M a y 2019 Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy SystemNuclear Power in a Clean Energy System Abstract PAGE | 1 IEA. All rights reserved. Abstract Nuclear power and hydropower the backbone of low-carbon electricity generation. Together, they provide three-quarters of global low-carbon generation. Over the past 50 years, the use of nuclear power has reduced carbon dioxide CO 2 emissions by over 60 gigatonnes – nearly two years’ worth of global energy-related emissions. However, in advanced economies, nuclear power has begun to fade, with plants closing and little new investment made, just when the world requires more low-carbon electricity. This report, Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System, focuses on the role of nuclear power in advanced economies and the factors that put nuclear power at risk of future decline. It is shown that without action, nuclear power in advanced economies could fall by two-thirds by 2040. The implications of such a “Nuclear Fade Case” for costs, emissions and electricity security using two World Energy Outlook scenarios – the New Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario are examined. Achieving the pace of CO 2emissions reductions in line with the Paris Agreement is already a huge challenge, as shown in the Sustainable Development Scenario. It requires large increases in efficiency and renewables investment, as well as an increase in nuclear power. This report identifies the even greater challenges of attempting to follow this path with much less nuclear power. It recommends several possible government actions that aim to ensure existing nuclear power plants can operate as long as they are safe, support new nuclear construction and encourage new nuclear technologies to be developed. Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System Foreword PAGE | 2 IEA. All rights reserved. Foreword As the leading energy organisation covering all fuels and all technologies, the International Energy Agency IEA cannot ignore the role of nuclear power. That is why we are releasing our first report on the subject in nearly two decades in the hope of bringing it back into the global energy debate. We are highlighting the issue at a critical time. The failure to expand low-carbon electricity generation is the single most important reason the world is falling short on key sustainable energy goals, including international climate targets, as we have highlighted repeatedly this year. The question is what nuclear power’s role should be in this transition. Put another way Can we achieve a clean energy transition without nuclear power For advanced economies, nuclear has been the biggest low-carbon source of electricity for more than 30 years, and it has played an important role in the security of energy supplies in several countries. But it now faces an uncertain future as ageing plants begin to shut down in advanced economies, partly because of policies to phase them out but also under pressure from market conditions and regulatory barriers. Our report, Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System, assesses its current role and considers its mid- and long-term outlook, especially in competitive electricity systems. This report is part of an expanding view the IEA is taking of the global energy system. In June, we will be releasing another analysis on the future of hydrogen, at the request of the Japanese presidency of the G20 this year. We are also holding various high-level meetings to underscore the critical elements needed for a successful transition – including a high-level ministerial conference in Dublin next month on energy efficiency and another ministerial meeting on systems integration of renewables in Berlin in September 2019. Government policies have so far failed to value the low-carbon and energy security attributes of nuclear power, making even the continued operation of existing plants challenging. New projects have been plagued by cost overruns and delays. These trends mean nuclear power could soon be on the decline worldwide. If governments don’t change their current policies, advanced economies will be on track to lose two-thirds of their current nuclear fleet, risking a huge increase in CO2 emissions. Without action to provide more support for nuclear power, global efforts to transition to a cleaner energy system will become drastically harder and more costly. Wind and solar energy need to play a much greater role in order for countries to meet sustainability goals, but it is extremely difficult to envisage them doing so without help from nuclear power. Some countries have decided to refrain from using nuclear power, and their choice is well respected. However, those that aim to continue using it represent the majority of global energy use and CO 2emissions. As governments seek to achieve a diversified mix in their energy transitions, the IEA remains ready to provide support with data, analysis and real-world solutions. Dr Fatih Birol cutive Director International Energy Agency Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System cutive summary PAGE | 3 IEA. All rights reserved. cutive summary Nuclear power can play an important role in clean energy transitions Nuclear power today makes a significant contribution to electricity generation, providing 10 of global electricity supply in 2018. In advanced economies, 1nuclear power accounts for 18 of generation and is the largest low-carbon source of electricity. However, its share of global electricity supply has been declining in recent years. That has been driven by advanced economies, where nuclear fleets are ageing, additions of new capacity have dwindled to a trickle, and some plants built in the 1970s and 1980s have been retired. This has slowed the transition towards a clean electricity system. Despite the impressive growth of solar and wind power, the overall share of clean energy sources in total electricity supply in 2018, at 36, was the same as it was 20 years earlier because of the decline in nuclear. Halting that slide will be vital to stepping up the pace of the decarbonisation of electricity supply. A range of technologies, including nuclear power, will be needed for clean energy transitions around the world. Global energy is increasingly based around electricity. That means the key to making energy systems clean is to turn the electricity sector from the largest producer of CO 2 emissions into a low-carbon source that reduces fossil fuel emissions in areas like transport, heating and industry. While renewables are expected to continue to lead, nuclear power can also play an important part along with fossil fuels using carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Countries envisaging a future role for nuclear account for the bulk of global energy demand and CO 2emissions. But to achieve a trajectory consistent with sustainability targets – including international climate goals – the expansion of clean electricity would need to be three times faster than at present. It would require 85 of global electricity to come from clean sources by 2040, compared with just 36 today. Along with massive investments in efficiency and renewables, the trajectory would need an 80 increase in global nuclear power production by 2040. Nuclear power plants contribute to electricity security in multiple ways. Nuclear plants help to keep power grids stable. To a certain extent, they can adjust their operations to follow demand and supply shifts. As the share of variable renewables like wind and solar photovoltaics PV rises, the need for such services will increase. Nuclear plants can help to limit the impacts from seasonal fluctuations in output from renewables and bolster energy security by reducing dependence on imported fuels. Lifetime extensions of nuclear power plants are crucial to getting the energy transition back on track Policy and regulatory decisions remain critical to the fate of ageing reactors in advanced economies. The average age of their nuclear fleets is 35 years. The European Union and the United States have the largest active nuclear fleets over 100 gigawatts each, and they are also among the oldest the average reactor is 35 years old in the European Union and 39 years old in the United States. The original design lifetime for operations was 40 years in most cases. Around one-quarter of the current nuclear capacity in advanced economies is set to be shut down by 2025 – mainly because of policies to reduce nuclear’s role. The fate of the remaining capacity depends on decisions about lifetime extensions in the coming years. In the United States, for example, some 90 reactors have 60-year operating licenses, yet several have 1Advanced economies consist of Australia, Canada, Chile, the 28 members of the European Union, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and the United States. Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System cutive summary PAGE | 4 IEA. All rights reserved. already been retired early and many more are at risk. In Europe, Japan and other advanced economies, extensions of plants’ lifetimes also face uncertain prospects. Economic factors are also at play. Lifetime extensions are considerably cheaper than new construction and are generally cost-competitive with other electricity generation technologies, including new wind and solar projects. However, they still need significant investment to replace and refurbish key components that enable plants to continue operating safely. Low wholesale electricity and carbon prices, together with new regulations on the use of water for cooling reactors, are making some plants in the United States financially unviable. In addition, markets and regulatory systems often penalise nuclear power by not pricing in its value as a clean energy source and its contribution to electricity security. As a result, most nuclear power plants in advanced economies are at risk of closing prematurely. The hurdles to investment in new nuclear projects in advanced economies are daunting What happens with plans to build new nuclear plants will significantly affect the chances of achieving clean energy transitions. Preventing premature decommissioning and enabling longer extensions would reduce the need to ramp up renewables. But without new construction, nuclear power can only provide temporary support for the shift to cleaner energy systems. The biggest barrier to new nuclear construction is mobilising investment. Plans to build new nuclear plants face concerns about competitiveness with other power generation technologies and the very large size of nuclear projects that require billions of dollars in upfront investment. Those doubts are especially strong in countries that have introduced competitive wholesale markets. A number of challenges specific to the nature of nuclear power technology may prevent investment from going ahead. The main obstacles relate to the sheer scale of investment and long lead times; the risk of construction problems, delays and cost overruns; and the possibility of future changes in policy or the electricity system itself. There have been long delays in completing advanced reactors that are still being built in Finland, France and the United States. They have turned out to cost far more than originally expected and dampened investor interest in new projects. For example, Korea has a much better record of completing construction of new projects on time and on budget, although the country plans to reduce its reliance on nuclear power. Without nuclear investment, achieving a sustainable energy system will be much harder A collapse in investment in existing and new nuclear plants in advanced economies would have implications for emissions, costs and energy security. In the case where no further investments are made in advanced economies to extend the operating lifetime of existing nuclear power plants or to develop new projects, nuclear power capacity in those countries would decline by around two-thirds by 2040. Under the current policy ambitions of governments, while renewable investment would continue to grow, gas and, to a lesser extent, coal would play significant roles in replacing nuclear. This would further increase the importance of gas for countries’ electricity security. Cumulative CO 2emissions would rise by 4 billion tonnes by 2040, adding to the already considerable difficulties of reaching emissions targets. Investment needs would increase by almost USD 340 billion as new power generation capacity and supporting grid infrastructure is built to offset retiring nuclear plants. Achieving the clean energy transition with less nuclear power is possible but would require an extraordinary effort. Policy makers and regulators would have to find ways to create the conditions to spur the necessary investment in other clean energy technologies. Advanced economies would face a sizeable shortfall of low-carbon electricity. Wind and solar PV would be the main sources called upon to replace nuclear, and their pace of growth would need to accelerate at an unprecedented rate. Over the past 20 years, wind and solar PV capacity has increased by about 580 GW in advanced economies. But in Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System cutive summary PAGE | 5 IEA. All rights reserved. the next 20 years, nearly five times that much would need to be built to offset nuclear’s decline. For wind and solar PV to achieve that growth, various non-market barriers would need to be overcome such as public and social acceptance of the projects themselves and the associated expansion in network infrastructure. Nuclear power, meanwhile, can contribute to easing the technical difficulties of integrating renewables and lowering the cost of transing the electricity system. With nuclear power fading away, electricity systems become less flexible. Options to offset this include new gas-fired power plants, increased storage such as pumped storage, batteries or chemical technologies like hydrogen and demand-side actions in which consumers are encouraged to shift or lower their consumption in real time in response to price signals. Increasing interconnection with neighbouring systems would also provide additional flexibility, but its effectiveness diminishes when all systems in a region have very high shares of wind and solar PV. Offsetting less nuclear power with more renewables would cost more Taking nuclear out of the equation results in higher electricity prices for consumers. A sharp decline in nuclear in advanced economies would mean a substantial increase in investment needs for other s of power generation and the electricity network. Around USD 1.6 trillion in additional investment would be required in the electricity sector in advanced economies from 2018 to 2040. Despite recent declines in wind and solar costs, adding new renewable capacity requires considerably more capital investment than extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear reactors. The need