ISSN 1977-8449 EEA Report No 4/2015 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 Tracking progress towards Europes climate and energy targets EEA Report No 4/2015EEA Report No 4/2015 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 Tracking progress towards Europes climate and energy targetsLegal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the ination contained in this report. Copyright notice European Environment Agency, 2015 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. More ination on the European Union is available on the Internet http//europa.eu. Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2015 ISBN 978-92-9213-698-7 ISSN 1977-8449 doi10.2800/985234 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel. 45 33 36 71 00 Web eea.europa.eu Enquiries eea.europa.eu/enquiries Cover design EEA Cover photo bjdlzx Right photo EEA Left photo EEA Layout EEA/Rosendahls3 Contents Trends and projections in Europe 2015 Contents Acknowledgements 7 cutive summary 8 1.1 Background 13 1.2 Data .13 1 Introduction . 13 1.3 Approach to assessing progress 14 1.4 Report structure 14 2 Overall progress towards the EUs 20‑20‑20 climate and energy targets . 16 2.1 EU progress towards its 20-20-20 climate and energy targets 17 2.2 Progress towards EU mid- and long-term climate and energy objectives .18 2.3 Progress towards national 2020 climate and energy objectives .19 2.4 Main drivers of GHG emission trends 22 3 Progress towards GHG emission targets 24 3.1 EU progress towards GHG emission targets25 3.2 Trends and projections in GHG emissions, by sector .27 3.3 Emission trends 2013–2020 under the EU ETS .29 3.4 Progress towards targets 2013–2020 under the ESD .31 3.5 Emission and removals from LULUCF 36 3.6 GHG emission trends and projections in other EEA member countries 37 4 Progress towards renewable energy targets . 39 4.1 EU progress towards its RES targets .39 4.2 Relative trends in final energy consumption and renewable energy use 41 4.3 Trends in RES shares by sector 43 4.4 Member State progress towards national RES targets .45 5 Progress towards energy efficiency targets. 48 5.1 EU progress towards its energy efficiency targets 49 5.2 EU policies for 2020 energy efficiency targets .50 5.3 National 2020 energy efficiency targets vs the EU target 52 5.4 Progress towards national 2020 energy efficiency targets 53 Acronyms, units and terms . 56 References . 61 Annex 1 Climate and energy targets in the EU . 67 A1.1 International commitments of EU and EEA countries under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol .67 A1.2 First commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2008–2012 .67Contents 4 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 A1.3 Second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2013–2020 .68 A1.4 EU domestic climate and energy targets for 2020 71 A1.5 Overview of 2020 national climate and energy targets 76 A1.6 2030 climate and energy targets .79 Annex 2 Data sources for GHG emissions, energy consumption and targets . 80 A2.1 Legal reporting requirements for GHG data 80 A2.2 Historic GHG emission data .80 A2.3 Projected GHG emissions .81 A2.4 Energy consumption data 92 Annex 3 Detailed assessment results progress under the ESD 93 A3.1 Tracking progress towards targets under the ESD .93 A3.2 Current progress towards targets under the ESD .93 A3.3 Projected progress towards ESD targets 95 A3.4 2005 ESD base-year emissions 96 Annex 4 Detailed assessment results progress towards renewable energy targets . 97 Annex 5 Detailed assessment results progress towards energy efficiency targets 99 A5.1 Progress achieved between 2005 and 2013 additional ination .995 List of figures and tables Trends and projections in Europe 2015 List of figures and tables Figures Figure ES.1 EU progress towards 2020 climate and energy targets 8 Figure ES.2 Progress of Member States towards 2020 climate and energy targets 9 Figure ES.3 EU greenhouse gas emission trends, projections and reduction targets 11 Figure 2.1 EU progress towards 2020 climate and energy targets . 18 Figure 2.2 Contributions of drivers to GHG emission trends, 2005–2013 . 23 Figure 2.3 Heating degree days in Europe, 2005–2013 23 Figure 3.1 GHG emission trends, projections and targets in the EU, 1990–2050 . 26 Figure 3.2 GHG emission trends and projections by sector, 1990–2030 . 28 Figure 3.3 Trends and projections of EU ETS emissions stationary installations, ETS cap and available credits, 2005–2020 30 Figure 3.4 EU GHG emission trends and projections in sectors covered by the ESD. 31 Figure 3.5 Total GHG emission trends and projections in other EEA member countries, 1990–2030 . 38 Figure 4.1 Trends and targets in the share of renewable energy sources in EU energy consumption, 2005–2050 40 Figure 4.2 Gross final energy consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy sources 2005–2013, and approximated RES share, 2014 . 41 Figure 4.3 Gross final energy consumption total and from RES and RES shares in Member States, 2005–2013 42 Figure 4.4 Renewable energy shares by sector in the EU 43 Figure 4.5 Historic contributions from renewable energy technologies . 44 Figure 4.6 Member States RES shares 2013–2014, in relation to the indicative RED target 2013–2014 and 2013 NREAP target 47 Figure 5.1 Trends in EUs primary and final energy consumption 2005–2014 and targets, 2020 and 2030 . 50 Figure 5.2 Overall ambition level of national targets for primary and final energy consumption by 2020 52 Figure 5.3 Primary energy consumption 2013–2014 and 2020 national targets, relative to 2005 levels 53 Figure 5.4 Distance between 2013 and 2014 primary energy consumption and linear target path . 55 Figure A1.1 National 2013 and 2020 GHG emission limits under the ESD, relative to 2005 emissions levels 73 Figure A1.2 National targets for renewable energies for 2020 . 74 Figure A1.3 National indicative primary and final energy consumption targets . 76 Tables Table 2.1 Progress of Member States towards 2020 climate and energy targets . 20 Table 3.1 Key EU policies supporting national achievements under the ESD . 29 Table 3.2 Historic 2013–2014 and projected 2015–2020 annual absolute gaps to annual ESD targets 32 Table 3.3 Minimum conditions expected for achieving the ESD budget for the period 2013 to 2020 . 34 Table 3.4 Historic 2013–2014 and projected 2015–2020 cumulated absolute gaps to annual ESD targets . 35 Table A1.1 Emission reduction commitments by EU and EEA countries for the Kyoto Protocols second commitment period, 2013–2020 69 Table A1.2 Main national climate and energy targets . 77 Table A1.3 Technical details concerning EU climate-related targets . 78 Table A2.1 Projected emissions from Member States and Norway, WEM and WAM . 82 Table A3.1 Current progress towards 2013 and 2014 ESD targets . 94List of figures and tables 6 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 Table A3.2 Projected progress towards 2020 ESD targets . 95 Table A3.3 ESD base-year emissions . 96 Table A4.1 Current progress towards renewable energy targets 97 Table A4.2 RES shares per sector, 2013 and 2014 . 98 Table A5.1 Member States progress towards their 2020 energy efficiency targets . 1007 Acknowledgements Trends and projections in Europe 2015 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the European Environment Agency EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation ETC/ACM. The ETC/ACM is a consortium of European institutes assisting the EEA in its support to European Union EU policy in the field of air pollution and climate change mitigation. The overall coordination of the report was carried out by Franois Dejean EEA and the ETC/ACM task manager, Sabine Gores ko-Institut. The authors were, in alphabetical order, Anca-Diana Barbu, Franois Dejean and Mihai Tomescu from the EEA; Hannes Bttcher, Johanna Cludius, Hannah Frster, Benjamin Greiner, Sabine Gores, Sean Healy, Katja Schumacher and Anne Siemons from ko-Institut ETC/ACM partner, Germany, and Nele Renders from Vito ETC/ACM partner, Belgium. Additional EEA support for the preparation of this report was provided by John van Aardenne, Andreas Barkman, Ricardo Fernandez, Magdalena Jozwicka, Brendan Killeen, Paul McAleavey, Patrick McMullan, Spyridoula Ntemiri, David Simoens and Melanie Sporer. The EEA would like to thank the national focal points and experts of the EEA member countries for their cooperation during the preparation of this report. The EEA also acknowledges the comments received on the draft report from the EEA member countries and the European Commission. These comments were included in the report as far as was practically feasible.Trends and projections in Europe 2015 8 cutive summary cutive summary EU and Member States progress towards 2020 climate and energy targets The 2015 edition of the annual European Environment Agency EEA Trends and projections report confirms that the EU is well on track to meet its climate and energy targets set for 2020 Figure ES.1. The report highlights the positive impact of key drivers, in particular Steady roll-out of renewable energy; Decrease in the energy consumption in most EU Member States over the last decade. The positive effects of these drivers on emission trends outweighed factors generally responsible for emission increases, such as Demographic and economic growth; Return to more CO 2 -intensive coal in some countries. Figure ES.1 EU progress towards 2020 climate and energy targets Note The renewable energy target corresponds to a 20 share of renewable energy sources in EUs final energy consumption in comparison with a 9 level in 2005. The energy efficiency target corresponds to an absolute energy consumption 20 below a business-as-usual scenario, which is equivalent to a 13 reduction from 2005 levels. The greenhouse gas emission target corresponds to a 20 reduction compared to 1990 levels the reduction achieved in 2005 was 7. The dashed and dotted lines represent emission projections, based on Member States data ted in 2015. Source EEA, 2015.                         
cutive summary 9 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 On track Not on track 2013 primary energy consumption 2013 GHG emissions and 2013–2020 projections under the Effort Sharing Decision 2013 share of renewables in final energy consumption Luxembourg Greece Hungary Sweden Bulgaria Germany Czech Republic Portugal Lithuania Slovenia United Kingdom Cyprus Finland Estonia Spain Latvia Netherlands Ireland Austria Croatia Malta Poland Denmark France Slovakia Italy Belgium Romania Figure ES.2 Progress of Member States towards 2020 climate and energy targets Note The Effort Sharing Decision sets individual binding annual targets for GHG emissions not covered by the EU ETS for all Member States for the period from 2013 to 2020. The Renewable Energy Directive sets individual binding targets for the 2020 share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption, as well as indicative trajectories up until 2020. Under the Energy Efficiency Directive, Member States set their own target on energy consumption for 2020.See further ological details in Table 2.1. Source EEA, 2015.cutive summary 10 Trends and projections in Europe 2015 The report goes beyond these headline numbers and also looks at the progress of Member States towards their individual climate and energy objectives for 2020. Here the picture is nuanced while the EU is on track, the situation differs significantly between Member States. 24 are on track to meet their GHG targets all except Austria, Belgium, Ireland and Luxembourg; 20 are on track to achieve their renewable energy targets all except Denmark, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom; 20 are on track to achieve their energy efficiency targets all except Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden; 13 Member States are on track to deliver on their national targets in all three areas. This is an improvement on 2014, where 9 Member States were on track to deliver on their national targets in all three areas. Most Member States that were on track to their national target in 2014 remain on track in 2015 Figure ES.2. EU progress towards 2030 climate and energy targets In 2014, the European Council agreed on the 2030 climate and energy policy framework for the EU and endorsed new targets on greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency for 2030. In 2015, the EU adopted an Energy Union Strategy to ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy and achieve its climate and energy goals for 2030. The report shows that while projections show further decreases in EU GHG emissions beyond 2020, Member States project that the pace of these reductions will slow down. Planned reductions will only bring EU emissions between 27 and 30 below 1990 levels by 2030, which falls short of the 40 reduction target for 2030 Figure ES.2. However, the recently agreed re of the EU ETS and new policy proposals still being discussed in the EU such as a post-2020 Effort Sharing Decision, measures to enhance energy efficiency and measures in the transport sector have not yet been taken into account in projections. Discussions are also ongoing concerning the inclusion of land use and forestry into the 2030 greenhouse gas mitigation framework. Sustaining the current pace of growth in renewable energy sources could enable the EU to achieve its target of a minimum 27 share by 2030. However, this will be challenging because market barriers persist, while support measures for renewable energy have been scaled back in various countries. Furthermore, as economies pick up across Europe, further efforts will be necessary to ensure that energy consumption continues to decrease in order to reach the objective of reducing Europes energy use by at least 27 by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. Outlook on greenhouse gas emission trends for 2050 The EU recently adopted new objectives for 2030, both domestically through its 2030 climate and energy policy framework and internationally through its intended contribution to the UNFCCC, as part of a global effort to limit an average temperature increase below 2 C compared to pre-industrial levels. These objectives are also consistent with a cost-effective pathway towards long term domestic emission reductions of 80 by 2050. Although the EU and its Member States