【地区经济展望】撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济展望:应对不确定性.pdf
2019 OCT REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Navigating Uncertainty INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDWorld Economic and Financial Surveys Regional Economic Outlook 19 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND OCT Sub-Saharan Africa Navigating Uncertainty©2019 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa navigating uncertainty. Other titles Sub-Saharan Africa navigating uncertainty. | World economic and financial surveys. Description [Washington, DC] International Monetary Fund, 2019. | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440. | Oct. 19. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers ISBN 9781513514055 paper ISBN 9781513515731 Web PDF LCSH Africa, Sub-SaharanEconomic conditions. | Economic developmentAfrica, Sub-Saharan. | Africa, Sub-SaharanEconomic policy. Classification LCC HC800.R4 2019 Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 U.S.A. Tel. 202 623-7430 Fax 202 623-7201 E-mail publicationsimf.org www.imf.org www.elibrary.imf.org The Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa is published twice a year, in the spring and fall, to review developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its cutive Board, or IMF Management.iii Contents Abbreviations vi Acknowledgments .vii cutive Summary .ix 1. Navigating Uncertainty .1 Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects 2 Risks to the Outlook .9 Policies 10 References .21 2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa .23 Product Market Competition Some Stylized Facts .25 Competition and Macroeconomic Perance 29 Firm Dynamics and Competition .31 Boosting Competition in Domestic Markets .32 Conclusions .35 References .38 3. Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa Causes, Symptoms, and Cures41 The Size, Composition, and Evolution of Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa 42 Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation .45 Symptoms Macroeconomic Effects of Domestic Payment Arrears .47 Cures Clearance and Prevention of Arrears .50 Conclusion .54 References .58 Statistical Appendix 59 Background Paper and Expanded Statistical Appendix Online Boxes 1.1. Improving Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa 18 1.2. Lessons from Other Regional Trade Arrangements for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement .19 2.1. Firm Markups and Trade Liberalization .37 3.1. Domestic Arrears Data Collection rcise .56 3.2. Arrears Accumulation and Fiscal Multipliers 56 Table 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa Firm Markup and Profitability .27https//www.imf.org//media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2019/October/English/backgroundpapers.ashxlaenOnline Expanded Statistical Appendix Tables; Online Annex Chapter 2Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa; Online Annex Chapter 3Domestic Arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa Causes, Symptoms, and Cures; Publications of the IMF African Department 2013–19CONTENTS REGiONAL ECONOMiC OUTLOOK SUB-SAHARAN AFRiCA v iv Figures Chapter 1 1.1. Global Import Volume Growth and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, July 2017–July 2019 .2 1.2. Projected Change in Commodity Prices Expected Changes, Average 2019–20 versus 2018 3 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa Eurobond Issuances, 2010–19 3 1.4. Sahel Countries Conflicts with Fatalities, 2018 3 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP per Capita, 1990–2023 .4 1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP Growth versus Merchandise Exports Concentration Index .4 1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa Histogram of GDP Growth, 2022 .5 1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Depreciation and Consumer Price Index Inflation, 2019 .5 1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa Fiscal Deficit and Consumer Price Index Inflation, 2019 Projections .6 1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa Public Debt, 2011–23 .6 1.1 1. Sub-Saharan Africa Change in Noncommodity Primary Fiscal Deficit, 2013 versus 2018 6 1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa Debt Risk Status for PRGT Eligible Low-Income Developing Countries, 2008–19 7 1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa Composition of Public Debt, 2000–17 7 1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa Contributions to Current Account Adjustment 8 1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa Reserve Buffers .8 1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa Domestic Arrears and Nonpering Loan Ratio, 2018 .8 1.17. Sub-Saharan Africa Change in Credit to the Private Sector and Domestic Currency Public Debt, 2014–18 8 1.18. Sub-Saharan Africa Export Growth, Jan. 2014–Jun. 2019 .9 1.19. Sub-Saharan Africa Foreign Currency Share in Total Debt, Median, 2010–19 9 1.20. Downside Risk Scenario Impact of Escalating Trade Tensions, Global Slowdown, and Tightening Global Financial Conditions on Sub-Saharan African Growth 10 1.21. Incidence of Natural Disasters, 1980s–2000s .10 1.22. Sub-Saharan Africa Net Job Creation, 2010–30 11 1.23. Sub-Saharan Africa Changes in Monetary Policy Rates since December 2018 11 1.24. Sub-Saharan Africa Primary Fiscal Balance and Debt-Stabilizing Balance, 2014–18 .12 1.25. Sub-Saharan Africa Change in Noncommodity Primary Fiscal Deficit, 2018 versus 2023 12 1.26. Sub-Saharan Africa Bank Credit to Private Sector, 2006–18 .14 1.27. Number of Available Macroprudential Measures per Country, 2016 .15 1.28. Sub-Saharan Africa and Selected Regions Value Chain Related Trade, 1990s–2010s 16 1.29. Gender Inequality Index and Gini Coefficient, A verage 2010–17 17CONTENTS REGiONAL ECONOMiC OUTLOOK SUB-SAHARAN AFRiCA v iv Chapter 2 2.1. Selected Groups of Countries Product Market Competition, 2007–17 .25 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa Product Market Competition, 2007–17 .26 2.3. Selected Groups of Countries Firm-Level Competition Indicators .26 2.4. Selected Groups of Countries Competition Indicators and Number of Competitors 27 2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa Firm Markups, 2002–17 .28 2.6. Selected Groups of Countries Firm Markups by Sector 28 2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa Competition and Macroeconomic Perance .30 2.8. Sub-Saharan Africa Price Differentials with Other Country Groups .30 2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa Impact of Increased Local Competition on Prices 31 2.10. Estimated Impact of Markups on Firm Perance .32 2.11. Sub-Saharan Africa Structural Res, 1973–2014 .33 2.12. Sub-Saharan Africa Anti-Monopoly Enforcement 34 Chapter 3 3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa Share of Countries with Recorded Domestic Arrears, 2018 .42 3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa Stock of Domestic Arrears by Country Group, 2018 42 3.3. Sub-Saharan Africa Level of Stock of Domestic Arrears and Debt Sustainability Analysis Rating, 2017 .43 3.4. PEFA Scores for Domestic Arrears Stock .43 3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa Share of Countries with Unrecorded Domestic Arrears, 2018 .43 3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–17 44 3.7. Sub-Saharan Africa Frequency of Domestic Arrears-Related Terms in IMF Staff Reports, 2005–17 44 3.8. Sub-Saharan Africa Domestic Arrears Breakdown, Number of Countries .44 3.9. Sub-Saharan Africa Domestic Arrears Related to Conditionality in IMF Arrangements, 2002–18 .45 3.10. Sub-Saharan Africa Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation 45 3.11. Sub-Saharan Africa Selected Governance Indicators and Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–18 46 3.12. Sub-Saharan Africa Selected Fiscal Variables and Stock of Domestic Arrears, 2005–1846 3.13. Accumulation of Domestic Arrears Following Fiscal Shocks .47 3.14. Causes of Domestic Arrears Accumulation Regression Output 47 3.15. Transmission Channels of Domestic Arrears Buildup to the Economy .48 3.16. Sub-Saharan Africa The Macroeconomic Impact of Domestic Payment Arrears .49 3.17. Sub-Saharan Africa The Heterogenous Effect of Domestic Payment Arrears on Private Sector Perance 50 3.18. Sub-Saharan Africa Government Payment Discipline and Public Attitudes toward Trust, 2005–18 51 3.19. Repaying ArrearsStylized Decision Tree .52vi AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African Development Bank AML/CFT Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area CCSA Competition Commission of South Africa CET common external tariff CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPI consumer price index DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis DSGE dynamic stochastic general equilibrium GDP gross domestic product GVC global value chain EAC East African Community ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EPU economic policy uncertainty FDI foreign direct investment IMF International Monetary Fund LAC Latin America and the Caribbean MENAP Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan MFN most-favored-nation NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NEER nominal effective exchange rate NPLs nonpering loans OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PEFA public expenditure and financial accountability PFM public financial management PRGT Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust RTAs Regional Trade Agreements REO Regional Economic Outlook IMF SACU Southern African Customs Union SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SOEs state-owned enterprises SSA sub-Saharan Africa UNDP United Nations Development Programme VAT value-added tax WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WBES World Bank Enterprise Survey WEO World Economic Outlook IMF WTO World Trade Organization Abbreviations Sub-Saharan Africa Country Abbreviations AGO Angola CIV Côte d’Ivoire LSO Lesotho STP São Tomé a slash or virgule / between years or months for example, 2005/06 indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY for example, FY2006. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point.ix cutive Summary 1. NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020. Growth is forecast to be slower than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region. The downward revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. Growth prospects vary considerably across countries in the region in 2019 and beyond. Growth is projected to remain strong in non-resource-intensive countries, averaging about 6 percent. As a result, 24 countries, home to about 500 million people, will see their per capita income rise faster than the rest of the world. In contrast, growth is expected to move in slow gear in resource-intensive countries 2½ percent. Hence, 21 countries are projected to have per capita growth lower than the world average. Inflation is expected to ease going forward. While the average sub-Saharan African-wide debt burden is stabilizing, elevated public debt vulnerabilities and low external buffers will continue to limit policy space in several countries. The outlook faces further downside risks. External headwinds have intensified compared to April and include the threat of rising protectionism, a sharp increase in risk premiums or reversal in capital inflows owing to tightening global financial conditions, and a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in China and in the euro area. Regionally, near-term downside risks include climate shocks, intensification of security challenges, and the potential spread of the Ebola outbreak beyond the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In addition, fiscal slippages, including those ahead of elections in some countries, and a lack of re in key countries could add to deficit and debt pressures. Over the medium term, a successful implementation of res, including in the context of the African Continental Free T rade Area AfCFTA, could pose significant upside risks. A three-pronged strategy that reduces risks and promotes sustained growth across all countries in the region requires Carefully calibrating the near-term policy mix Amid limited buffers and elevated debt vulnerabilities in some countries, policymakers have limited room for maneuver to counter external headwinds. The room for supporting growth remains mainly on the monetary policy side and is restricted to countries where inflation pressures are muted and growth is below potential. In the event downside risks materialize, fiscal and monetary policy could be carefully recalibrated to support growth, in a manner consistent with debt sustainability and available financing, and as part of a credible medium-term adjustment plan. In countries that are growing slowly, the pace of adjustment could be made more gradual, provided financing is available, or its composition fine-tuned to minimize the impact on growth. In fast-growing countries that are facing elevated debt vulnerabilities, the priority remains rebuilding buffers.