Research on Comparison between Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Fuel Cell Vehicles November 23, 2000 Northern Jiaotong University2Research on Comparison between Hybrid Energy Vehicles and Fuel Cell Vehicles 1. Survey of HEVS and FCVS 1.1 Potential Environmental Efficiency 1.2 Present Situation of the Development of HEVS and FCVS 1.3 Issues to be Solved 1.4 Improvement of the Economy of Fuel 2. Technical s for the Development of HEVS and FCVS and Comparison of Them 2.1 Technical Difficulties of HEVS and FCVS 2.2 Feasible Plans on and Ways to the Development of HEVS and FCVS in the Future 2.3 Recently Expected Development Progress and Possible Perance 2.4 Recent and Long-term Development Perspectives of HEVS and FCVS 2.5 Qualitative Analysis and uation Comparison of HEVS and FCVS 3. Infrastructure Required for Operation of HEVS and FCVS 4. Appraisal on Expense Required for Operation of HEVS and FCVS 4.1 Research and Development 4.2 Industrialized Investment 4.3 Infrastructure Investment 4.4 Economic Influence 5. Prediction on the Development Cycles of HEVS and FCVS 5.1 R 2 Flexibility of fuel oil utilizing the function of diversified energy in adjustment of energy composition and full use of various energy; 3 High efficiency and high perance energy consumption may be reduced by great extent and the perance of vehicle may be improved. Table 4 shows the economy and emission levels of fuel from HEVS and FCVS during the full life cycle of vehicle. Table 4. The Economy and Emission Levels of Fuel for HEVS and FCVS current Effective s Fuel economy Emission level 6CO CO2 HC NOX Base line（ based on diesel engine） 100 （ combustion efficiency of 15） 100 100 100 100 FCVSfuel cell vehicle 200～ 300 0 0 0 0 HEVShybrid energy vehicle 200 10 50 10 10 GDIdiesel engine injection 150～ 200 60 The American Fortune magazine comments fuel cells will get rid of the noisy piston engines with environmental pollution that drive cars, trucks and buses in the world, just like getting rid of the steam engines. Though time is needed for realizing this objective, the potential environmental efficiency brought forth by HEVS and FCVS is obvious. The promising perspectives arising from the development of HEVS and FCVS have roused fierce competition among major international auto manufacturers and various companies that hope to enter auto industry with some market shares by adopting new technology. In recent years, the rapid development and commercialization steps of hybrid energy vehicle and fuel cell vehicle are striking throughout the world. With the active participation, rapid increase of and technological advances of major international auto manufacturers and oil giants, the development of HEVS and FCVS has gone out of laboratories, begun to come to the commercial process, and entered a new development stage with challenges and opportunities. The president of Benz-Chrysler Corporation has the opinion that “fuel cells are the future of auto industry”, the auto market shares of the world will be redistributed within ten years; new companies with “fuel cell technology” will enter and some old companies will be withdraw. Nearly all Japanese auto companies have launched their own hybrid energy vehicles. It is represented that Prius vehicle produced by Honda Company are warmly welcome by the market, with an emission level reaching the current strictest emission standards in California and a perance/price ratio having certain market competitiveness. Table 5 shows a comparison of various perances between HEVS and FCVS as environmental protection autos. Table 5 Comparison of Various Perances of Environmental Protection Autos Types of Environmental Protection Autos Power sources Utilization perance Economy Environmental impacts Energy availability Alternative fuel vehicle Engine The storage and safety of compressed gas and liquefied oil with some hidden dangers, fuel filling station construction Traditional engine influenced and restricted by Carnot cycle and auto work conditions, with low combustion efficiency generally no more than 20 Great reduction of pollutant emission Use of methanol, ethanol, compressed gas and liquefied petro-gas, unable to get rid of un-renewable petro-chemical energy exclusive ethanol Accumulator vehicle Electric motor Low specific energy ratio, long power charging time and Higher combustion efficiency than No pollution adopting recycling Adopting renewable energy, big use of water power resources 7charging time and short continuous distance; large required on infrastructure efficiency than traditional vehicle, which is far lower than FCVS and HEVS recycling energy as power, accumulator of secondary pollution, highest emission of non green house and green house air during the full life cycle power resources Hybrid energy vehicle Engine and motor Overcoming the shortcomings of accumulator vehicle in short distance per charge of power, complex technology and heavy weight Requirements for accumulators reduced, high cost of vehicle and higher combustion efficiency Big reduction of pollution emission, still with some pollution Use of gasoline and other alternative fuel Fuel cell vehicle Motor Problems of hydrogen making, storage and adding to be solved; long continuous distance Higher cost, extreme high combustion efficiency 80 possible No emission pollution Maximum use of renewable energy, and high flexibility in use of fuel Therefore, super low emission and zero emission of HEVS and FCVS provide a new and effective way to eliminate the pollution of motor vehicle, and their development and promotion of use must bring forth gigantic potential environmental efficiency. 2 Improving the utilization structure of energy in our country and bringing forth potential environmental efficiency Based on analysis of the current energy structure of our country, the storage structure of energy is extremely unbalanced, with pretty low utilization rate and use efficiency of energy, therefore, the use of new technology is very promising. Consumption of coal exceeds 60 of total energy consumption and oil equals to 69 of energy consumption in transportation industry. Energy consumption is mainly focused on coal in our country. Whether or not coals may be changed into energy for use in transportation industry, that is, coals to be changed into energy available for use by HEVS and FCVS, it is an important issue to be considered in investigating the environmental efficiency of HEVS and FCVS. Tables 6-9 show the energy structure and energy production in our country. Table 6 2000 Prediction on Energy Consumption Composition of Our Country Energy composition Electric power Coal Oil and natural gas Percentage（ ） 27 60 13 Table 7 Energy Consumption Composition of Transportation Industry Energy composition Electric power Coal Oil Percentage） 25 6 69 8Table 8 2000 Demand of Primary Energy of Our Country 2000 Energy categories Standard coal（ 100 million tons） Energy composition（ ） Oil 2.17～ 2.23 15.5～ 15.9 Natural gas 0.32～ 0.40 2.3～ 2.9 Coal 10.21～ 10.07 72.9～ 71.9 Others 1.3 9.3 Total 14 100 Table 9 1991～ 1996 Energy Production Composition of Our Country Percentage among total energy production（ ） Year Coal Raw oil Natural gas Water power 1991 74.1 19.2 2.0 4.7 1992 74.3 18.9 2.0 4.8 1993 74 18.7 2.0 5.3 1994 74.6 17.6 2.0 5.8 1995 75.5 16.7 1.8 6.0 1996 75.3 17.3 1.8 5.6 The economic growth of China in the recent ten years has reached 9, and its annual energy consumption has increased by an average of 4.9 in the recent twenty years. At this speed, the raw oil gap of China will reach about 100 million tons by the year 2010, the relative shortage or large import of oil energy will bring forth serious constraints and influences on he sustainable development of national economy of our country. Since 1994, our country has become a net oil importer. With rapid economic development, annual oil demand is increasing by great extent, and oil production can not meet the demands for economic growth, with annual import of raw oil spending large amount of foreign exchanges. In this circumstance, one of the effective ways to preventing large increase of raw oil import and enhancing potential environmental efficiency is the promotion of the practical progress of HEVS and FCVS. The existing technological advance has proven the feasibility for changing coal energy into energy available for use by HEVS and FCVS, which, if developed by scale, will play an active role in improving the utilization structure of energy in our country. Table 10 shows 1996-1998 raw oil production of our country. Table 10 1996～ 1998 Raw Oil Production of Our Country 10 thousand tons Year 1996 1997 1998 Production 14141 14322 16020 3 Through the enhancement of combustion efficiency and the reduction of oil consumption, HEVS and FCVS may bring forth the potential of environmental efficiency. According to prediction on oil use from 2000 to 2010 of our country, oil gap of our country will reach about 100 million tons by the year 2010, for details of which, please refer to 9Table 11. Table 11 Prediction on Demands of Major Oil Products in 2000 and 2010 of Our Country 1995（ ten thousand tons） 2000 demand prediction 2010 demand prediction Categories of oil products Production Consumption GDP growth of 8 GDP growth of 7 Gasoline 2840.8 2905 3800～ 4000 5900～ 6200 Diesel 3684.3 4332 5700～ 6000 8800～ 9000 Aviation oil 359.9 422 690 1400 Kerosene 68.9 85 100 110 Lubricants 266.7 256 322 408 Commercial heavy oil 2002.5 2634 3000 3300 Total 9223.1 10634 13612～ 14112 19918～ 20418 Difference（ based on 1995） 1410.9 4389～ 4989 10695～ 11195 Table 11 shows that, by the year 2005, total import of the above-mentioned oil products will be about 43.89～ 49.89 million tons, and by the year 2010, about 106.95～ 111.95 million tons; Statistics of 1996 shows that raw oil consumption is 173.00 million tons, while production is only 156.00 million tons with a gap of more than 10.00 million tons. Raw oil consumption of our country will be rapidly increased with the economic development, and according to conservative estimation of experts, by the year 2010, the gap of raw oil demands will reach about 100 million tons. By the year 2010, if reduction of raw oil consumption by vehicle through adoption of new technology enables import of raw oil maintain at 20～ 30 million tons, thus reducing import of oil by 70～ 80 million tons, great comprehensive efficiency will be achieved. 4 Promoting substitution of oil by coal in our country is another effective way to bring forth potential environmental efficiency China is a country with large coals, and its energy consumption is hard to avoid the track based on coals. In recent years, our country has started to reduce the proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption, since coal consumption is in accompany with high pollution and low efficiency. However, if FCVS and HEVS are adopted for use of coal fuel, the contradiction of pollution and utilization may be alleviated. In case certain part of raw oil consumption in transportation industry by 2010 is replaced by coal fuel, it will be conducive to alleviation of the over -dependence of economic development on oil resources in our country. The substitution of coal for oil will bring forth gigantic potential environmental efficiency. Tables 12-13 show the coal consumption and the pollution thereof in our country. Table 12 Percentage of Coal in Energy Consumption and Prediction in Our Country 1995 2000 2010 Coal demands 100 million tons） 11 14 18 Percentage in primary energy（ ） 85 69 60 10Table 13 CO2、 SO2、 NOX and Particulate Dust Emission Produced by Coal Combustion of Our Country（ 1995） Name of pollutant CO2 SO2 NOX Particulate dust Pollutant emission（ ten thousand tons） 3007 2370 800 Percentage in total emission -77 Annual emission of CO2 in our country reaches more than 30.07 million tons, 13.6 among total emission around the world, second only to the US. Similarly due to the factors of coal combustion, SO2 content in Beijing City is five times the warning value stipulated by the World Health Organization. Experts have predicted that, 2000～ 2010 energy demands of various industries around the world are mainly as the following 1 Energy demands in industry and agriculture is on the decrease coal resource consumption in this aspect in our country shall also be reduced gradually; 2 Energy demands in construction industry will be of no big change; 3 Energy demands in traffic and transportation industry and tertiary industry will be increased by great extent, and especially, the rapid development of auto industry after 2000 will bring forth increased demands on quality energy resources; 4 Energy demands of living will be of little change, while use of natural gas will be on great increase. Therefore, we shall research on how to enhance the combustion efficiency of the energy consumption increased by great traffic and transportation industry and tertiary industry and reduce the emission levels of increased energy consumption, which is also our objective in the future. Experts predict that, enhancement of energy efficiency by every 1 in our country will bring forth intangible efficiency of about RMB 13 billion. By the year, if we can reach the objective value targeted for the 1st phase of the US PNGV Plan（ 80MPG） , annual raw oil consumption may be maintained at the level of the year 1996 based on calculation as per the car stock of the current year, which will bring forth good economic and environmental efficiency for our country. Even based on the currently achieved technological breakthrough relating to HEVS and FCVS, the development of HEVS and FCVS is of special significance for China with high enhancement on the flexibility of energy demands and fuel economy, since China is a country of large coal production and consumption and with serious pollution caused by motor vehicle. According to analysis, adoption of HEVS and FCVS may reduce the percentage of pollutants, please refer to Table 14. 11Table 14 Air Pollution by Use of HEVS and FCVS Name of pollutant TSP CO NOX SO2 Daily average value in 1999（g/cubic meter） 364 29 140 80 Predicted falling percentage of FCVS 100 Predicted falling percentage of HEVS 50 90 90 50 In case Beijing changes all its stock of more than 6000 buses and more than 4000 medium buses into FCVS, annual reduction of emission will be what listed in Table 15. Table 15 Reduction of emissions Emissions Carbon greenhouse gas NOX CO RTHC Reduction of emission in ton 110,000 tons 800 tons 75 tons 620 tons In conclusion, whether in urgent need for improving the air environment of cities, or in practical demands for adjustment of energy utilization and enhancement of the utilization of energy, or as an important way to safeguard the energy saf