ISSN 1977-8449EEA Report No 1/2018National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018EEA Report No 1/2018National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018Legal noticeThe contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the ination contained in this report. Copyright notice European Environment Agency, 2018Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.More ination on the European Union is available on the Internet http//europa.eu.Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2018ISBN 978-92-9213-940-7ISSN 1977-8449doi10.2800/348489European Environment AgencyKongens Nytorv 61050 Copenhagen KDenmarkTel. 45 33 36 71 00Web eea.europa.euEnquiries eea.europa.eu/enquiriesCover design EEACover illustration EEA 3ContentsNational climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018ContentsAcknowledgements 5Abbreviations 6cutive summary 81 Introduction . 111.1 Purpose and scope111.2 Outline 131.3 ological approach of this report 131.4 Relevant EU policies 151.5 Related EEA reports 171.6 Earlier activities by EEA member countries181.7 Past and current efforts at guiding CCIV assessments .192 Overview of national adaptation policies and CCIV assessments in Europe 212.1 Overview of national adaptation policies .212.2 Status of national CCIV assessments 222.3 Ination sources for adaptation policy development 242.4 Institutional context 263 Review of national CCIV assessments . 273.1 Assessment purpose.283.2 Assessment scope .293.3 Resources and funding .303.4 Assessment approach and stakeholder involvement 313.5 Scenarios and drivers 343.6 Presentation of assessment results 363.7 Identification of thematic and regional priorities363.8 Consideration of adaptation measures 383.9 Communication of uncertainties .393.10 Dissemination of results 39Contents4 National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 20184 CCIV assessments and national adaptation policy development . 414.1 CCIV assessments in the adaptation policy cycle 414.2 Role of CCIV assessments in national adaptation policy development. 424.3 Development of national adaptation policy and the knowledge base over time. 434.4 Experiences with development and use of national CCIV assessments 515 Reflections and possible future directions for CCIV assessments . 555.1 Assessment purpose, approaches and s 565.2 From impacts assessment to identifying adaptation priorities .575.3 Trends in knowledge needs and the assessment process .575.4 Policy development and CCIV assessments 585.5 Strengthening assessment practice 59References . 61Annex 1 EEA country survey . 645AcknowledgementsNational climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018This report was coordinated by the European Environment Agency EEA with contributions from the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation ETC/CCA.CoordinationHans-Martin Fssel EEA with the support of Andr Jol EEAAuthorsEEA Hans-Martin FsselETC/CCA Tiago Capela Loureno University of Lisbon, Portugal, Clare Downing Oxford University Centre for the Environment, United Kingdom, Mikael Hildn Finnish Environment Institute, Finland, Markus Leitner Environment Agency Austria EAA, Austria, Andreas Marx Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Germany, Andrea Prutsch EAA, Michael Sanderson Met Office, United KingdomComments from the European CommissionClaus Kondrup, Jelena Milos DG Climate ActionComments from National Reference Centres for Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and AdaptationAustria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, United KingdomAcknowledgementsNational climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 20186AbbreviationsAR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportCCCA Climate Change Centre AustriaCCIV Climate change impact, vulnerability and riskCCRA Climate Change Risk Assessment UKCF Cohesion FundCOIN Costs of inactionDEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs UKDG Directorate-GeneralEAA Environment Agency AustriaEEA European Environment AgencyEionet European Environmental Ination and Observation NetworkERDF European Regional Development FundESIF European Structural and Investment FundsETC/CCA European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and AdaptationFOEN Federal Office for the Environment CHIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeJRC Joint Research CentreMRE Monitoring, reporting and uationNAP National adaptation planNAS National adaptation strategyNRA National risk assessmentNRC National Reference Centres for Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation NRC-CCIVAPROVIA Global Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and AdaptationAbbreviationsAbbreviations7National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018SREX IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change AdaptationUKCIP UK Climate Impacts ProgrammeUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeNational climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 20188cutive summaryOverviewThis report provides the first systematic review of national climate change impact, vulnerability and risk CCIV assessments across Europe. It is based on ination and reflections reported from and authorised by EEA member countries on assessments that are multi-sectoral and cover the whole country. The purpose of the report is to share experiences and knowledge and to highlight approaches and practical solutions that countries have used to produce and present their assessments. The report does not attempt to uate or rank existing CCIV assessments; neither does it suggest that there is a one-size-fits-all approach for national CCIV assessments. Rather, it has identified lessons learned and makes suggestions for further developing CCIV assessments in the future. The intention is to provide a source of inspiration and knowledge for countries that will support the planning and implementation of adaptation to climate change in Europe.The main ination source of this report is a survey that was completed by 24 out of 33 EEA member countries. For most countries, the responding organisations were the authorities that lead the development of national adaptation policies, and in many countries additional experts were involved. Additional ination was gathered from the country pages of Climate-ADAPT the European Climate Adaptation Plat and other public sources of ination. Some countries with CCIV assessments are not covered in the main part of this report, because they did not respond to the survey.To ensure a consistent interpretation of the survey questions and to improve the comparability of the responses across countries, the project team partially pre-filled the survey, conducted consistency checks, and discussed remaining questions with the relevant national experts. Afterwards, the project team carried out both quantitative and qualitative analyses of the survey responses. A survey-based approach also has its limitations. Most importantly, the survey responses reflect the knowledge and views of only a limited number of experts from each country. Furthermore, there is considerable variability across countries in answering the free-text questions. CCIV assessments supporting national adaptation policy developmentAccording to ination made available through Climate-ADAPT, almost all EEA member countries have adopted a national adaptation strategy NAS, and over half have adopted a national adaptation plan NAP. Furthermore, the preparatory work for the survey showed that almost all EEA member countries have conducted at least one national CCIV assessment.Most national CCIV assessments were initiated by the lead organisation for the development of national adaptation policy; some were initiated by other public bodies or by scientific institutions. Most national CCIV assessments were conducted by universities and research organisations, but a large variety of other public and private institutions were involved.According to the survey, national adaptation policy development has been the major reason for national CCIV assessments. The policy demand can be in the of direct commissioning, or more generally as an explicit or implicit need for ination that becomes evident during the preparation or revision of a national adaptation strategy or national adaptation plan.Multi-sectoral and sectoral national CCIV assessments have been the most important ination sources for the development of national adaptation policies. In addition, virtually all countries have also used stakeholder and expert opinions, as well as ination from international and/or European CCIV assessments. Many countries have cutive summarycutive summary9National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018conducted national research programmes on CCIV in order to support adaptation policy development.Assessment approachesA variety of approaches and s has been used to produce national CCIV assessments. These include reviews of existing literature, summaries of the results of national CCIV research programmes, extensive model-based studies and stakeholder consultations. This diversity reflects the specific national circumstances, such as the purpose of the assessment, the availability of relevant CCIV ination and the institutional context.The thematic coverage of national CCIV assessments has been broad, with up to 19 different sectors and thematic areas examined in one assessment. The thematic areas covered most frequently were water and agriculture, followed by biodiversity, energy, forestry and human health.Common challenges during assessments have included gaps in data, the integration of quantitative and qualitative ination, and the comparison of diverse climatic risks across sectors.About two thirds of the reported CCIV assessments have identified, and in some cases uated, concrete adaptation measures. This has broadened the scope of CCIV assessments and made them relevant in multiple stages of the adaptation policy cycle. These assessments have thus made connections to a policy development that not only focuses on climate impacts and vulnerabilities, but also pays attention to other societal objectives, such as the conservation of biodiversity or disaster risk reduction.Presentation of assessment resultsAlmost all reported CCIV assessments presented the main results for the whole country. More than half of the assessments also included ination at the sub-national level, which facilitates the identification of regional adaptation priorities.Many assessments have used monetised metrics e.g. expressed in euros or other common metrics e.g. low, medium and high risk for displaying assessment results in a comparable . Only very few assessments have communicated uncertainties in a systematic manner across all sectors.The results of most CCIV assessments were communicated through several dissemination channels, including various types of interactive events. To date social media and webinars have rarely been used.Lessons learned and suggestions for future developmentsNational CCIV assessments provide a general overview and can assist in setting thematic and regional priorities, but sub-national and local ination is required for developing targeted adaptation measures.Equal attention should be given to the assessment process, including an iterative dialogue between stakeholders and assessors, as is given to developing the content. Careful planning can avoid time and resource constraints during the assessment and facilitate uptake of the assessment results by policymakers.The choice of assessment approaches and s needs to take into account the particular ination needs and the purpose of the CCIV assessment. The different needs and purposes will maintain diversity in CCIV assessments.The survey responses suggest that it is important to use current climate vulnerabilities as a starting point of the analysis, and that climate change should be considered jointly with other drivers and policy concerns. The increasing focus on adaptation actions in CCIV assessments further emphasises the need for proactive stakeholder engagement that can provide access to relevant knowledge, ensure buy-in and facilitate mutual learning. The experiences of countries highlight that stakeholder engagement is most effective when stakeholders are included throughout all stages of the assessment.All respondents in the survey emphasised the need for further CCIV ination, and all countries intend to update their knowledge base regarding CCIV. Future plans comprise multi-sectoral CCIV assessments as well as targeted sector-specific or thematic assessments. Based on the experiences reported, an updating cycle of approximately 5 years appears appropriate for national CCIV assessments, as it allows cutive summary10 National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018for the incorporation of relevant developments in the knowledge base as well as in policy.Additional CCIV ination needs have been identified for sectors already covered as well as for new thematic areas, such as international cross-border impacts. There is growing recognition that a country can be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change occurring abroad, e.g. through cross-border water flows, trade relationships or climate-induced migration.There is potential for improving the links to national risk assessments for security and disaster risk reduction, e.g. by using common assessment approaches, scenarios or metrics. According to the survey responses, the following areas could be further developed in future CCIV assessments1. Non-climatic factors that influence the development of exposure and vulnerability should be systematically explored, e.g. using demographic projections and other relevant socio-economic scenarios. Improved consideration of social vulnerability factors would also lead to a better understanding of the social justice implications of climate change, as some population groups are more strongly affected than others.2. Cross-sectoral interactions and international cross-border impacts are playing an important role in determining overall vulnerability and therefore deserve attention.3. Common metrics for impacts and vulnerabilities can fac