INNOVATION OUTLOOK SMART CHARGING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INNOVATION OUTLOOK SMART CHARGING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES www.irena.org Copyright IRENA 2019 Supported by based on a decision of the German Bundestag Supported by based on a decision of the German BundestagCopyright IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-124-9Citation IRENA 2019, Innovation outlook Smart charging for electric vehicles, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and fi nancial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report benefited greatly from the and review of experts Peter Bach Andersen Technical University of Denmark, Petar Georgiev Eurelectric, Gregory Poilasne Nuvve, Johannes Henkel 50Hertz, Matteo Muratori NREL, Christelle Verstraaten and David Colt ChargePoint, Naotaka Shibata TEPCO, Yasuo Matsunaga Nissan, Tomoko Blech CHAdeMO Association, Carlo Mol VITO, Paolo Santi MIT, Lysander Weiss Venture Idea GmbH, Nikola Medimorec SLoCaT, Alberto Piglia and Chiara dalla Chiesa Enel, Hugo Pereira EV Box, Patrick Wittenberg Innogy, Lisa Wolf er Eurelectric, Yue Xiang Sichuan University, China, Xuewen Geng State Grid EV Service Company, Mathias Wiecher E.ON, Bastian Pfarrherr Stromnetz Hamburg, Severine Allano and Francois Grossmann Tractebel, Tomas Jil er IRENA, Dolf Gielen, Alessandra Salgado, Bowen Hong, Emanuele Taibi, Carlos Fernndez, Nicholas Wagner, Laura Gutierrez and Paul Komor IRENA. Report contributors Arina Anisie and Francisco Boshell IRENA with Pavla Mandatova, Mireia Martinez, Vincenzo Giordano and Peter Verwee Tractebel. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU, through the International Climate Initiative IKI, generously supported the preparation of this report. More ination about IKI can be found on the website www.international-climate- . For further ination or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at publicationsirena.org This report is available for download from www.irena.org/Publications Disclaimer The views expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Photographs are from Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated.Just as future transport must be increasingly electrified, future power systems must make maximum use of variable renewable energy sources. Smart charging minimises the load impact from electric vehicles and unlocks the flexibility to use more solar and wind power. Copyright IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-124-9Citation IRENA 2019, Innovation outlook Smart charging for electric vehicles, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and fi nancial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report benefited greatly from the and review of experts Peter Bach Andersen Technical University of Denmark, Petar Georgiev Eurelectric, Gregory Poilasne Nuvve, Johannes Henkel 50Hertz, Matteo Muratori NREL, Christelle Verstraaten and David Colt ChargePoint, Naotaka Shibata TEPCO, Yasuo Matsunaga Nissan, Tomoko Blech CHAdeMO Association, Carlo Mol VITO, Paolo Santi MIT, Lysander Weiss Venture Idea GmbH, Nikola Medimorec SLoCaT, Alberto Piglia and Chiara dalla Chiesa Enel, Hugo Pereira EV Box, Patrick Wittenberg Innogy, Lisa Wolf er Eurelectric, Yue Xiang Sichuan University, China, Xuewen Geng State Grid EV Service Company, Mathias Wiecher E.ON, Bastian Pfarrherr Stromnetz Hamburg, Severine Allano and Francois Grossmann Tractebel, Tomas Jil er IRENA, Dolf Gielen, Alessandra Salgado, Bowen Hong, Emanuele Taibi, Carlos Fernndez, Nicholas Wagner, Laura Gutierrez and Paul Komor IRENA. Report contributors Arina Anisie and Francisco Boshell IRENA with Pavla Mandatova, Mireia Martinez, Vincenzo Giordano and Peter Verwee Tractebel. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU, through the International Climate Initiative IKI, generously supported the preparation of this report. More ination about IKI can be found on the website www.international-climate- . For further ination or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at publicationsirena.org This report is available for download from www.irena.org/Publications Disclaimer The views expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Photographs are from Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated.INNOVATION OUTLOOK ii FIGURES iii TABLES .v BOXES vi ABBREVIATIONS vii SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS .1 1 INTRODUCTION .14 2 STATE OF PLAY 15 2.1 EV market evolution 15 2.2 Policy incentives for EVs and charging infrastructure support .18 2.3 Renewable energy share in the power mix in e-mobility markets . 21 2.4 EV flexibility potential 26 EVs providing power system flexibility today .26 EVs providing power system flexibility by 2030 28 EVs providing power system flexibility by 2050 28 3 SMART CHARGING OUTLOOK 32 3.1 Impact of charging EVs 32 Impact on electricity capacity and demand 32 Impact on grid infrastructure . 32 3.2 Smart charging . 35 Role of smart charging 35 Types of smart charging and their implementation 38 Current smart charging projects 40 3.3 Charging infrastructure. 47 Current charging infrastructure. 47 Smart charging infrastructure outlook . 47 Charging infrastructure outlook Towards higher charging power .48 Alternatives to cable charging . 53 3.4 Smart charging enablers 57 Consumer behaviour . 57 Big data and artificial intelligence 58 Blockchain technology 59 CONTENTSSMART CHARGING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES iii 4 BUSINESS MODELS AND REGULATORY OUTLOOK 61 4.1 E-mobility market actors .61 4.2 EV-grid nexus business models 63 Smart energy services provider and aggregator .63 Second-life storage applications 65 4.3 Regulation for vehicle-grid integration Electricity markets 67 Market design and regulation for vehicle-grid integration .67 Dynamic pricing plans that incentivise smart charging and synergies with VRE .68 S ta n da r d i s a t i o n 69 5 E-MOBILITY OUTLOOK 72 5.1 Cost and competitiveness of EVs . 72 Total cost of ownership comparison . 72 Evolution of vehicle-related policies 73 5.2 Outlook for batteries 74 5.3 Shared e-mobility Mobility-as-a-service . 75 5.4 Autonomous EVs . 77 Evolution of vehicle DNA Towards autonomous vehicles 77 Addressing regulatory challenges and concerns of fully autonomous driving 79 6 SMART CHARGING IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM 81 6.1 System-wide impact 82 Short-term impact on system operation .83 Long-term impact on system expansion .85 Results from other similar studies . 90 6.2 Local distribution grid impact . 90 Short-term impact on operation of local distribution grid 90 Long-term impact on distribution grid expansion 93 7 CONCLUSIONS – POLICY CHECKLIST .95 REFERENCES 100 ANNEX 1 INCENTIVES TO DEPLOY EVs AND CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE .108 ANNEX 2 STATUS OF EV BATTERY AND CHARGING STATION TECHNOLOGIES 110 ANNEX 3 BUSINESS MODELS FOR EV CHARGING SERVICE PROVIDERS 114 ANNEX 4 EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY 115 ANNEX 5 MODELLING OLOGY .119INNOVATION OUTLOOK iv Figures Figure S1 Growth in EV deployment between 2010 and 2050 in a Paris Agreement-aligned scenario 2 Figure S2 Advanced s of smart charging 3 Figure S3 Smart charging enables EVs to provide flexibility .3 Figure S4 Potential range of flexibility services by EVs 4 Figure S5 Short-term impact of EV charging 6 Figure S6 Long-term impact of EV charging .7 Figure S7 Impact of EV smart charging on the electricity grid 8 Figure S8 Evolution of EV flexibility and renewable energy integration by 2030 and 2050 .10 Figure S9 Policy checklist . 13 Figure 1 Evolution of EV sales in the light-duty vehicle category in selected countries, 2012 to 2017. 15 Figure 2 Evolution of the penetration of EV in light-duty vehicle sales 16 Figure 3 Carbon dioxide emissions of EVs 22 Figure 4 Electricity demand, renewable electricity production and EV power demand in selected countries in 2016 . 23 Figure 5 Indicators of clean electric mobility penetration in selected countries in 2016 23 Figure 6 EV penetration in light-duty vehicle fleet compared to share of wind and solar in electricity generation in selected countries in 2016 24 Figure 7 EV penetration in light-duty vehicle fleet compared to share of wind in electricity generation in selected countries in 2016 25 Figure 8 EV penetration in light-duty vehicle fleet compared to share of solar in electricity generation in selected countries in 2016 25 Figure 9 Factors determining the amount of available flexibility from a single EV 26 Figure 10 Evolution of EV flexibility for renewable energy integration by 2030 and 2050 29 Figure 11 Illustrative outlook of available flexibility from a single electric light-duty vehicle in urban context .30 Figure 12 Potential range of flexibility services by EVs 35 Figure 13 s of smart charging 38 Figure 14 Example of unidirectional V1G versus bidirectional V2X grid services provision .39 Figure 15 Example of time-of-use charging .42 Figure 16 Effect of EV battery used as a back-up for the grid 44SMART CHARGING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES v Figure 17 Effect of peak shaving .44 Figure 18 Examples of city types . 51 Figure 19 Inductive charging . 55 Figure 20 Functioning of SMATCH 59 Figure 21 Overview of strategic actors positioning in the e-mobility value chain 62 Figure 22 BMW and PGE project Vehicle perance from target 100 kW 66 Figure 23 Possible EV revenue streams that can be stacked .67 Figure 24 Overview of main international norms related to electric mobility .69 Figure 25 Overview of communication protocols in electric mobility 70 Figure 26 Illustrative total cost of ownership TCO outlook for electricity and diesel-powered cars until 2050 73 Figure 27 Outlook for battery technologies compared to their maturity today 75 Figure 28 Simplified mobility-as-a-service value chain 76 Figure 29 Expected launch times of autonomous vehicles 78 Figure 30 Angles of the analysis .81 Figure 31 Short-term impact of EV charging on the selected key perance indicators 84 Figure 32 EV charging profiles matched with solar and wind availability 86 Figure 33 Regional wind production profiles in a country with high wind potential 87