Approximated greenhouse gas emissionsRecent trends and projections in EUgreenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas GHG emissions in the European Union EUincreased by 0.6 in 2017, according to preliminary estimatesfrom Member States, mostly because of road transport. Withoutfurther robust and ambitious policies and measures, thosecurrently in place at national level will be insufficient to achieve thereduction targets set for 2030.The latest projections available from EU Member States fall short of the 40 domestic reduction target for 2030, with an EU-wide reduction in GHG emissionsof only 30 below 1990 levels based on existing mitigation measures, and of 32 when additional planned mitigation measures are considered.GHG emission projections of just six Member States are below their respective2030 targets under the EU Effort Sharing legislation, which covers sectors such asroad transport, buildings and agriculture all outside the EU Emissions Tradingsystem ETS.EU GHG emissions increased by 0.6 in 2017, according to preliminaryestimates from Member States. This increase was mainly driven by higher oilconsumption from road transport.Despite this increase, the EU remains on track to achieve its 20 GHGreduction commitment by 2020 compared with 1990. In fact, EU GHG emissionsin 2017 remained below the 2020 target at 21.9 below the 1990 level.In the EU ETS, emissions remained almost stable in 2017 0.2 increase andthe surplus of emission allowances declined for the third consecutive year.By the end of 2018, Member States must their first draft National Energyand Climate Plans NECPs. These plans must include climate and energyobjectives and policies designed to set the EU on the right track towards achievingits 2030 goals, taking longer-term objectives into account.Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions 1This briefing summarises the key results of recent EEA analyses and assessments of progresstowards climate targets in the EU. The work is based on Member States’ preliminary estimates oftheir GHG emissions in 2017, their latest GHG projections for 2030 and data reported under theEU Emissions Trading System ETS. Detailed results are available in the reports ApproximatedEuropean Union greenhouse gas inventory Proxy GHG emission estimates for 2017, Trends andprojections in Europe 2018 – Tracking progress towards climate targets and Trends andprojections in the EU ETS 2018 – the ETS in numbers.Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions2National projections for 2030 show insufficientreductions to achieve the EU’s 40 reduction target.The EU has adopted a binding target of at least a 40 reduction in domestic greenhouse gasGHG emissions compared with 1990 levels by 2030. This includes binding annual GHGemission reduction targets for EU Member States from 2021 to 2030 for the Effort Sharing sectors,i.e. those not covered by the EU ETS, such as road transport, buildings and agriculture.According to Member States projections reported in 2017 and 2018, an EU-wide reduction in GHGemissions by 2030 could reach levels 30 below those of 1990, based on existing mitigationmeasures. The figure could become 32 when additional planned mitigation measures areconsidered. However, these projected reductions fall short of the 40 domestic reduction targetfor 2030. In fact, Member States projections show slower GHG emission reductions after 2020,both under the EU ETS and the Effort Sharing, instead of faster ones as would be necessary.Only six Member States Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden and Slovakia project thatemissions from their Effort Sharing sectors will be strictly below their respective 2030 EffortSharing targets. Achieving these targets will require new and focused efforts from all MemberStates to address emissions in the Effort Sharing sectors and ultimately enable the EU to reach itslong-term decarbonisation goals.The package of legislative texts on climate and energy agreed at the EU level in recent months, aswell as further pieces of legislation still under discussion, will have to be rapidly implemented byMember States to set the EU on the right track for achieving its 2030 goals. By the end of 2018,Member States will their first draft National Energy and Climate Plans NECPs, whichmust include ambitious climate and energy objectives, and robust policies for 2021-2030. Theseplans will pave the way for reaching longer-term decarbonisation objectives.Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions 3Rising energy consumption increased EU GHG emissionsin 2017, slowing progress towards EU 2020 GHG targetThe 10-year period between 2004 and 2014 saw an almost continuous decline in EU GHGemissions. Since then, emissions have remained more or less stable. By 2016, the EU hadachieved a GHG emission reduction of 22.4 below 1990 levels and preliminary data reveal thatemissions in 2017 increased by 0.6 compared with 2016. This brings the EU-wide reduction to alevel 21.9 below that of 1990. Total emissions in 2017 were estimated to be 4 466 million tonnesof carbon dioxide equivalent Mt COe. Current projections still indicate the 20 reduction targetset for 2020 will be met but by a narrower margin. The EU therefore remains on track to meet its2020 target.The 0.6 increase in emissions in 2017 was not as high as the 2.5 growth in gross domesticproduct GDP across the EU the emission intensity of GDP in the EU continued to decrease,indicating a further decoupling of GHG emissions from economic growth.In the EU ETS, emissions from stationary installations increased by 0.2 in 2017. Over halfwaythrough the third trading period, power generation continues to drive emission reductions in the EUETS. Emission trends for industrial installations have been more variable, reflecting the economicdevelopments observed in Europe over the last three trading periods. Aviation emissions continueto grow year on year. The overall surplus of emission allowances continued to decline for the thirdconsecutive year as a result of lower volumes of allowances being allocated for free reflecting theplanned annual reduction of the ETS cap and the limited use of international offsets thatinstallations can use for compliance. The surplus is now equivalent to around 1.6 billionallowances.2017 was the third year in a row in which emissions in sectors covered by the Effort Sharingincreased, driven in particular by oil consumption in the road transportation sector. 22 MemberStates all except Belgium, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Malta and Poland had their emissionsbelow their annual GHG emission targets set for 2016 under the Effort Sharing Decision. Thisnumber is estimated to have decreased to 18 Member States in 2017 with GHG emissions inEffort-Sharing sectors in Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania,Malta and Poland anticipated to be above those countries’ Effort Sharing targets in 2017.2Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions4Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emission trends, projections and targets in the EUExplore chart interactively199019952000200520102015202020252030203520402045205001000200030004000500060002020 GHG target -20GHG target -402050 goal -802050 goal -95MilliontonnesCO2 equivalentMtCO2eHistoric GHG emissionsGHG emissions proxyProjections with existing measuresProjections with additional measures2030 Target -78.6 Mt CO2eq per year2050 target -157 Mt co2 eq/year -802050 target -157 Mt co2 eq/year -95Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions 5Greenhouse gas emissions increased in more than half ofthe EU Member States in 2017The largest absolute growth in emissions occurred in Spain 14.2 Mt CO2e, reflecting increasedconsumption of coal and natural gas in the power sector and a substantial decrease inhydroelectricity production. A large growth in emissions also occurred in Poland 11.2 Mt CO2eand France 8.0 Mt CO2e. In Poland, the largest increase in emissions was observed in thetransport sector. In France, nuclear energy consumption fell while coal consumption grew strongly.In relative terms, the largest increase in emissions compared with 2016 took place in Malta13.1, followed by Portugal 6.5 and Estonia 5.2. In Malta, the increase was mainly due tohigher electricity production from the new power-gas station and the reduction of electricityimports. In Portugal, lower hydroelectricity production led to a higher use of coal and gas. InEstonia, the increase in emissions was mainly due to the higher electricity production from oilshale and higher transport demand. In terms of absolute changes in GHG emissions, the largest decrease occurred in the UnitedKingdom 12.4 Mt COe, significantly more than in any other Member State. The largest reductionwas due to a shift from coal and natural gas to renewable energies in electricity generation. A largedecrease in emissions was also observed in Germany 4.7 Mt COe, where a higher level ofelectricity generation from wind energy replaced hard coal, bringing emissions down. Coal powerplants were also decommissioned or mothballed. In contrast, other sectors saw increasingemissions, which were most pronounced in industry and transport.In relative terms, the largest decline in emissions compared with 2016 took place in Denmark5.3 , followed by Finland 4.6 and the United Kingdom 2.6 . In Denmark, the higherconsumption of renewable energy from biomass, wind and biogas led to a significant decline in theuse of coal in power plants. In Finland, consumption of fossil fuels continued to decrease whilerenewable energy use increased, in particular biofuels in transport. 22Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions6Figure 2. Change in Member State GHG emissions, 2016-2017Explore chart interactivelyMillion tonnes CO2 equivalent Countries Percentage change of GHG emissions-10 0 10 20 30SpainPolandFranc ePortugalHung Greec eRoma Aus triaBulgariaEs toniaSlov a Cz ec Lithua MaltaCy prusCroatiaLux e Latv iaSlov e IrelandSwed ItalyBelgiumDenm FinlandNetherl Germa United EU-28SpainPolandFrancePortugalHungaryGreeceRomaniaAustriaBulgariaEstoniaSlovakiaCzech RepublicLithuaniaMaltaCyprusCroatiaLuxembourgLatviaSloveniaIrelandSwedenItalyBelgiumDenmarkFinlandNetherlandsGermanyUnited KingdomEU-28-5 0 5 10 15Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions 7Urgent action is required to combat increasing emissionsin the transport sectorGHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in the EU grew by 20.0 Mt COe in 2017, anincrease of 0.6 compared with 2016. This was mainly because of an increase in emissions inthe transport and manufacturing sectors 14.4 Mt COe and 8.5 Mt COe, respectively, whichwas partly compensated by a small decline in emissions from energy industries -2.8 Mt COe.The energy sector was able to reduce its emissions despite a third consecutive increase in fossilfuel consumption because of the increasing role played by oil, gas and renewable energy sources— and the decreasing share of coal ‑ in producing electricity and heat in the EU.Emissions from the transport sector have risen in recent years. For the first time since 2010, whenmonitoring started under current EU legislation, the average CO emissions of new cars sold in theEU rose in 2017, according to provisional data. New legislation in the areas of heavy-duty vehicleemissions and real driving emissions are expected to help reverse the current upwards trend intransport emissions.Emissions from EU industrial sectors other than the energy sector increased by 4.6 Mt COe1.2 in 2017, compared with 2016. The largest emission increases occurred in the mineralproduction industry and the chemical industry.Agriculture emissions increased by 1.7 Mt COe 0.4 , mainly because of emissions fromdigestion in ruminant animals enteric fermentation and agricultural soils. There was a smalldecrease in emissions due to manure management.Emissions from waste continue the downward trend seen in previous years, with a reduction of 2.5Mt COe 1.8 due, in the main, to a reduction in emissions from solid waste disposal.22 222222Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions8Figure 3. Change in GHG emissions by sector in the EU, 2016-2017a. EEA. National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas MonitoringMechanismb. EEA. Approximated greenhouse gas emissionsData sourcesExplore chart interactivelyMillion tonnes CO2 equivalent-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30Total incl. international aviationWasteAgricultureIndustrial Processes EnergyIn the land use, land use change and forestry LULUCF sector, afforestation and moderateharvest rates contributed to an expected annual carbon sink in 2017 before the application ofaccounting rules. However, the figure was slightly lower than the average annual sink reported inGHG inventories since 2000. The decline in the LULUCF sink in 2017, as in several previousyears, is attributed to land conversion, especially due to deforestation, and the conversion oforganic soils to cropland and of land to settlements.Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions 9Published on 26 Oct 2018IdentifiersBriefing no. 12/2018Title Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions Linguistic version Media/Volume Catalogue number ISBN ISSN DOIEN PDF/Volume_01HTMLTH-AM-18-014-EN-NTH-AM-18-014-EN-Q978-92-9213-995-7 2467-31962467-319610.2800/2157410.2800/991141Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation Approximated greenhouse gas emissions Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions10