ADAPT NOW A GLOBAL CALL FOR LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE RESILIENCE AdaptOurWorldTHE GLOBAL COMMISSION ON ADAPTATION The Global Commission on Adaptation seeks to accelerate adaptation by elevating the political visibility of adaptation and focusing on concrete solutions. The Commission is led by Ban Ki-moon, 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations, Bill Gates, Co-chair of the Bill and it is convened by 20 countries. A global network of research partners and advisors support the Commission. The Commission is co-managed by World Resources Institute and the Global Center on Adaptation. ABOUT THIS REPORT This report focuses on making the case for climate adaptation, providing specific insights and recommendations in key sectors food security, the natural environment, water, cities and urban areas, infrastructure, disaster risk management, and finance. It is designed to inspire action among decision-makers, including heads of state and government officials, mayors, business cutives, investors, and community leaders. COMMISSIONERS Ban Ki-moon, 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations Bill Gates, Co-chair of the Bill it shares the Commission’s goal of catalyzing global adaptation solutions around the world. These national governments have not been asked to ally endorse this report. Argentina Bangladesh Canada China Costa Rica Denmark Ethiopia Germany Grenada India Indonesia Marshall Islands Mexico Netherlands Senegal South Africa United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Uzbekistan VietnamTABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword . 1 cutive Summary . 3 Part I A Call to Action . 8 Chapter 1 Adapt Now 9 Part II Accelerating Adaptation in Key Systems 22 Chapter 2 Food Security and Livelihoods of Small-Scale Producers 23 Chapter 3 Natural Environment . 30 Chapter 4 Water 35 Chapter 5 Cities and Urban Areas . 39 Chapter 6 Infrastructure 44 Chapter 7 Disaster Risk Management . 48 Chapter 8 Financing Adaptation 52 Part III The Immediate Imperative A Year of Action 58 Acknowledgments / Partners . 64 Acronyms 71 Endnotes . 72FOREWORD A young woman in Bangladesh hears a siren of an incoming typhoon and moves her family to safety. A farmer in Zimbabwe uses a new variety of maize that is more resistant to drought. In Denmark, engineers redesign city streets to make them less prone to flooding. A business cutive in Indonesia uses data and maps on water risk to in his investments. An urban planner in Colombia paints roofs white to deflect dangerous heat. This is what climate adaptation looks like. Examples like these are taking root and beginning to spread. Of course, not all communities have the same capacity to adapt, and those in fragile areas and living in poverty are most vulnerable. The world has a moral responsibility to respond in a way that improves lives and livelihoods for all. To end poverty and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, we must drastically cut emissions and adapt to a warming world. The sooner we act, the better off we will be. Adaptation is an economic imperative as well. This report finds that investing in adaptation, and in the innovation that comes with it, can unlock new opportunities and spur change across the globe. Adaptation can provide a triple dividend it avoids economic losses, brings positive gains, and delivers additional social and environmental benefits. There are bright spots, but so far the response has been gravely insufficient. Meanwhile, the climate crisis is here, now wildfires ravage fragile habitats, city taps run dry, droughts scorch the land, and floods destroy people’s homes and livelihoods. What will it take to meet the challenge Government officials and business leaders need to radically rethink how they make decisions. We need a revolution in understanding, planning, and finance that makes climate risks visible, incorporates these risks into all decisions, and releases public and private financial flows. Adaptation can bring out bold ideas and inspire innovation beyond what people currently think is possible. Most of all, we need political leadership that shakes people out of their collective slumber. This Commission was ed to raise the visibility of climate adaptation on the global agenda and inspire action. It brings together over 30 Commissioners and 20 convening countries, from nearly every sector and every region of the world. We are united by a collective determination to accelerate adaptation. We are working with many partners to support a Year of Action, starting in September 2019, that will jump-start the necessary transitions for change. Together, these actions a comprehensive plat for urgent, bold, and equitable adaptation. We have reason for hope. Throughout history, people have adapted to change. In turbulent times, they have found ways to reduce risks and create new opportunities. With ingenuity and resourcefulness, people have overcome the most extraordinary challengesfrom eradicating disease to rebounding from the devastation of war. We need this courageous spirit today. We call for global leadership on climate adaptation to create safer, stronger, and thriving communities around the world. Our work is just beginning. We hope you will join us to adapt our world. Ban Ki-moon Chair Bill Gates Co-chair Kristalina Georgieva Co-chair Adapt Now A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience September 2019 1We face a crisis. Climate change is upon us, and its impacts are getting more severe with each passing year. Global actions to slow climate change are promising but insufficient. We must invest in a massive effort to adapt to conditions that are now inevitable higher temperatures, rising seas, fiercer storms, more unpredictable rainfall, and more acidic oceans. We are not starting from a standstill. There are many bright spots where adaptation efforts have begunbut we need more urgency, innovation, and scale. Adaptation is not an alternative to a redoubled effort to stop climate change, but an essential complement to it. Failing to lead and act on adaptation will result in a huge economic and human toll, causing widespread increases in poverty and severely undermining long-term global economic prospects. The good news is that adaptation, done right, will lead to better growth and development. It will also save lives, protect nature, reduce inequalities, and create opportunities. We can do it.CUTIVE SUMMARY ADAPT NOW THE URGENCY OF ACTION Climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity, with far-reaching and devastating impacts on people, the envi- ronment, and the economy. Climate impacts affect all regions of the world and cut across all sectors of society. People who did the least to cause the problemespecially those living in poverty and fragile areasare most at risk. Consider Without adaptation, climate change may depress growth in global agriculture yields up to 30 percent by 2050. The 500 million small farms around the world will be most affected. The number of people who may lack sufficient water, at least one month per year, will soar from 3.6 billion today to more than 5 billion by 2050. Rising seas and greater storm surges could force hundreds of millions of people in coastal cities from their homes, with a total cost to coastal urban areas of more than 1 trillion each year by 2050. Climate change could push more than 100 million people within developing countries below the poverty line by 2030. The costs of climate change on people and the economy are clear. The toll on human life is irrefutable. The question is how will the world respond Will we delay and pay more or plan ahead and prosper The Imperatives for Accelerating Adaptation Accelerating climate change adaptation is a human, environmental, and economic imperative THE HUMAN IMPERATIVE Climate change exacerbates existing inequities by widening the gap between people with wealth and people living in poverty. It has a disproportionate impact on women and girls, who, in most of the world, have little voice in decisions that affect their lives. It also puts an unfair burden on future generations. Solutions to these climate-related inequities must address underlying power structures and dynamics. We will not accept a world where only some can adapt, and others cannot. THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPERATIVE The natural environment is humanity’s first line of defense against floods, droughts, heat waves, and hurricanes. A thriving natural environment is fundamental to adaptation in every human enterprise. Yet, one in four species is facing extinction, about a quarter of all ice-free land is now subject to degradation, ocean temperatures and acidity are rising, and climate change is accelerating the loss of natural assets everywhere. There is still time to protect and work with nature to build resilience and reduce climate risks at all scales, but the window is closing. THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE Adapting now is in our strong economic self-interest. The Commission found that the overall rate of return on investments in improved resilience is very high, with benefit-cost ratios ranging from 21 to 101, and in some cases even higher see Figure ES.1. Specifically, our research finds that investing 1.8 trillion globally in five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate 7.1 trillion in total net benefits. In other words, failing to seize the economic benefits of climate adaptation with high-return investments would undermine trillions of dollars in potential growth and prosperity. The five areas we considered for this estimate are early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture crop production, global mangrove protection, and investments in making water resources more resilient. These areas are illustrative, based on available data on economic returns the full report has broader recommendations across seven systems that go beyond these five areas. Adapt Now A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience September 2019 3