EEA Report No 8/2017Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015ISSN 1977-8449EEA Report No 8/2017Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015European Environment AgencyKongens Nytorv 61050 Copenhagen KDenmarkTel. 45 33 36 71 00Web eea.europa.euEnquiries eea.europa.eu/enquiriesCover design EEACover photo Marco VenezianoLeft photo Marco VenezianoRight photo EEALayout EEA/Pia SchmidtLegal noticeThe contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the ination contained in this report. Copyright notice European Environment Agency, 2017Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.More ination on the European Union is available on the Internet http//europa.eu.Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2017ISBN 978-92-9213-861-5ISSN 1977-8449doi10.2800/1217803ContentsAnalysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015ContentsAcknowledgements 4Foreword 51 GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014 61.1 Summary last year 61.3 Largest emission changes by sector at EU level 81.4 Largest Member State contributions to the EU perance .101.5 Weather conditions and road transport drive emissions up .112 GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015 . 142.1 Summary last 25 years .142.3 Largest emission changes by sector at EU level 182.4 EU policies and GHG emission reductions .222.5 Largest Member State contributions to the positive EU perance 272.6 The economy and the link to GHG emissions .272.7 The weather, the climate and GHG emissions 322.8 Early indications of 2016 emissions 354AcknowledgementsAnalysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by the European Environment Agency EEA. The project manager and author was Ricardo Fernandez EEA, with , comments and support from Blaz Kurnik, Herdis Gudbrandsdottir, Magdalena Jozwicka, Francois Dejean, Claire Qoul EEA and er EEA colleague Spyridoula Ntemiri. The author also acknowledges from the European Commissions Directorate-General for Climate Action DG CLIMA. The EEA acknowledges the team-work of the people and main institutions involved in compiling the EU GHG inventory, including the EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation ETC/ACM, DG CLIMA, Eurostat, and the Joint Research Centre JRC, without whom this report would not have been possible. 5ForewordAnalysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015ForewordAnalysis of key drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU This paper analyses the major factors that accounted for decreased and/or increased greenhouse gas GHG emissions excluding land use, land use changes and forestry LULUCF in the EU-28. It consists of two 1The EU GHG inventory comprises the direct sum of the national inventories compiled by the EU Member States making up the EU-28. In addition, the European Union, its Member States and Iceland have agreed to jointly fulfil and report on their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments for the second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper the analysis is based on the EU-28 reporting under the UNFCCC i.e. Convention reporting. The main institutions involved in compiling the EU GHG inventory are the Member States, the European Commission Directorate-General Climate Action DG CLIMA, the European Environment Agency EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation ETC/ACM, Eurostat, and the Joint Research Centre JRC. More ination on the EU GHG inventory, including the GHG data viewer can be found on the EEAs website at www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2017.parts the first part looks at the year 2015 compared to 2014 and the second part looks at the whole period between 1990 and 2015, as well as an analysis of the effect of the economy and the weather on GHG emissions. The data is based on the EUs GHG inventory submission to UNFCCC in 2017 1. 6GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 20151 GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 20141.1 Summary last yearTotal GHG emissions in the EU excluding LULUCF increased for the first time since 2010 by 23 million tonnes, or 0.5 compared to 2014 2, to reach 4 310 Mt CO2equivalent in 2015. This modest increase in emissions came along with an increase in gross domestic product GDP of 2.2 , the largest increase since the economic crisis started in the second half of 2008. This resulted in a lower emissions-intensity of GDP in the EU in 2015 and contributed to a further decoupling of GHG emissions and economic growth. The increase in emissions was triggered by the higher heat demand by households and services due to slightly colder winter conditions in Europe, as well as by higher road transport demand, which increased for the second year in a row. These sectors are not covered by the EU emissions trading system ETS, and explains why overall net emissions increased in spite of the reduction in EU ETS emissions the same year. ETS emissions from stationary installations decreased by 0.7 , whereas emissions from the non-trading sectors increased by 1.4 in 2015.Total energy consumption increased overall, with fossil emissions increasing, particularly for natural gas and crude oil. The consumption and emissions of solid fuels decreased in 2015 for the third consecutive year. The sustained increase in renewables, particularly biomass, wind and solar, offset otherwise higher emissions in 2015. Hydro due to a low rainfall and nuclear electricity production declined in 2015. In spite of the 2015 increase in emissions, there were further improvements in the carbon intensity of the EU energy system because of the increased shares of renewables and gas relative to coal in the fuel mix. The energy intensity of GDP also improved as total energy consumption increased less rapidly than economic growth. The improvement in energy intensity was largely driven by lower energy-transation losses and better energy efficiency of the overall EU economy.Spain, Italy and the Netherlands accounted for the largest increases in GHG emissions in the EU in 2015. The UK recorded the largest reduction. 1.2 Overall results at EU levelTotal GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, increased for the first time since 2010 to reach 4310 Mt CO2eq. In 2015, and in line with the European Environment Agencys EEA Approximated GHG inventory published last year 3, EU emissions were 0.5 above 2014 levels 0.6 including international aviation, equivalent to a net increase of 23 million tonnes of CO2equivalents. Compared to 1990, total GHG emissions were 23.7 lower in 2015 22.1 lower when including international aviation. Figure 1.1 breaks down the 0.5 overall increase in GHG emissions into several factors using the Kaya decomposition identity 4. Of these, the higher GDP per capita played the biggest role dark blue section in bringing emissions up. Population also contributed to the increase in emissions light blue section. The lower energy intensity of GDP was the largest factor yellow section counterbalancing the increase in emissions, as the economy required less primary energy per unit of GDP. The carbon intensity of energy also improved in 2015 red section, which reflects the lower use of 2 The current analysis focuses on GHG emission trends in the EU-28 and is based on Member States GHG inventories reported to the EU by 8 May 2017. These inventories underpin the EUs GHG inventory submission to UNFCCC of end May. 3 Approximated EU GHG inventory proxy GHG estimates for 2015, www.eea.europa.eu/publications/approximated-eu-ghg-inventory-2015 4 The chosen factors are an extension of the Kaya identity. The annual decomposition analysis shown in this paper is based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index LMDI . The equation for the aggregated decomposition analysis isy [ln]GHG x1 [ln]POP x2 [ln]GDP/POP x3 [ln]PEC/GDP x4 [ln]GHG_en/PEC x5 [ln]GHG/GHG_en, where y GHG total GHG emissions; x1 POP population population effect; x2 GDP/POP GDP per capita affluence effect; x3 PEC/GDP primary energy intensity of the economy primary energy intensity effect; x4 GHG_en/PEC energy-related GHG emissions in primary energy consumption carbon intensity effect; x5 GHG/GHG_en total GHG emissions in energy-related GHG emissions non-combustion effect. The non-combustion effect refers to how energy-related emissions combustion and fugitives behave compared to non-energy related emissions industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors.GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 20147Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015carbon intensive fuels like coal and an increase in the consumption of natural gas and renewables. The non-combustion factor green section shows that emissions from non-energy sectors pered better i.e. emissions actually decreased than energy-related emissions in 2015. Overall, the four main findings from the decomposition analysis of Figure 1.1 are i. The increase of 0.5 in total GHG emissions came along with an increase in GDP of 2.2 in 2015. The growth in GDP in 2015 was the largest since the economic crisis started in the second half of 2008. This resulted in a lower emissions-intensity of GDP in the EU in 2015 and contributed to a further decoupling of GHG emissions and economic growth. Figure 1.1 Decomposition of the annual change in total GHG emissions in the EU-28 in 2015The EU population increased by almost 2 million in 2015.ii. The increase in total GHG emissions was almost fully-driven by emission increases in the energy sector, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors as well as in the transport sector. As explained below this was due to higher heat demand from the slightly colder winter conditions in Europe in 2015 and by the increase in the consumption of diesel in road transportation mostly passenger, but also freight. The weight of non-combustion emissions relative to energy-related emissions decreased in 2015. Agriculture emissions increased modestly, whereas those from industrial processes and waste management decreased in 2015.Note The explanatory factors should not be seen as independent of each other. The bar segments show the changes associated with each factor alone, holding the respective other factors constant. Source EEA. 0.5– 2– 2– 1– 10112232014-2015Non-combustion effectCarbon intensity of energyEnergy intensity of GDPGDP per capitaPopulationTotal GHG3 000 0003 500 0004 000 0004 500 0005 000 0005 500 0006 000 0001990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014Total EU-28 GHG emissions, excludingLULUCF, 1990-2015 ktCO2eq. GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 20148 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015iii. The lower carbon intensity of energy was a factor counterbalancing otherwise higher emissions in 2015. This is in spite of a decline in hydro-electricity and lower nuclear production compared to 2014. The lower carbon intensity is by and large accounted for by a higher relative-contribution from renewable energy sources mostly biomass, wind and solar as well as by an increase in the share of natural gas relative to coal in the fuel mix. According to Eurostat, the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption normalised to even out the annual variability in hydro and wind production reached 16.7 in 2015, up from 16.1 the year before. Thus, a less carbon-intensive fuel-mix led to an overall improvement of the carbon intensity of energy production and use in the EU in 2015.iv. The decrease in primary energy intensity was the largest offsetting factor to higher GHG emissions. Total energy consumption increased but GDP increased faster, leading to an improvement in the energy intensity of the EU economy as a whole. Final energy increased almost twice as fast as primary energy in 2015. The improvement in energy intensity was largely driven by lower energy-transation losses and better energy efficiency of the overall EU economy, with more energy available for final consumption by the economic sectors per unit of primary energy. 1.3 Largest emission changes by sector at EU levelWe now look deeper into the sectors accounting for the largest increase in emissions. Table 1.1 shows that the largest increases occurred in buildings, including residential, commercial and institutional, and in road transportation.Heat consumption in the EU can be supplied via distributed systems from thermal stations reported under public electricity and heat production and/or as a process of direct combustion in buildings reported under residential and commercial/institutional. The consumption and emissions of the residential and commercial sectors reported in GHG inventories capture by and large the bulk of heat consumption and emissions from fossil fuels. Emissions in these sectors increased by 4.9 in 2015 yet 2015 had the second lowest heat consumption in the EU. This is because 2014 recorded the lowest ever heat consumption and the highest average temperatures in Europe during the previous 25 years. There was subsequently an increased demand for heating in 2015 compared to 2014. It is worth noting that emissions from public electricity and heat production decreased in 2015 even though the production of both heat and electricity actually increased that year. The main reason was lower use of coal and increased use of gas and biomass, which led to an improvement of the carbon intensity of the power sector and resulted in lower emissions in spite of increased output. The question is whether the trigger for such increase in output was higher heat consumption or electricity, or both. GHG inventories provide evidence of the fuel and the emissions output from electricity and heat production, but without distinguishing between emissions from heat and from electricity. According to energy statistics reported to Eurostat, there was an increase in both heat output and electricity output Source EEA.Note The table shows only those sectors where emissions have increased or decreased by at least 3 million tonnes of CO2equivalent between 2014 and 2015. The table reflects the emission reductions according to the EUs geographic