中国可持续能源项目The China Sustainable Energy Program能源基金会The Energy Foundation项目成果报告系列Technical Report推广既有建筑绿色化改造的机制与政策研究报告Policy Study on the Promotion of Existing Building Green Retrofit中国建筑科学研究院2012年11月项目信息项目资助号R-1110-14994Grant NumberR-1110-14994项目期11/1/2011-10/31/2012Grant period11/1/2011-10/31/2012所属领域绿色建筑研究Sector Green Buildings Research项目概述推广既有建筑绿色化改造的机制与政策研究报告Project Discription Policy Study on the Promotion of Existing Building Green Retrofit项目成员王清勤；程志军；许桃丽；叶凌；孟冲；赵力；曹博；谢尚群；陈乐端；魏景姝；王艳丽；金汐；赵乃妮Project team Qingqin Wang; Zhijun Cheng; Taoli Xu; Ling Ye; Chong Meng; Li Zhao; Bo Cao;Shangqun Xie; Leduan Chen; Jingshu Wei; Yanli Wang; Xi Jin; Naini Zhao关键词既有建筑；绿色化改造；产业链；绿色就业；投融资机制Key Words Existing Buildings; Green Retrofit; Industry Chain Green Employment; Investment and Financial Mechanism摘要近年来中国政府致力于节能减排的战略目标的实现，提出到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降4045的目标，建筑领域承担着极其重要的任务。绿色建筑是实现该目标的最主要的途径之一，相对于新建建筑，截止2012年，中国的既有建筑面积已达500多亿平方米，其中绝大部分为非绿色“存量”建筑，大多都存在资源消耗水平偏高、环境负面影响偏大等方面的不足。因此，对既有建筑实行绿色化改造是提升城市功能、节约利用城市空间总体任务的一个重要抓手。在这样的背景下，项目从中国既有建筑现状及发展趋势出发，展开发展现状、技术措施、产业形态方面的调查，着重剖析绿色就业关系以及产业链等关键问题，分析投融资机制在既有建筑绿色改造领域中的具体实施途径，并给出推进既有建筑绿色化改造的机制与政策建议。在既有建筑现状及其绿色化改造研究方面，通过开展一系列的活动，如分析中国既有建筑总体现状，能源资源消耗水平；总结中国中央层面与地方层面与既有建筑改造相关的法律、法规与政策现状，以及技术标准规范情况；分析目前中国通过既有建筑改造而获得绿色建筑评价标识的7个项目的技术应用情况，梳理适用于既有建筑绿色改造的技术实施途径和成本效益。并取得了以下成果给出了我国建筑市场发展的矛盾能源消耗及温室气体排放的增速高于建筑体量的增速，而且随着城市化进程的发展，建筑体量将继续增大；确定北方地区建成于1981～1997年的全部居住建筑，以及19982005年期间建成的不满足民用建筑节能设计标准（采暖居住建筑部分）的居住建筑、夏热冬冷地区建成于1981～2001年的不满足夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准要求的居住建筑、夏热冬暖地区建成于1981～2005年的不满足夏热冬暖地区居住建筑节能设计标准要求的居住建筑以及建成于1981～2005年的不满足公共建筑节能设计标准要求的公共建筑为绿色化改造的潜在范围，总面积约为351.5亿m2。直接范围包含北方采暖地区居住建筑4亿平方米，夏热冬冷地区居住建筑5000万平方米，公共建筑6000万平方米，共计5.1亿m2；在总结现有案例的基础上，归纳了既有建筑绿色改造适用技术类别并估算了既有建筑绿色改造的节能率介于6072之间，节水率介于2360之间，增量成本最少的仅为60元/ m2，最多的为541元/ m2，其中节能改造占增量成本的比重最多，节水改造次之，最后指出了既有建筑绿色化改造中的难点和障碍，并提出了适用于推进中国既有建筑绿色化改造的机制与政策建议。在既有建筑绿色化改造的产业链研究方面，通过开展一系列的活动，如调研国内、外绿色产业链的产生和发展并分析既有建筑绿色化改造相关产业的发展；建立既有建筑绿色化改造行业的产业链模式，分析该产业链模式在不同地区和不同建筑类型下的特征；根据以上分析，将既有建筑绿色化改造行业的产业链模式应用到实际工程案例的分析中。取得了以下成果梳理出了既有建筑绿色改造产业链由咨询设计、产品生产、施工改造、运行维护及交付使用五个环节组成。其中，每一环节还包括各自的内含链。各环节对应的主体，如设计院、建筑公司、物业公司、建材企业和房地产企业等，通过纵向一体化或契约形式构成产业链；给出了既有建筑绿色改造产业链治理模式从整体上看是综合联动型产业链，细化到产业链内各行业，又有纵向一体化和契约式产业链；得出了该产业链的地区适用性、不同建筑类别适用性的结论在严寒地区，宜形成围绕围护结构节能改造、供暖系统改造及热计量改造为核心的产业集群；在寒冷地区，宜形成以围护结构保温隔热、太阳能技术、节水技术为核心的技术密集型产业链；在夏热冬冷地区，易形成以咨询设计为主，注重技术应用的技术型产业链；在夏热冬暖地区，易形成以除湿、隔热建材为主的产品导向型产业链；在温和地区，应以形成技术密集型产业链为主。对居住建筑，宜形成以保温隔热改造、供暖系统改造、新能源利用为技术导向，咨询、施工、运营管理为主的综合型产业链；对商业建筑，宜形成以系统设计、楼宇自动控制为主的技术密集型产业链；对医院建筑，宜形成以节电、节水技术为核心的需求导向型产业链；对学校建筑，宜围绕保温隔热技术、材料等形成产业集群；对工业厂房，宜形成以建材产业为主的生产导向型产业链；对既有建筑绿色化改造产业链模式做了定性分析和提出了定量分析方法通过剩余利润SL Li，判断企业是否应加盟产业链，之后分别计算产业链形成前后所需的改造费用，产业链形成前改造总费用（咨询费建材费改造费管理费）改造面积；产业链形成后改造总费用[咨询费（1-G1）建材费1-G2改造费（1-G3）管理费（1-G4）]改造面积。G为产业链运行过程中的增加值或节约率。最后计算产业链的剩余成本SCC0-C，得出产业链的经济效益。并将理论方法应用于实际工程案例，结果表明，形成产业链后，改造总费用相比于未形成产业链时节省了73.8万元，费用节约率达到16.4％，该分析证明该模式具有可观的经济、环境和社会效益。最后，给出了促进既有建筑绿色化改造行业的产业链模式应用和推行的政策建议。在既有建筑绿色化改造与绿色就业的关系研究方面，通过调研总结绿色就业产生的背景、特征、绿色就业对社会发展的拉动效应，正、负效应的研究方法及绿色就业的岗位测算理论方法，给出了既有建筑绿色化改造对绿色就业的影响分析；为绿色就业提供的就业来源、就业类型以及相关度的分析；结合既有建筑绿色化改造的就业拉动效应的实证研究，应用工时推算法测算出截止2020年绿色化改造本身可以创造的直接就业岗位有194754797个，接续管理所带来的间接就业岗位有5258390；应用投入产出法测算出截止2020年绿色化改造本身可以创造的间接就业岗位有215788315个，接续管理所带来的间接就业岗位有1156843个。最后，给出了促进既有建筑绿色化改造绿色就业的政策建议。在既有建筑绿色化改造的投融资机制研究方面，给出了既有建筑绿色化改造的规模和资金需求量。远期规模需要进行绿色化改造的既有建筑总面积有351.5亿m2，需求资金62万亿元人民币；近期规模需要进行绿色化改造的既有建筑总面积有5.1亿m2，需求资金5250亿元人民币。通过调研既有建筑绿色化改造的投融资机制研究背景、概念体系及外部性因素，分析国内、外既有建筑绿色化改造投融资模式的研究现状，调查既有建筑绿色化改造投融资体质存在的问题。并结合中国国情，设计了适用于既有建筑绿色化改造的融资模式。在既有建筑绿色化改造初期阶段宜采用“改造资金政府补贴产权单位投资”的模式；发展阶段宜采用“改造资金政府补贴产权单位投资各私营企业业主投资”的模式；成熟阶段宜采用“改造资金政府支持产权单位投资各私营企业业主投资”模式。最后，给出了既有建筑绿色化改造行业创新模式的投融资机制探讨及政策建议。基于上述研究，根据项目开展以来组织的活动及取得的相关结论，本项目撰写了研究报告，包括以下四份子报告既有建筑现状分析及其绿色化改造政策研究报告、既有建筑绿色化改造的产业链研究报告、既有建筑绿色化改造与绿色就业关系研究报告和既有建筑绿色化改造的投融资机制研究报告。SummaryChina government pays more and more attention on the implementation of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in recent years. The target is to decrease 4045of the totalcarbon dioxide emissions by the year 2020compared tothe year 2005. Green building development is the most important way to accomplish the target. By 2012, the existing building area has been increased to 50 billion m2. Most of these buildings are necessary to be carried out green building retrofit due to their high energy consumption, water waster, material waste, and environmentalburdens. Therefore, the existing building market has large potential on the promotion of sustainable building technologies. So it is necessary to study the policies on the promotion of green building retrofit to improve the relevant work implementation. Based on the background, this project is to study China current building market status and promote a series of policies to enhance existing building green retrofit. From the point of view of current situation and development of existing buildings in China, the project will carry out research on development, technical measures and industry , analyze the relationship of existing building retrofit and green employment along with the key issues of industry chain, make analysis of specific implementation of investment and financing mechanism in the existing building green retrofit field and put forward mechanism and suggestion to promote existing building green retrofit.In the aspect of study on the current status of existing building and green retrofit policies, through a series of activities, for example, analyzed the general current situation of existing building, energy resource consumption level;summarize the current situation of laws, regulations and policy on the central level and local level as well as technical standards , which are related to the existing building retrofit; analyzed the technical application situation of seven projects ,which acquired the green building assessment identification by means of existing building retrofit. Sort out technical implementation ways and cost benefits applied to existing building retrofit. Results are as follows put forward the contradiction of construction market development the growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is higher than the growth of building volume; with the development of urbanization process, the building volume will increase; confirm the potential scope of green building retrofit all residential buildings built during 19811997 in northern region, the residential buildings which was built during 19982005 and not meet civil building energy saving design standard heating residential building part, the residential buildings which was built during 19812001 in the hot summer and cold winter region and not meet civil building energy saving design standard in hot summer and cold winter region, the residential buildings which was built during 1981-2005 and not meet civil building energy saving design standard in hot summer and warm winter region, as well as the public buildings which was built during 19812005 and not meet the public building energy efficiency design standard, the gross area are 35.15 billions m2. The direct scope consists of 400 million m2residential buildings in northern heating region, 50 million m2residential buildings in the hot summer and cold winter region and 60 million m2public buildings, totally 510 million m2; Based on the summary of existing cases, come up with the technology category applied to existing building green retrofit and estimate the energy saving rate of existing building green retrofit is between 60-72, water saving rate is between 2360, the least incremental cost is only 60 yuan/ m2and the most incremental cost is 541yuan/ m2. The energy saving retrofit accounts for the most proportion of th incremental cost, Water-saving transation followed. Finally based on the difficulties or competitions faced in existing building green retrofit, Provided the mechanism and policy suggestions applied on the promotion of existing buildings green retrofit.In the aspect of Study on the industry chain of existing building green retrofit, through a series of activities, for example, investigated and summarized the produce and development of green industry chain at home and abroad and the development of industries related to existing buildingsgreen retrofit; established the industries chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofit and summarized the classifications and features of industries chain and established the industries chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofit.Based on the analysis, applied the industrial chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofiton an actual project analysis. Results are as follows sort out the produce and composition of green retrofit in existing buildings the industry chain of green retrofit in existing buildings consists of five parts consult and design, production, construction and transation, operation and maintenance and put into service.Among them, every link has its own inclusion chain.The main body corresponds to its link, such as design institute ,construction company, building materials enterprise and real estate enterprise .They constitute industrial chain through vertical intergration or contract. Put forward industrial chain governance model of green retrofit in existing buildings on the whole, industry chain of green transation in existing buildings is comprehensive linkage type ,refined to various sectors within the industry chain, it has vertical integration chain and contract chain.Put forward the regional applicability and different construction category applicability of industry chain of existing buildingsgreen retrofitin extremely cold region,it is suitable to industry cluster, regarding enclosure structrue energy saving recnstruction, heating system re and Thermal measurement transation as the core; in the cold region, ,it is suitable to skill-intensive industrial chain,regarding enclosure structure energy reconstruction ,sloar energy tchnology and water saving technolgy as the core;in the hot summer and cold winter region, it is suitable to technolgy industrial chain,which takes priority of consult and design and pays attention to technology application; in the hot summer and warm winter region, it is suitable to product-oriented industrial chain,which mainly consists of dehumidificatin and thermal insulation building material; in mild region, it is suitable to skill-intensive industrial chain.for residential building, it is suitable to integrated industrial chain ,which takes priority of consult, construction and peratin management, combined with thermal insulation transfrmation, heating system transfrmation and new energy utilization for the technical guide.For the commercial building, it is suitable to skill-intensive industrial chain, which takes priority of system design and building automatic control. For hospital building, it is suitable to demand generated industrial chain with power saving,water saving technology as the core.For the school building, it is suitable to industry cluster, centred on thermal insulation technology and material.For industrial workshop, it is suitable to production generated industrial chain, centred on building material industry. Come up with qualitative and quantitative analysis of industrial chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofit according to the fomula as below SL LiBy this way to judge if the enterprise should join in the industrial chain, then count the transfrmation cost before and after the retrofit, transfrmation cost before retrofitconsult fee building material fee retrofit fee management feeretrofit area; transfrmation cost after retrofit [consult fee（1-G1） building material fee 1-G2 retrofit fee（1-G3） management fee（1-G4）]retrofit area。G is added value or saving rate of the operation process of the chain. Finally, count the residual cost of the industry chain SCC0-C to obtain the economic benefit of the industry chain. Applied the industrial chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofiton on an actual project case. It turned out that the transation cost could save 738000 yuan after the industrial chain was ed and the cost saving rate achieved 16.4％.It is proved that the model has considerable Economic, environmental and social benefits. Finally put forward Industrial chain model of existing buildingsgreen retrofit and suggestions to promote it.In the aspect of Study on the relationship between existing building green retrofit and green employment, through a series of activities, for example Investigated and summarized the background and features of green employment and the positive effect of green employment on social development; survey the study of positive and negative effect of green employment on social development and positions estimating theory and . Results are as follows put forward the influence analysis of green transation in existing buildings on green employment;the analysis of the degree of correlation between green transation in existing buildings and green employment as well as employment source and employment type which green transation in existing buildings provides green employment with;combined with the empirical research of pull effect of green transation in existing buildings on green employment,reach the conclusion that green retrofit itself can create 194754797 direct jobs by the year 2020 and indirect jobs brought by connection management reach 5258390 by means of working hours prediction . Green retrofit itself can create 215788315 indirect jobs by the year 2020 and indirect jobs brought by connection management reach 1156843 by means of -output .In the aspect of Study on the investment and financial mechanism in the existing building green retrofit field, obtain the scale and funds requirement of existing buildingsgreen retrofit. For long term, there has been 35.15 billion m2of existing building total area need to be green retrofit and the fund reaches 62 trillion. For recent scale,there has been 510 million m2of existing building total area need to be green retrofit and the fund reaches 525 billion. Investigated the the investment and financing mechanism research background of existing buildingsgreen retrofit, the the concept system as well as external factors; analyze research situation of investment and financing mode of existing buildingsgreen retrofit at home and abroad and made a survey on the problems existed in Investment and financing constitution of existing buildingsgreen retrofit. Combined with the actual conditions in China,design the financing model applied to existing building green retrofit.At the initial stage of the existing building green retrofit ,it is suitable to adopt the model of ‘retrofit fund government subsidy property right unit investment ’. At the development stage ,it is suitable to adopt the model of ‘‘retrofit fund government subsidy property r