ISSN 1977-8449 Trends and projections in Europe 2017 Tracking progress towards Europes climate and energy targets EEA Report No 17/2017Trends and projections in Europe 2017 Tracking progress towards Europes climate and energy targets EEA Report No 17/2017Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the ination contained in this report. Copyright notice European Environment Agency, 2017 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. More ination on the European Union is available on the Internet http//europa.eu. Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 ISBN 978-92-9213-923-0 ISSN 1977-8449 doi10.2800/791520 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel. 45 33 36 71 00 Web eea.europa.eu Enquiries eea.europa.eu/enquiries Cover design EEA Cover photo Tamas Parkanyi, ImaginAIR /EEA Left photo Roberto Tavazzani, My City /EEA Right photo Kevin Coellen, My City /EEA Layout EEA/Rosendahls a/s3 Contents Trends and projections in Europe 2017 Contents Abbreviations 7 cutive summary 9 1 Overall progress towards the European Unions 20-20-20 climate and energy targets 14 1.1 Progress of the European Union towards its 20-20-20 climate and energy targets .15 1.2 Progress towards the European Unions mid- and long-term climateand energy objectives15 1.3 Towards an integrated governance of climate and energy policies in the European Union.17 1.4 Progress of Member States towards national 2020 climate and energy objectives .18 2 Progress of the European Union towards its greenhouse gas emission targets . 20 2.1 Progress in reducing total greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union 20 2.2 The European Unions policy framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions .22 2.3 Emission trends under the European Union Emissions Trading System .22 2.4 Emission trends under the Effort Sharing Decision 24 2.5 Emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry .25 3 Progress towards Member States greenhouse gas emission targets 27 3.1 Current progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision 27 3.2 Projected progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision 28 3.3 Cumulative gaps for 2013-2020 and use of the flexibilities provided under the Effort Sharing Decision.30 4 Progress of the European Union towards its renewable energy targets . 33 4.1 Current progress on renewable energy .33 4.2 Projected progress in the deployment of renewable energy sources35 4.3 The development of renewable energy for electricity, heating and cooling, and transport.36 5 Progress towards Member States renewable energy targets . 38 5.1 Current progress towards renewable energy source targets 38 5.2 Progress towards the objectives of national action plans .38 5.3 Deployment of renewable energy between 2005 and 2015 40Contents 4 Trends and projections in Europe 2017 5.4 Progress towards renewable energy source targets in the transport sector 41 5.5 Regional cooperation and statistical transfers 42 6 Progress of the European Union towards its 2020 energy efficiency targets 43 6.1 Current progress in reducing energy consumption43 6.2 Projected progress towards the European Unions 2020 energy efficiency target.45 6.3 The 2030 targets on energy efficiency in the context of Energy Union 45 7 Progress towards Member States energy efficiency targets 46 7.1 Progress towards national primary energy consumption targets 46 7.2 Trends towards national final energy consumption targets 47 7.3 Aggregated ambition level of Member States national 2020 targets 48 8 Trends and projections in Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey 50 8.1 Greenhouse gas emissions 50 8.2 Renewable energy .51 8.3 Energy efficiency 52 References . 54 Annex 1 Progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets data and ology 61 A1.1 Reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions 61 A1.2 Data sources for greenhouse gas emissions .61 A1.3 Tracking progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision 74 A1.4 Use of flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision .77 A1.5 Annual and cumulative gaps between emissions and Effort Sharing Decision targets 77 Annex 2 Progress towards renewable energy targets data and ology . 81 A2.1 Reporting requirements related to renewable energy .81 A2.2 Data sources related to renewable energy deployment 81 A2.3 Tracking progress towards renewable energy targets .82 Annex 3 Progress towards energy efficiency targets data and ology . 86 A3.1 Reporting requirements for energy efficiency/energy consumption .86 A3.2 Data sources for energy consumption .86 A3.3 Tracking progress towards energy efficiency targets .86 Annex 4 Domestic climate and energy targets in the European Union 88 A4.1 The 20-20-20 targets for 2020 89 A4.2 The 2030 climate and energy framework 89 A4.3 National targets and compliance under the Effort Sharing Decision .90 A4.4 Renewable energy targets for 2020 92 A4.5 Energy efficiency targets for 2020 .93Contents 5 Trends and projections in Europe 2017 A4.6 Overview of 2020 national climate and energy targets 94 Annex 5 International climate commitments in Europe 99 A5.1 The UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris agreement 99 A5.2 Progress of the European Union under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 2013-2020.100 A5.3 ological details related to targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the UNFCCC 100 A5.4 Land use, land use change and forestry activities under the Kyoto Protocol .102 A5.5 Emissions from aviation .103Trends and projections in Europe 2017 VI List of figures and tables Figures Figure 1.1 EU progress towards 2020 climate and energy targets . 16 Figure 2.1 Greenhouse gas emission trends, projections and targets in the EU 21 Figure 2.2 Effort Sharing Decision ESD, Emissions Trading System ETS, land use, land-use change and forestry LULUCF and aviation emission trends and projections, 1990-2035 23 Figure 2.3 Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections under the scope of the EU ETS, 1990-2030 . 24 Figure 2.4 Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections under the scope of the Effort Sharing Decision, 1990-2030 25 Figure 3.1 Current progress of Member States towards their Effort Sharing Decision ESD targets 28 Figure 3.2 Projected progress of Member States towards their 2020 Effort Sharing Decision ESD targets . 29 Figure 3.3 Projected cumulative gaps with regard to Effort Sharing Decision targets, 2013-2020 30 Figure 4.1 Gross final energy consumption from renewable and non-renewable energy sources, 2005-2016 . 34 Figure 4.2 Share of energy from renewable energy sources RES in the EUs gross final energy consumption, 2005-2050 36 Figure 4.3 Shares of energy use from renewable sources by sector in the EU . 37 Figure 5.1 National shares of energy from renewable sources in relation to indicative Renewable Energy Directive RED trajectories 39 Figure 5.2 National shares of energy from renewable sources in relation to trajectories from national action plans . 40 Figure 5.3 Gross final energy consumption total and from renewable sources and shares of energy from renewable sources in the Member States, 2005-2015. 41 Figure 6.1 Primary and final energy consumption in the EU, 2005-2016, 2020 and 2030 targets . 45 Figure 7.1 Primary energy consumption and linear trajectory levels, 2015 and 2016 . 48 Figure 7.2 Overall ambition level of national targets for primary and final energy consumption by 2020 50 Figure 8.1 Total greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey, 1990-2030. 52 Figure 8.2 Primary energy consumption in Iceland, Norway and Turkey, 1990-2015 . 54 Tables Table 1.1 Progress of Member States towards 2020 climate and energy targets . 19 Table 3.1 Minimum conditions for achieving the Effort Sharing Decision budget for the period 2013-2020 . 32 Table 8.1 Iceland and Norways progress on renewable energy . 53 List of figures and tables7 Abbreviations Trends and projections in Europe 2017 AAU Assigned amount unit AEA Annual emission allocation AR4 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC CER Certified emission reduction CM Cropland management CO 2Carbon dioxide COP 21 Paris climate conference EEA European Environment Agency EED Energy Efficiency Directive Eionet European environment ination and observation network ETC/ACM European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation ERU Emission reduction unit ESD Effort Sharing Decision EU European Union EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading System F-gas Fluorinated gas FM Forest management GDP Gross domestic product GHG Greenhouse gas GM Grazing-land management GWP Global warming potential ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AbbreviationsAbbreviations 8 Trends and projections in Europe 2017 LDC Least developed country LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry MMR Monitoring Mechanism Regulation Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NEEAP National energy efficiency action plan NF 3Nitrogen trifluoride NREAP National renewable energy action plan QA/QC Quality assurance and quality control QELRC Quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment RED Renewable Energy Directive RES Renewable energy source RES-E Renewable energy source use in electricity RES-H/C Renewable energy source use in heating and cooling RES-T Renewable energy source use in transport RMU Removal units RV Revegetation SIDS Small island developing state UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WAM With additional measures WEM With existing measures9 cutive summary Trends and projections in Europe 2017 Progress of the European Union and its Member States towards 2020 climate and energy targets The 2017 edition of the European Environment Agency EEA Trends and projections in Europe report confirms that the European Union EU is well on track to meet its climate and energy targets for 2020. Official data for 2015 show that greenhouse gas GHG emissions have already decreased beyond the 20 reduction target and energy use from renewable sources is steadily growing and getting closer to the 20 target. Energy consumption levels, while currently considered to be on track to meet the EU energy efficiency target, have increased slightly meaning greater efforts are needed to reach this target see Figure ES.1. Policies are playing an important role in driving the overall EU trends observed since 2005, in particular through a sustained increase in renewable energy use. According to preliminary estimates for 2016, greenhouse gas emissions show only a modest decrease compared with 2015, when GHG emissions increased for the first time since 2010. The reduction in 2016 took place despite an increase in transport emissions. Primary energy consumption increased in 2016, for the second consecutive year. This increase follows a large drop in consumption in 2014, due to an exceptionally warm winter that resulted in a particularly low energy demand for heating. Insufficient progress has been achieved so far towards the 10 target for renewables set for the transport sector for 2020. The report uses official data for 2015 to look at the progress of Member States towards their individual objectives for 2020 see Figure ES.2. Here progress is mixed while the EU is on track, the situation differs between Member States. 21 Member States are on track to meet their 2020 GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision, which cover national emissions from sectors outside the EU Emissions Trading System ETS. All except Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta project that their GHG emissions will be kept or reduced below their national targets in 2020, with the current set of policies and measures in place. Malta did not reach its 2015 ESD target. 25 Member States are on track to reach their 2020 renewable energy targets. All except France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands used more renewable energy than the minimum level indicated in the Renewable Energy Directive for 2015-2016. 23 Member States all except Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Germany and the Netherlands are on track to meet their 2020 energy efficiency targets on the basis of their consumption of primary energy in 2015. However, the overall ambition level of Member States is still insufficient the sum of the 28 national targets for 2020 primary energy consumption does not match the reduction target determined at the EU level. A total of 17 Member States are on track to deliver on their national targets in all three areas. This is an improvement on 2014, when the figure was 16. However, preliminary data indicate an overall deterioration of the situation in 2016 compared with 2015, in particular when it comes to progress towards national energy efficiency targets. EU progress towards 2030 climate and energy targets Although the EU remains on track to achieve its 2020 targets, current efforts need to be stepped up to achieve more ambitious longer term objectives. For example, while projections show further decreases in EU GHG emissions beyond 2020, Member States project that the pace of these reductions will slow down. The reductions currently planned fall short of the 40 reduction target for 2030. Good progress towards the energy efficiency targets took place between 2005 and 2014, but the pace has slowed in recent years, increasing the uncertainty around the EU meeting its 2020 energy efficiency cutive summarycutive summary 10 Trends and projections in Europe 2017 objectives and, even more so, the target for 2030. Meeting the 2030 target for energy efficiency in the EU will require Member States to strengthen their efforts to keep energy consumption in check, particularly if current economic growth continues, and be steadfast in implementing relevant policies and measures in an adequate and timely manner. Maintaining the current pace of renewable energy deployment across Europe would enable the EU to achieve the target of at least 27 of final consumption of energy from renewable sources by 2030. However, this may not happen without additional efforts to overcome a number of difficulties - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10 20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Renewable energy target 20 Primary energy consumption target - 13 - 20 vs baseline Greenhouse gas target - 20 Share of energy from renewable sources in final energy consumption Share of energy from renewable sources in final energy consumption proxy