Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industryz Cement is used to make concrete for buildings and infrastructure, which are important for quality of life, and social and economic wellbeing. The cement sector is the third-largest industrial energy consumer, comprising 7 of the global industrial energy use 10.7 EJ. Cement production involves the decomposition of limestone calcium carbonate, which represents about two-thirds of the total CO 2emissions generated in the process, with the remainder of CO 2emissions being due to combustion of fuels. Thus despite considerable progress on energy efficiency, the use of alternative fuels and clinker replacements, the sector has the second-largest share of total direct 1industrial CO 2emissions, at 27 2.2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2014. z Rising global population and urbanisation patterns, coupled with infrastructure development needs, drive up the demand for cement and concrete. Global cement production is set to grow by 12-23 by 2050 from the current level. Direct CO 2emissions from the 1. D i r e c t CO 2emissions refer to emissions that are generated and released in the cement production process. Cement production by region 0 10 00 20 00 30 00 40 00 50 00 60 00 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mt cement/yr Africa MiddleE ast Eurasia Europe Other Asia Pacific India China America World high-variability case World low-variabilityc ase cement industry are expected to increase by 4 globally under the IEA Reference Technology Scenario RTS by 2050 despite an increase of 12 in global cement production. Realising the sustainable transition of the 2 degree Celsius Scenario 2DS implies a significant reduction of the global direct CO 2emissions by 24 compared to current levels by 2050 still with the expected increase in global cement production. This represents cumulative emissions reductions of 7.7 GtCO 2compared to the RTS by 2050, equivalent to around 90 of current total global industrial direct CO 2emissions.z Adopting a whole life-cycle approach and working collaboratively along the whole construction value chain offers additional opportunities for carbon emissions reductions beyond cement manufacturing. Optimising the use of concrete in construction by reducing waste, encouraging reuse and recycling, maximising design life and using concrete’s properties to minimise operational energy of the built environment, are key strategies in this area. Key findingsGlobal direct CO 2emissions reductions between the 2DS and the RTS by mitigation lever Carbon emissions mitigation levers Spotlight Alternative binding materials 1 500 1 700 1 900 2 100 2 300 2 500 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Direct O emissions MtCO /yr C 2 2 Thermal energy efficiency 3 Fuel witching 12 s Reduction f clinker o o cement ratio 37 t Innovative echnologies t incl. arbon capture 48 c 2DS RTS RTS Low-variability case Roadmap vision 2DS Low-variability case 2014 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Cement production Mt/yr 4 171 4 250 4 429 4 682 4 250 4 429 4 682 Clinker to cement ratio 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.63 0.60 Thermal energy intensity of clinker GJ/t clinker 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 Electricity intensity of cement kWh/t cement 91 89 86 82 87 83 79 Alternative fuel use share of thermal energy 5.6 10.9 14.4 17. 5 17. 5 25.1 30.0 CO 2captured and stored MtCO 2 /yr - 7 65 83 14 173 552 Direct process CO 2intensity of cement tCO 2 /t cement 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.24 Direct CO 2intensity of cement [tCO 2 /t cement] 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.52 0.46 0.36 Notes Thermal energy and electricity intensities exclude impacts related to the implementation of other carbon mitigation levers beyond energy efficiency. Electricity intensity excludes reduction in purchased electricity demand from the use of waste heat recovery equipment. Alternative fuel use includes biomass as well as renewable and non-biogenic waste. Direct CO 2intensity refers to net CO 2emissions, after carbon capture. There is an urgent need to mobilise public-private investment to support the sustainable transition of the cement industry. Realising the RTS would require between USD 107 and 127 billion global additional cumulative investments by 2050 compared to the status quo. Achieving the 2DS would require increasing those investments by between USD 176 and 244 billion cumulatively. Note Percentages provided refer to the contribution of each carbon emissions reduction lever to the total direct CO 2emissions reductions cumulatively along the modelling horizon. Roadmap visionz  I m p ro vi ng  e ne rg y  e f fi c i e nc y deploying existing state-of-the-art technologies in new cement plants and retrofitting existing facilities. z Switching to alternative fuels fuels that are less c a r b o ni nte n si vet h a nco nve nt i o n a lf u e l s promoting the use of biomass and waste materials in cement kilns to offset the consumption of carbon-intensive fossil fuels.z  R e d u c i n gt h ec l i n ke rt oce m e ntr at i o increasing the use of blended materials and the market deployment of blended cements.z  U si n ge m e r g i n ga n di n n ov at i vete c h n o l o g i e st h at  contribute to the decarbonisation of electricity generation by adopting excess heat recovery technologies and support the adoption of renewable-based power generation integrate carbon capture into the cement manufacturing process for long-lasting storage.  C o n v e r t i n gt oa l t e r n a t i v eb i n d i n gm a t e r i a l s offering potential opportunities for process CO 2 emissions reductions by using different mixes of raw materials or alternatives compared to Portland cement, although their commercial availability and applicability differ widely. Due to the current lack of an independent, publicly available and robust life-cycle assessment for a comparative quantification of the benefits of alternative binding materials, it has not been possible to include them in this techno-economic-based uation of least-cost technology pathways for cement production.Roadmap milestones 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Energy efficiency Eliminating energy price subsidies. Phasing-out inefficient long-dry kilns and wet production processes. Plant-level or sector-level energy efficiency improvement target setting programmes. Switching to alternative fuels and raw materials Deployment of a circular economy. Strengthening waste management regulations and give priority to waste co-processing versus incineration and landfilling. Exchanging international best practice for traceability, impact monitoring. Training of authorities for permits, control, and supervision. Raise public awareness of the benefits of optimal waste management. Reduction of the clinker- to-cement ratio Developing cement and concrete standards and codes that allow more widespread use of blended cements while ensuring product reliability and durability at final application. Fostering the use of blended cements in sourcing and public procurement policies. Ensuring traceability/labelling/ ethical and responsible sourcing of construction materials. RD efforts in potential cement blending materials that cannot currently be used due to quality constraints. Promoting international training with national standardisation bodies and accreditation institutes. Emerging and innovative technologies Mitigating risks through investment mechanisms that leverage private funding for low-carbon innovative technologies and through the promotion of private-public partnerships. Achieving the commercial-scale demonstration of oxy- fuel carbon capture in cement production and gain experience in operating large-scale post-combustion technologies in cement plants. Continuing to accelerate commercial deployment of CCS. Co-ordinating the identification and demonstration of CO 2transport networks on a regional, national and international level to optimise infrastructure development. International co-operation to harmonise approaches for safe site selection, operation, maintenance, monitoring and verification of CO 2permanent storage. Developing internationally co- ordinated regulatory frameworks for CCS and to educate and in public and key stakeholders about carbon storage to build social acceptance. Rewarding clean energy investments and provision of flexibility to local energy grids, for example fiscal incentives for excess heat recovery. Alternative binding materials Supporting the demonstration, testing and earlier stage research for cements based on alternative binders, and to develop standards to facilitate market deployment. Continuing the commercial deployment of alternative binding materials. Transitioning to a low- carbon built environment Pursuing efforts towards stable and effective international carbon pricing mechanisms encompassed with interim financial stimulus packages and complementary measures to compensate asymmetric pricing pressures in different markets. Strengthening and implementing building regulations aiming at achieving carbon neutrality of the built environment over its entire life-cycle. Enhancing the development and deployment of low-carbon solutions in the construction sector that consider a life-cycle approach, by including them in their public procurement policies. Training architects/engineers on the applicability of low-carbon concrete mixes and blended cements fostering eco-design opportunities in buildings and infrastructure.Global thermal energy mix in cement in the 2DS Global average estimates of cement composition Global deployment of carbon capture for permanent storage in the cement sector in the 2DS Global aggregated thermal energy intensity of clinker and electricity intensity of cement production in the 2DS Carbon mitigation levers Notes AF alternative fuels. Alternative fuels refer to fuels from full or partial biogenic origin or from fossil fuel origin and not classified as traditional fossil fuels, which are used as a source of thermal energy. Note Waste includes biogenic and non-biogenic waste sources. Notes Cement composition estimates are provided as shares of cement production on a mass basis. 2050 global average cement composition estimates are based on the low- variability case of the 2DS. 2 65 13 6 8 5 2014 Clinker Blastf urnace andsteelslag Flya sh Limestone Naturalpozzolana Gypsum Calcinedclay 1 2 60 7 18 4 8 2050-2DS 0 25 50 75 100 0 200 400 600 800 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Captured MtCO /yr 2 Full oxy-fuel Partial oxy-fuel Post-combustion CapturedC O- 2 Low-variabilityc ase Captured CO share 2 of generatedC O- 2 Low-variability case CapturedC O- 2 High-variability case Captured CO share 2 of generatedC O- 2 High-variability case 2050 - 2DS 2050 - 2DS 2040 - 2DS 2040 - 2DS 2030 - 2DS 2030 - 2DS 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 Low-variability case High-variability case Waste Biomass Natural gas Oil Coal 0 1 2 3 4 2014 2030 -2 DS 2050-2 DS GJ/t clinker 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2014 2030 -2 DS 2050 -2 DS kWh/tcement Low-variability case Carboncapture energyimpact Claycalcination energyimpact IncreasedAF useenergy impact Energyintensity onlyenergy efficiency Low-variability case