减少碳排放 – 全球视野奥特玛 施万克博士 （施万克地球之友公司）2019.5.22Carbon Emission Reduction - a Global PerspectiveOthmar Schwank Schwank Earthpartner Ltd. Content目录1. The Challenge Global Warming and Changing Climate2. Carbon Emission trends3. Paris Agreement goals , approach4. Challenges of Emission Reduction meeting 2 oC pathway5. Action fields and SSLCC1. 挑战全球变暖和气候变化2. 碳排放趋势3. 巴黎协定目标、方法4. 实现 2摄氏度减排途径的挑战5. SSLCC项目和涉及的领域 Since 1850, global mean temperature increased by 1 degree to 14.5 oC, IPCC Accelerated warming since 1980ies We live in warm period within variability of last 10’000 years, 15 oC Climate continued changing in historic times 自 1850年以来，全球平均气温上升了 1度（达到 14.5摄氏度， IPCC） 自 1980年代以来的加速变暖 我们生活在温暖时期（在过去的 1万年的变化范围内， 15摄氏度） 历史时期气候持续变化来源 IPCC评估报告 4Source IPCC Assessment report 4北半球近地表温度来源 Schnwiese 1995 Near Surface temperatures northern hemisphere, Source Schnwiese 1995 The Challenge Global Warming, Changing Climate挑战全球变暖，气候变化Glaciers are shrinking from Alps to Himalayas e.g. Rhone Glacier从阿尔卑斯山到喜马拉雅山的冰川正在退缩（例如罗纳河冰川）Limit global warming to 2 degrees or to 15.5 oC - limiting warming impacts Reduced Ice cover of Earth Mountains, Arctic Loss of freshwater resources Biodiversity losses limit deforestation and desertification将全球变暖限制在 2度（或 15.5摄氏度） -限制变暖影响 地球冰盖减少（高山，北极 圈 ） 淡水资源损失 生物多样性损失（限制森林砍伐）和沙漠化1850 2000Global CO2 Emissions are rising全球二氧化碳排放量正在上升1990一个标准偏差的不确定性为 5 （ IPCC“可能”的范围）1. 将全球平均气温上升保持在 工业前水平2摄氏度以下 ，并努力将气温上升限制在工业前水平 1.5摄氏度 以上2. 为了实现长期温度目标，缔约方的目标是尽快达到 全球温室气体排放峰值 ，认识到发展中国家缔约方的峰值时间将更长3. 发达国家缔约方应继续带头实施全经济范围内的绝对减排目标4. 各缔约方 在本世纪下半叶实现了源于人类的排放与温室气体的排放 （净零排放）之间的平衡1. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels2. In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties3. Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets.4. Parties achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century net zero emissionsParis Agreement Frame, Goals巴黎协定框架、目标Global CO2 Emission Trends Main Emitters全球二氧化碳排放趋势主要排放者来源地球系统科学数据， 2018年全球碳预算Source Earth System Science Data,Global Carbon Budget 2018工业化国家和新兴经济体（中国 /印度）的不同二氧化碳排放轨迹Different CO2 emission trajectoriesIn industrialized countries andEmerging economies China/India欧盟 28国和中国的人均二氧化碳排放量约为 8吨Per capital-emissions around 8t CO2 in EU28 and China. Challenges of Emission Reduction meeting 2 oC pathway对于 2 摄氏度路径，全球排放量需要从 2020年开始减少，到 2080年达到净零排放 For 2 oC pathway global emissions would need to decrease from 2020 on, reaching net zero by 2080 10 GtCO2/yr来源 2015/2017年全球碳预算分析（全球碳项目（ GCP）Source Global carbon budget analysis 2015/2017 Global Carbon Project GCP 实现 2摄氏度减排途径的挑战 Global peaking of CO2 emissions by 2020 and net zero emissions by 2080 are extremely challenging goals Reduction to 10 Gt CO2 /yr by 2050 may meet 2 oCpathway as well - 1t CO2 /cap/yr - China would still have to reduce carbon emission until 2050 by 60 after peaking in 2025/30 到 2020年全球二氧化碳排放达到峰值，到 2080年实现净零排放是极具挑战性的目标 到 2050年，将二氧化碳排放量降低到 10吨 /年，可能也会达到 2摄氏度的排放途径 -1吨二氧化碳 /二氧化碳排放量/年 -在 2025/30年达到峰值后，中国仍需在 2050年之前将碳排放量减少 60以上资料来源全球规则掩盖了发展中国家面临的减缓挑战，蒋雪梅等 （全球碳项目）Source Global Rules Mask the Mitigation Challenge Facing Developing Countries Xuemei Jiang et al.Global Carbon Project GCP Challenges of emission reduction meeting 2 oC pathway II实现 2摄氏度减排途径的挑战 续 Energy mix increasing share of renewable energies能源结构增加了可再生能源的份额 Global 2 oC pathway scenario with peaking of fossil fuel use by 2025/2030 The greatest mitigation challenges lie in the developing world As Paris Agreement interpretation of 2 degree path is highly ambitious - revisit its science base - apply precautionary principle 全球 2摄氏度路径，到 2025/2030年化石燃料使用达到峰值 最大的减缓挑战在于发展中国家 由于 巴黎协定 对 2度路径的解释非常雄心勃勃-重新审视其科学基础-应用预防原则太阳能和风能Solar and windBiomassTransport交通Curricular Economy, Waste循环经济、固废管理Food, Agriculture and Forestry食品、农业与林业Energy能源Green Buildings绿色建筑Policies, procedures and best practices 政策、步骤、最佳实践案例Action fields addressing carbon emission reduction碳 排放行动领域Thank you谢谢