pRENEWABLE ENERGY IN NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION Updates to IRENA’s 2017 analysis of the renewable energy components of NDCs Photograph Shutterstock Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs are a cornerstone of the 2015 Paris Agreement. They set out the actions planned by countries in pursuit of shared global climate objectives. In essence, this means striving to limit the rise in average global temperatures to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and ideally to 1.5 C during the present century. Under the historic climate accords, renewables have come to the fore. Renewable energy components, moreover, feature prominently in the first round of NDCs arising from the 2015 Agreement. Of the 152 NDCs that were ally ted to date end-November 2018, some 111, or nearly three quarters, cite specific renewable energy targets, while another 34 acknowledge renewables as an important way to reduce greenhouse gas GHG emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. All Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC, however, still have the opportunity to further strengthen their targets for renewables in the next round of NDCs, planned for 2020.The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA analysed NDC-based renewable energy pledges in late 2017, particularly in relation to national energy plans and actual deployment trends. In many cases, NDCs were seen to be falling behind rapid actual growth in renewables. Even countries without targets in their NDCs often had ambitious plans for renewables in the energy sector, the analysis found IRENA, 2017. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN NDCS IRENA first comprehensive analysis of this issue covered the NDCs ted by 194 Parties to the UNFCCC by mid-October 2017. This entailed reviewing the renewable energy components of NDCs worldwide and estimating the investment required to implement those commitments. The resulting findings were published for COP23, the 23rd Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, in the report Untapped Potential for Climate Action Renewable Energy in Nationally Determined Contributions IRENA, 2017. Since then, ratifications of the Paris Agreement have continued. Some of the Parties that had already ratified it, meanwhile, ted new NDCs, in some cases including updated renewable energy components. This note aims to provide an overview of these changes and update the analysis accordingly. FURTHER RATIFICATIONS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT Since 15 October 2017, 116 new Parties have ratified the Paris Agreement see Table 1. 1 IRENA’s initial NDC analysis considered the ratification status of the Paris Agreement as of 15 October 2017. Table 1 New Parties to the UNFCCC ratifying the Paris Agreement Region Number of new ratifying Parties New ratifying Parties Africa 7 Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mozambique, United Republic of Tanzania Asia 1 Uzbekistan Eurasia, Europe, North America and Oceania 3 Montenegro, San Marino, The er Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Latin America 2 Colombia, Nicaragua Middle East 2 Kuwait, Syrian Arab Republic Small Island Developing States SIDS 1 Trinidad and Tobago Based on UNTC 2018. For detailed ination regarding the regional breakdown see IRENA 2018a.RENEWABLE ENERGY IN NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION As of end-November 2018, all 197 Parties to the UNFCCC have either signed or ratified the Paris Agreement. Specifically, 184 Parties have ratified the Paris Agreement and 152 first NDCs have been ted. 2The remaining 13 Parties have signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement. These are Angola, Eritrea, Iran Islamic Republic of, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, the Russian Federation, South Sudan, Suriname, Turkey and Yemen based on UNTC, 2018. While most Intended Nationally Determined Contributions INDCs automatically became NDCs with the ratification of the Paris Agreement, 11 Parties ted updated documents, that is their NDCs are different from their INDCs. These include Argentina, Belize, Eritrea, Indonesia, Morocco, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Uruguay and Venezuela Bolivarian Republic of. In addition, Canada, El Salvador, Lesotho provided revised versions of their NDCs after their first submission. Libya and the Syrian Arab Republic are the only Parties that have not ted any NDCs. 3 Five Parties have updated their NDCs since IRENA’s October 2017 analysis, namely El Salvador, Eritrea, Lesotho, Uruguay, and Venezuela Bolivarian Republic of. The renewable energy components were updated in four NDCs see Table 2. In addition, Nicaragua ted its first NDC on 3 September 2018. 4This includes the unconditional target of achieving 60 of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2030. 2 EU-28 Members ted a joint NDC. In addition, Brunei Darussalam, Ecuador, Philippines, Senegal and the Syrian Arab Republic have ratified the Paris Agreement but not ted their NDCs, while Eritrea has ted an NDC but not ratified the Agreement based on UNFCCC, 2018. 3 Or Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC in the case of Libya, as the country has not ratified the Paris Agreement. 4 Prior to that the country had not ted any INDC. Table 2 Renewable energy components in new NDCs ted after 15 October 2017 Country Date of new NDC submission Updated renewable energy component in new NDC Detailed changes in renewable energy component El Salvador 30 October 2017 Yes The new NDC provides additional detail on how the country intends to achieve its previously stated renewable energy target. Uruguay 10 November 2017 Yes The new NDC includes detailed renewable energy measures to achieve emission reductions by 2025. Venezuela Bolivarian Republic of 27 February 2018 No Renewable energy targets in the new NDC are unchanged. Eritrea 19 June 2018 Yes The new NDC provides more detailed renewable energy targets e.g. in terms of additional capacity installed for each technology. Lesotho 22 June 2018 Yes The new NDC provides more detailed renewable energy measures. Based on compilation of NDCs as published by governments.UPDATED ESTIMATES FOR RENEWABLES IN NDCS Following the changes described above, the analysis of renewable energy targets in NDCs was updated. New global and regional figures for additional renewable energy capacity are as in Table 3. Updated results of the analysis by country can be browsed through an online data tool published on IRENA’s website IRENA, 2018b. Table 3 Updated IRENA estimates of renewable energy components in NDCs, by region Region Number of Parties Number of I NDCs with renewable energy target Renewable energy capacity added unconditionally GW* Renewable energy capacity added conditionally GW Total additional renewable energy capacity GW Africa 54 45 42 55 97 Asia 29 14 757 250 1007 Eurasia, Europe, North America and Oceania 53 5 27 45 71 Latin America 20 15 79 8 87 Middle East 14 8 8 4 13 SIDS 34 29 2 4 6 Total 197 111 914 367 1281 * GW Gigawatts. Global totals differ from the sum of regional totals as seven SIDS are included simultaneously in other regional groups. For additional detail see IRENA 2018a.RENEWABLE ENERGY IN NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION INVESTMENT NEEDS TO ACHIEVE CLIMATE GOALS Over USD 1.7 trillion would be needed by 2030 to implement renewable energy targets contained in NDCs worldwide, IRENA’s 2017 report found. At least 1.3 terawatts TW of renewable power capacity would be added globally by 2030 as a result of NDC implementation. This would amount to a 76 increase in the global renewable power installed capacity compared to 2014. Notably, such growth expectations, although seemingly ambitious, lagged behind actual trends, as well as falling short of the ambitions expressed in national energy plans. The cost-effective potential for renewables, meanwhile, is much higher than what is captured in current NDCs. Rapid deployment of renewables, coupled with energy efficiency, could achieve around 90 of the emission reductions in the energy sector needed by 2050, while at the same time advancing economic growth and development, IRENA’s analysis found IRENA, 2018c. Upgraded NDCs could build on recent growth rates, pick up targets from national energy plans, and more closely reflect cost-effective potential for renewables. This would strengthen the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement and help significantly to limit the global temperature rise. Photograph ShutterstockREFERENCES IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency 2018a, Assessment of the Renewable Energy Components in Nationally Determined Contributions The ology, IRENA, Abu Dhabi. IRENA 2018b, “Renewable Energy in the NDCs”, IRENA Data amp; Statistics database. Available at http//resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/ topic17amp;subTopic1063 accessed November 2018. IRENA 2018c, Global Energy Transation A roadmap to 2050, IRENA, Abu Dhabi. IRENA 2017, Untapped Potential for Climate Action Renewable Energy in Nationally Determined Contributions, IRENA, Abu Dhabi. UNFCCC 2018, NDC Interim Registry database, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, https//www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/ Pages/Home.aspx accessed 28 November 2018. UNTC United Nations Treaty Collection 2018, Status of the Paris Agreement, https//treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspxsrcTREATYamp;mtdsg_noXXVII- 7-damp;chapter27amp;clang_en accessed 28 November 2018.RENEWABLE ENERGY IN NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION Photograph Shutterstockwww.irena.org Copyright IRENA 2018 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/ or downloaded, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of IRENA as the source and copyright holder is given. Material attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions. ISBN 978-92-9260-093-8 Citation IRENA 2018, Renewable energy in national climate action , Renewables4Climate update for COP24, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material featured therein. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Photograph Shutterstock/p