Summary for Policymakers Climate Change and Land An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems WG I WG II WG IIIIPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems Summary for Policymakers Approved Draft Subject to copy edit and layout Date of draft 07 August 2019 Drafting Authors Almut Arneth Germany, Humberto Barbosa Brazil, Tim Benton United Kingdom, Katherine Calvin The United States of America, Eduardo Calvo Peru, Sarah Connors United Kingdom, Annette Cowie Australia, Edouard Davin France/Switzerland, Fatima Denton The Gambia, Rene van Diemen The Netherlands/United Kingdom, Fatima Driouech Morocco, Aziz Elbehri Morocco, Jason Evans Australia, Marion Ferrat France, Jordan Harold United Kingdom, Eamon Haughey Ireland, Mario Herrero Australia/Costa Rica, Joanna House United Kingdom, Mark Howden Australia, Margot Hurlbert Canada, Gensuo Jia China, Tom Gabriel Johansen Norway, Jagdish Krishnaswamy India, Werner Kurz Canada, Christopher Lennard South Africa, Soojeong Myeong Republic of Korea; Nagmeldin Mahmoud Sudan, Valrie Masson- Delmotte France, Cheikh Mbow Senegal, Pamela McElwee The United States of America, Alisher Mirzabaev Germany/Uzbekistan, Angela Morelli Norway/Italy, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia France, Dalila Nedjraoui Algeria, Suvadip Neogi India, Johnson Nkem Cameroon, Nathalie De Noblet-Ducoudr France, Lennart Olsson Sweden, Minal Pathak India, Jan Petzold Germany, Ramn Pichs-Madruga Cuba, Elvira Poloczanska United Kingdom/Australia, Alexander Popp Germany, Hans-Otto Prtner Germany, Joana Portugal Pereira United Kingdom, Prajal Pradhan Nepal/Germany, Andy Reisinger New Zealand, Debra C. Roberts South Africa, Cynthia Rosenzweig The United States of America, Mark Rounsevell United Kingdom/Germany, Elena Shevliakova The United States of America, Priyadarshi Shukla India, Jim Skea United Kingdom, Raphael Slade United Kingdom, Pete Smith United Kingdom, Youba Sokona Mali, Denis Jean Sonwa Cameroon, Jean-Francois Soussana France, Francesco Tubiello The United States of America/Italy, Louis Verchot The United States of America/Colombia, Koko Warner The United States of America/Germany, Nora Weyer Germany, Jianguo Wu China, Noureddine Yassaa Algeria, Panmao Zhai China, Zinta Zommers Latvia. SPM approved draft IPCC SRCCL Page | 1 Subject to copy edit and layout Introduction This Special Report on Climate Change and Land 1responds to the Panel decision in 2016 to prepare three Special Reports 2during the Sixth Assessment cycle, taking account of proposals from governments and observer organizations 3 . This report addresses greenhouse gas GHG fluxes in land-based ecosystems , land use and sustainable land management 4 in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation, desertification 5 , land degradation 6and food security 7 . This report follows the publication of other recent reports, including the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C SR15, the thematic assessment of the Intergovernmental Science Policy Plat on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services IPBES on Land Degradation and Restoration, the IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, and the Global Land Outlook of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification UNCCD. This report provides an updated assessment of the current state of knowledge 8 while striving forcoherence and complementarity with other recent reports. This Summary for Policymakers SPM is structured in four parts A People, land and climate in a warming world; B Adaptation and mitigation response options; C Enabling response options; and D Action in the near-term. Confidence in key findings is indicated using the IPCC calibrated language 9 ; the underlying scientific basis of each key finding is indicated by references to the main report. 1The terrestrial portion of the biosphere that comprises the natural resources soil, near-surface air, vegetation and other biota, and water, the ecological processes, topography, and human settlements and infrastructure that operate within that system. 2The three Special reports are “Global Warming of 1.5C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.”; “Climate Change and Land an IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems”; “The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” 3related proposals were climate change and desertification; desertification with regional aspects; land degradation – an assessment of the interlinkages and integrated strategies for mitigation and adaptation; agriculture, foresty and other landuse; food and agriculture; and food security and climate change. 4Sustainable Land Management is defined in this report as “the stewardship and use of land resources, including soils, water, animals and plants, to meet changing human needs, while simultaneously ensuring the long-term productive potential of these resources and the maintenance of their environmental functions”. 5Desertification is defined in this report as ‘land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from many factors, including climatic variations and human activities’. 6Land degradation is defined in this report as ‘a negative trend in land condition, caused by direct or indirect human induced processes, including anthropogenic climate change, expressed as long-term reduction and as loss of at least one of the following biological productivity, ecological integrity, or value to humans’. 7Food security is defined in this report as ‘a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. 8The assessment covers literature accepted for publication by 7th April 2019. 9Each finding is grounded in an uation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, for example, medium SPM approved draft IPCC SRCCL Page | 2 Subject to copy edit and layout A. People, land and climate in a warming world A 1. Land provides the principal basis for human livelihoods and well-being including the supply of food, freshwater and multiple other ecosystem services, as well as biodiversity. Human use directly affects more than 70 likely 69-76 of the global, ice- free land surface high confidence. Land also plays an important role in the climate system. {1.1, 1.2, 2.3, 2.4, Figure SPM.1} A1.1. People currently use one quarter to one third of land’s potential net primary production 10for food, feed, fibre, timber and energy. Land provides the basis for many other ecosystem functions and services 11 , including cultural and regulating services, that are essential for humanity high confidence. In one economic approach, the worlds terrestrial ecosystem services have been valued on an annual basis to be approximately equivalent to the annual global Gross Domestic Product 12medium confidence. {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1} A1.2. Land is both a source and a sink of greenhouse gases GHGs and plays a key role in the exchange of energy, water and aerosols between the land surface and atmosphere. Land ecosystems and biodiversity are vulnerable to ongoing climate change and weather and climate extremes, to different extents. Sustainable land management can contribute to reducing the negative impacts of multiple stressors, including climate change, on ecosystems and societies high confidence. {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1} A1.3. Data available since 1961 13show that global population growth and changes in per capita consumption of food, feed, fibre, timber and energy have caused unprecedented rates of land and freshwater use very high confidence with agriculture currently accounting for ca. 70 of global fresh-water use medium confidence. Expansion of areas under agriculture and forestry, including commercial production, and enhanced agriculture and forestry productivity have supported consumption and food availability for a growing population high confidence. With confidence. The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result virtually certain 99–100 probability, very likely 90–100, likely 66–100, about as likely as not 33–66, unlikely 0–33, very unlikely 0–10, exceptionally unlikely 0–1. Additional terms extremely likely 95–100, more likely than not 50–100, more unlikely than likely 0–50, extremely unlikely 0–5 may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, for example, very likely. This is consistent with IPCC AR5. 10Land’s potential net primary production NPP is defined in this report as the amount of carbon accumulated through photosynthesis minus the amount lost by plant respiration over a specified time period that would prevail in the absence of land use. 11In its conceptual framework, IPBES uses “nature’s contribution to people” in which it includes ecosystem goods and services. 12i.e. estimated at 75 trillion for 2011, based on US dollars for 2007. 13This statement is based on the most comprehensive data from national statistics available within FAOSTAT, which starts in 1961. This does not imply that the changes started in 1961. Land use changes have been taking place from well before the pre-industrial period to the present. SPM approved draft IPCC SRCCL Page | 3 Subject to copy edit and layout large regional variation, these changes have contributed to increasing net GHG emissions very high confidence, loss of natural ecosystems e.g. forests, savannahs, natural grasslands and wetlands and declining biodiversity high confidence. {1.1, 1.3, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1} A1.4. Data available since 1961 shows the per capita supply of vegetable oils and meat has more than doubled and the supply of food calories per capita has increased by about one third high confidence. Currently, 25-30 of total food produced is lost or wasted medium confidence. These factors are associated with additional GHG emissions high confidence. Changes in consumption patterns have contributed to about 2 billion adults now being overweight or obese high confidence. An estimated 821 million people are still undernourished high confidence. {1.1, 1.3, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1} A1.5. About a quarter of the Earth’s ice-free land area is subject to human-induced degradation medium confidence. Soil erosion from agricultural fields is estimated to be currently 10 to 20 times no tillage to more than 100 times conventional tillage higher than the soil ation rate medium confidence. Climate change exacerbates land degradation, particularly in low-lying coastal areas, river deltas, drylands and in permafrost areas high confidence. Over the period 1961-2013, the annual area of drylands in drought has increased, on average by slightly more than 1 per year, with large inter-annual variability. In 2015, about 500 380-620 million people lived within areas which experienced desertification between the 1980s and 2000s. The highest numbers of people affected are in South and East Asia, the circum Sahara region including North Africa, and the Middle East including the Arabian peninsula low confidence. Other dryland regions have also experienced desertification. People living in already degraded or desertified areas are increasingly negatively affected by climate change high confidence. {1.1, 1.2, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, Figure SPM.1} Land use and observed climate change Final draft SPM IPCC SRCCL Page | 4 1 2 3 Prence of overweight obese 4 Prence of underweight Total calories per capita Population CHANGE in emissions rel. to 1961 B. GHG emissions An estimated 23 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 2007-2016 derive from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU. E. Food demand Increases in production are linked to consumption changes. F. Desertification and land degradation Land-use change, land-use intensification and climate change have contributed to desertification and land degradation. CHANGE in rel. to 1961 and 1970 CHANGE in rel. to 1961 and 1975 1 2 3 Inland wetland extent Dryland areas in drought annually Population in areas experiencing desertification 1 2 3 CHANGE in rel. to 1961 1 2 3 Irrigation water volume 4 Total number of ruminant livestock Cereal yields Inorganic N fertiliser use Intensive pasture 2 12 12 - 14 1 1 - 1 37 30 - 47 22 16 - 23 28 24 - 31 Used savannahs and shrublands 16Plantation forests 2 Forests managed for timber and other uses 20Irrigated cropland 2 Infrastructure 1 Non-irrigated cropland 10 Unforested ecosystems with minimal human use 7 Forests intact or primary with minimal human use 9 Other land barren, rock 12 Global ice-free land surface 100 130 Mkm 0 10 20 30 Net CO emissions from FOLU Gt CO/yr NO emissions from Agriculture Gt COeq/yr CH emissions from Agriculture Gt COeq/yr A. Observed temperature change relative to 1850-1900 Since the pre-industrial period 1850-1900 the observed mean land surface air temperature has risen considerably more than the global mean surface land and ocean temperature GMST. C. Global land use in circa 2015 The barchart depicts shares of dierent uses of the global, ice-free land area. Bars are ordered along a gradient of decreasing land-use intensity from le to right. Extensive pasture 19 D. Agricultural production Land use change and rapid land use intensification have supported the increasing production of food, feed and fibre. Since 1961, the total production of food cereal crops has increased by 240 until 2017 because of land area expansion and increasing yields. Fibre production cotton increased by 162 until 2013. 2 1 3 50 -50 150 250 100 0 200 50 -50 150 250 100 0 200 1 2 3 4 4 1 2 3 1850 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2018 2 0 4 6 1 2 3 0.5 1.5 1 0 -0.5 2 CHANGE in TEMPERATURE rel. to 1850-1900 C Change in surface air temperature over land C Change in global land-ocean mean surface temperature GMST C Gt COeq/yr 1961 1980 2000 2016 1961 1980 2000 2017 1961 1980 2000 2017 50 -50 150