomposition of euro area GDP, deviations from pre-crisis level 67 I.3.2. GDP growth deviation from non-pandemic baseline, 2020 70 I.3.3. Output loss, GDP level deviation from non-pandemic baseline 70 I.3.4. GDP deviation from non-pandemic scenario, euro area 71 I.3.5. Impact of sectoral demand shocks on the GDP of euro area countries 72 LIST OF BOXES I.4.1. Some technical elements behind the forecast 73 FOREWORD ix In a matter of just a few weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected public life around the globe. The virus is a public health challenge of unprecedented dimensions. The first concern of governments around the world is to protect the health and safety of their citizens. But it has also completely modified the outlook for the European and world economy. To contain the virus, EU Member States have had to take drastic measures that have put their economies into a state of hibernation. Economic activity in the EU dropped by around one third, practically overnight. Without such measures to contain the pandemic, however, the ultimate damage to society and the economy would doubtlessly be greater. In the current quarter, economic output in the EU is set to be almost 16 lower than in the last quarter of 2019. Although activity is expected to pick up again with the just-initiated, gradual easing of containment measures, the contraction in EU GDP this year is expected to be 7½, far deeper than during the financial crisis in 2009. In the near-term, the lockdowns implemented in most Member States and globally, reduce supply as many non-essential activities are suspended, delivery of s is disrupted, and workers are unavailable due to sickness, quarantine or because they have to take care of relatives and children whose schools are closed. Provided that the policy measures taken to support incomes, jobs, liquidity and investment are effective, economic activity should rebound once the confinement is gradually relaxed. Even so, demand is set to remain subdued for longer as workers concerned about their employment prospects will tend to save a higher share of their income, and firms faced with uncertainty about future sales will delay or cancel investment. Even if most of the impact is expected to be temporary, the pandemic will likely leave some persistent scars. The shortfall of investment compared to the autumn forecast, estimated at around EUR 850 billion in 2020 and 2021, and the drop in employment will reduce the economy’s production potential, preventing a return to the previous trajectory of output. As the coronavirus has spread across Europe, all Member States are faced with the same set of challenges. The EU and its Member States have reacted quickly. Governments have put in place large programmes in order to keep the economic tissue intact during the lockdowns. They involve liquidity support for firms to avoid bankruptcies, and support for workers to dampen income losses and avoid a surge in unemployment, as well as measures to avoid a financial meltdown. The actions of Member States have been complemented by actions at the EU level. These actions include a full flexibilisation of the use of the remaining structural funds, and the political agreements on the creation of a EUR 100 billion support scheme to mitigate unemployment risks, a EUR 25 billion guarantee fund for SMEs and a pandemic credit line from the European Stability Mechanism. Forceful action by the ECB has strongly reduced the tail risks for the EU economy. Without these measures, the contraction in EU GDP would have been about 4¾ percentage points deeper in 2020. Fundamental uncertainty surrounds this forecast. The danger of a deeper and more protracted recession is very real. The point forecasts presented in this document should therefore be understood as just one among several possible scenarios. Different assumptions to those made here about the length of the lockdowns, the confinement measures still necessary in the period ahead, and the effectiveness of the policy response would lead to very different projections. Another surge in infections, for example, could reduce GDP by an additional 3 percentage points. The downside risks are thus particularly large. The COVID-19 crisis risks leading to a further widening of economic divergences in the EU. While the pandemic is a symmetric shock, the impacts differ across Member States, reflecting the severity of the pandemic and stringency of related containment measures, different exposures due e.g. to the size of the tourism sector, and the available space for discretionary fiscal policy responses. As containment measures are starting to be gradually lifted, a strong European recovery plan needs to complement national action to rapidly bring those who lost their jobs back into employment, minimise scars from a prolonged shortfall in investment and, last but not least, compensate for the differences in the policy space among Member States. The risk otherwise is that the crisis will lead to severe distortions within the Single Market and to entrenched economic, financial and social divergences between euro area Member States that could European Economic Forecast, S