WMO-No. 1031WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2007This Statement is a summary of ination provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom, and, in the United States, by the National Climatic Data Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the National Interagency Fire Center and NOAA’s National Weather Service. Other contributors are WMO Member countries Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Fiji, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and Tunisia. The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development ACMAD, Niamey, the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO, the International Research Centre on El Nio CIIFEN, Guayaquil, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCC, Offenbach, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ICPAC, Nairobi, the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre SADC DMC, Gaborone and the World Climate Research Programme WCRP also contributed. WMO-No. 1031 World Meteorological Organization, 2008The right of publication in print, electronic and any other and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication articles in part or in whole should be addressed toChairperson, Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization WMO7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel. 41 0 22 730 84 03P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax 41 0 22 730 80 40CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail publicationswmo.intISBN 92-63-11031-1Cover Dancing with the clouds. Illustration by Ka-Woon Ng, 12 years old, Hong Kong, ChinaNOTEThe designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.Through its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization IMO, and since 1950 on its own account, the World Meteorological Organization WMO has been very active in the field of climate ever since the First International Meteorological Congress was convened in Vienna in 1873. The IMO Commission for Climatology was established in 1929 and fifty years later, in 1979, WMO organized the First World Climate Conference, in collaboration with such partners as the International Council for Science, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This historic conference would soon lead to the establishment of WMO’s own World Climate Programme and, in 1980, that of the World Climate Research Programme with the International Council for Science and later the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Furthermore, the conference would also pave the way for the establishment, in 1988, of the WMO/UNEP co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, which recently received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for its efforts “to build up and dis-seminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”.The Second World Climate Conference, organized by WMO and its partners in 1990, provided decisive momentum to the interna-tional efforts that resulted in the development of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and the Global Climate Observing System. In the midst of these significant contributions, in 1993 WMO began to issue an annual statement on the status of the global climate, which has by now become an established source of infor-mation eagerly sought after, each year, by the scientific community and the media. The WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2007 is the latest in this successful series.It is relevant to recall that 2007 was a special year in many respects, for it was during 2007 that the IPCC issued the different compo-nents of its Fourth Assessment Report, which then served as a fundamental contribution to the thirteenth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP-13, held in Bali, Indonesia, from 3 to 14 December 2007. In Bali, WMO actively contributed to the session and organized a successful side event, Improved decision-making for climate adaptation providing a science basis. Furthermore, the International Polar Year 2007–2008, launched in 2007 as a WMO co-sponsored scientific venture, is also making a key contribution to our increasing understanding of the global climate system. In following suite, in May 2007 the Fifteenth World Meteorological Congress decided that in 2009 WMO would organize with partners a World Climate Conference-3, under the overall theme of climate prediction for decision-making.I would like to stress, once more, the impor-tance of receiving feedback from Members on the relevance and content of these statements. A questionnaire circulated by WMO among recipients of the 2006 Statement revealed important messages that were used proac-tively in preparing the present issue. WMO therefore looks forward to your comments on the WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2007, or to your suggestions for further improvement. M. JarraudSecretary-GeneralForewordGlobal temperatures during 2007The analyses made by leading climate centres rank the year 2007 amongst the ten warmest years on record. The Met Office Hadley Centre analyses showed that the global mean surface temperature in 2007 was 0.40C 0.72F above the 1961–1990 annual average 14C/57.2F and hence marks the seventh warmest year on record. According to the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the global mean surface temperature anomaly was 0.55C 0.99F above the twentieth century average 1901–2000 of 13.9C 56.9F, which ranks 2007 the fifth warmest year in its record.January 2007 was the warmest January since global surface records were instituted.Based on the Met Office Hadley Centre analy-ses, 2007 surface temperatures averaged separately for each hemisphere were 0.62C 1.12F above the 30-year mean of 14.6C 58.28F for the northern hemisphere second warmest year on record and 0.18C 0.32F above the 30-year mean of 13.4C 56.12F for the southern hemisphere tenth warmest year on record. The global average temperature for January was 12.7C 54.9F, compared with the 1961–1990 January long-term average of 12.1C 53.8F.Figure 1 – Annual global and hemispheric combined land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature SST anomalies, 1850–2007, with respect to the 1961–1990 mean. The source data are blended land surface air temperature and SST from the HadCRUT3 series Brohan et al., 2006. Values are simple area-weighted averages. Source Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKFigure 2 – Global ranked surface temperatures for the warmest 50 years. Inset shows global ranked surface temperatures from 1850. The size of the bars indicates the 95 per cent confidence limits associated with each year. The source data are blended land surface air temperature and SST from the HadCRUT3 series Brohan et al., 2006. Values are simple area-weighted averages for the whole year. Source Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK10 20 30 40 50Rank−0.20.00.20.40.6Anomaly C with respect to 1961−1990199820052003 200220042006200720011997199519991990 20001991198319871994198819811996198019931989194419411973 197719791992187819861877194019391982196919841985 1958193819451962194319611937196319781972195319421990−20071970−19891950−19691930−19491910−19291890−19091850−18890 50 100 150Rank−0.50.00.5a Globe1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.00.20.40.6b Northern hemisphere1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.2c Southern hemisphere1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20.00.20.40.6Difference C from 1961−1990Difference C from 1961−1990Difference C from 1961−1990180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 18090S60S30S030N60N90N − −− −−−−− −−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−Figure 3 – Global field of temperature anomalies C, relative to 1961–1990 for 2007. Crosses indicate that the anomaly in a pixel is the warmest in the 158-year record. Source Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKAll temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in data coverage. The size of the uncertainties is such that the global average temperature for 2007 is statistically indistinguishable from each of the nine warm-est years on record.Since the beginning of the twentieth century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C, but this increase has not been continuous. The linear warming trend over the past 50 years 0.13C per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years.Note Following established practice, WMO global tempera-ture analyses are based on two different data sets. One is the combined data set maintained by the Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The other is maintained by the United States Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Both centres use improved temperature analyses, but different ologies. These differing ologies result in small differences in global rankings.Regional temperature anomaliesWarmer-than-average annual temperatures affected most land areas of the world, with the exception of cooler-than-average anomalies in the southern parts of South America. The largest warmer-than-average annual anomalies affected high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere including much of North America, Europe and Asia. Annual temperature anoma-lies in these regions reached 2–4C 3.6–7.2F above the 1961–1990 average. In the Russian Federation, 2007 was the warmest in 150 years of hydrometeorological measurements.Much of the North Atlantic was significantly warm, a pattern that reflects the continuing warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, which began in the mid-1990s. Sea surface temperatures in large areas of the Southern Ocean were below average. The year 2007 started with record-break-ing temperature anomalies throughout the world. In parts of Europe, winter and spring ranked among the warmest ever recorded, with anomalies of more than 4C 7F above the long-term monthly averages for January and April. Extreme high temperatures occurred in much of Western Australia from early January to early March, with February temperatures more than 5C above average. Antarctic ozone hole 25 million km at its peak in mid-SeptemberArctic sea iceAll-time lowest extenton record in September;surpassed previous record set in 2005 by 23 per centENSONeutral ENSO transitions into a weak La Niain late August; moderate La Nia developed late yearEurasian snow cover extentSecond lowest extent on record for Januarybehind 1981 and April behind 1990; third lowest extentfor 2006–2007 winterAtlantic hurricane seasonNear average activity15 storms, 6 hurricanes; first timesince 1886, two category 5 hurricanesmade landfall in the same seasonGlobal tropical cyclone activityBelow-average activity79 storms44 hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones18 “major” hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones East Pacific hurricane seasonBelow-average activity11 storms, 4 hurricanesSouth Pacific tropical cyclone seasonBelow-average activity8 storms, 4 cyclonesNorth-west Pacific typhoon seasonBelow-average activity24 storms, 14 typhoonsAustralian cyclone seasonBelow-average activity5 storms, 5 cyclonesNorth Indian Ocean cyclone seasonAbove-average activity 6 storms, 3 cyclonesSouth Indian Ocean cyclone seasonAbove-average activity10 storms, 8 cyclonesNorth Hemisphere snow cover extentThird lowest extent on recordfor April and springMozambiqueFlooding in February;described as the worstflooding in 6 years Tropical Cyclone George MarchMaximum winds at second landfall 205 km/h;the most destructive cyclone to affect Port Hedland since Joan in 1975 ChinaHeaviest snowfall in 56 years MarchUruguayWorst flooding since 1959 May; more than110 000 people affectedSouth AfricaCold front led to 54 weatherrecords in May. In June,Johannesburg received itsfirst significant snowfall since 1981.AustraliaSixth consecutive year of drought in Murray–DarlingBasin, characterized as the worst in the nation’s history; New South Wales worst flooding in3 decades JuneTropical Cyclone Gonu JuneMaximum winds 260 km/h;maximum winds at landfall 148 km/h;strongest cyclone on record in theArabian Sea and second strongest cyclone in the North Indian OceanUnited KingdomWorst flooding in 60 years July; wettest May–Julysince records began in 1766Burkina FasoHeavy rain and floodingJuly; characterized as theworst flooding in 16 yearsTyphoon Man-Yi JulyMaximum winds at landfall 160 km/h;the most powerful cyclone to hit Japan in July since records began in 1951ArgentinaSeveral nights below freezingtemperatures led to electricity and natural gas shortages May.Buenos Aires experienced its first majorsnowfall since 1918 July.SwitzerlandZurich received its largest dailyrainfall amount in 100 yearsAugust; had its heaviest snowfall since1955 NovemberHurricane Dean AugustMaximum winds 270 km/hFirst major hurricane in the 2007 season and first category 5 to make landfall in the Atlantic basinsince Andrew in 1992; third strongest Atlantichurricane ever at landfallUgandaHeaviestrainfall in35 yearsAugust SudanHeavy rain and floodingJune; described as theworst flooding in decades Typhoon Fitow SeptemberMaximum winds 157 km/h;the strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo since October 2002Hurricane Humberto SeptemberMaximum winds at landfall 137 km/h;first storm on record to intensifyfrom tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane within 16 hours and