The Future of Rail Opportunities for energy and the environment IN COLLABORATION WITHThe Future of Rail Opportunities for energy and the environment INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENC Y The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, af fordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t Akos rsek International Union for Road-Rail Combined Transport [UIRR]; Alison Von Ketelhodt Sasol; Andrea Staino Alstom Transport; Andreas Hoffrichter Michigan State University; Antonio Berrios Villalba ADIF; Aurlien Bigo SNCF; Carole Escolan Zeno UIC; Chris Nash University of Leeds; Ferenc Zsabo Ministry for Innovation and Technology of Hungary; Francisco Furtado International Transport Forum [ITF]; Fulai Sheng United Nations [UN]; Gerald Kowalski Alstom; Girish Pillai Ministry of Railways, India; Glenn Sondak IEA; Jan Havenga Stellenbosch University; John Preston University of Southampton; Laurent Dauby UITP; Liam Lukey UIC; Mark Schipper Energy Ination Administration; Matteo Prussi Joint Research Centre; Matteo Craglia University of Cambridge; Prashant Mishra NHSRCL, India; Puneet Kamboj Brookings India; Ralph Luijt NS; Rudolph Sperlich Swiss Federal Transport Office; Sarbojit Pal Clean Energy Ministerial Secretariat; Shri Prakash TERI, India; Sian Prout European Commission; Tor Kartevold Equinor and Willie Pierce Irish Rail. The report benefited from the “Global Rail and Energy Workshop” organised by the IEA and the UIC on 24 September 2018 in Paris and attended by stakeholders from train manufacturers Alstom; rail services operators FS [Italian State Railways], JSC RZD [Russian Railways], Korail, SNCF [Socit nationale des chemins de fer franais], SNCB/NMBS [National Railway Company of IEA 2019. All rights reserved.The Future of Rail IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Opportunities for energy and the environment Page | 6 Belgium], Irish Rail, Crossrail Benelux NV, NS; energy companies Total; industry associations UIC, UNIFE [Union des Industries Ferroviaires Europennes], UITP, UIRR [International Union for Road-Rail Combined Transport], Rail Delivery Group; other industries TK Blue Agency, WienCont; governmental bodies Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Swiss Federal Transport Office, European Commission, Indian Ministry of Railways, MoHUA, NHSRCL, European Parliament, RijksWaterStaat; intergovernmental organisations IEA, ITF, CEM [Clean Energy Ministerial]; non-governmental and non-profit organisations Paris Process on Mobility and Climate, TERI, Brookings India; academic and research institutions University of Leeds, University of Southampton, Stellenbosch University, Imperial College of London, Institut du Dveloppement Durable et des Relations Internationales, Institut fr Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung; and a consultancy firm Cleantech Group. The agenda, presentations and the summary of the workshop are available at www.iea.org/workshops/global-rail-and-energy-workshop.html. Financial support from the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Programme, particularly through the contribution of the United Kingdom, supported the engagement with India for the purpose of this report. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The Future of Rail Opportunities for energy and the environment Page | 7 Table of contents cutive summary . 15 Introduction 19 Purpose and scope 19 Structure of the report 20 Classification of rail transport services 20 Key parameters 22 Data sources 22 References . 23 1. Status of rail transport . 25 Highlights . 25 Introduction . 26 Rail transport networks . 26 Urban rail network . 28 Conventional rail network for passenger and freight services 29 High-speed rail network. 31 Rail transport activity 33 Passenger rail . 33 What shapes rail transport 43 Passenger rail . 43 Freight rail 45 Rail transport and the energy sector . 47 Energy demand from rail transport . 47 Energy intensity of rail transport services . 51 GHG emissions and local pollutants 54 Well-to-wheel GHG emissions in rail transport . 54 Additional emissions Looking at rail from a life-cycle perspective . 57 Conclusions 62 References . 63 2. Outlook for Rail in the Base Scenario 69 Highlights . 69 Introduction . 70 Rail network developments . 72 Rail transport activity 74 Passenger rail . 74 Freight rail 78 Implications for energy demand . 80 Implications for GHG emissions and local pollutants 86 Direct CO 2emissions 86 Well-to-wheel GHG emissions . 86 IEA 2019. All rights reserved.The Future of Rail IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Opportunities for energy and the environment Page | 8 Emissions of local pollutants 88 Investment requirements 89 Conclusions 90 References . 91 3. High Rail Scenario Unlocking the Benefits of Rail . 97 Highlights . 97 Introduction . 98 Motivations for increasing the role of rail transport . 98 Trends in the High Rail Scenario 101 Main assumptions 101 Rail network developments in the High Rail Scenario . 102 Rail transport activity 104 Passenger rail in the High Rail Scenario . 104 Freight rail in the High Rail Scenario 108 Implications for energy demand . 109 Implications for GHG emissions and local pollutants 111 Direct CO 2emissions in the High Rail Scenario 111 Well-to-wheel GHG emissions . 112 Investment requirements in the High Rail Scenario 114 Policy opportunities to promote rail . 116 Passenger rail . 118 Freight rail 122 Conclusions 126 References . 127 4. Focus on India 131 Highlights . 131 Introduction . 132 Status of rail transport . 134 Passenger rail . 135 Freight rail 138 Rail transport energy demand and emissions . 140 Energy demand from rail transport . 140 GHG emissions and local pollutants 142 Outlook for rail to 2050 . 143 Outlook for rail in the Base Scenario . 145 Outlook for rail in the High Rail Scenario . 152 Conclusions 160 References . 161 Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure 165 Glossary 169 IEA 2019. All rights reserved.IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The Future of Rail Opportunities for energy and the environment Page | 9 List of figures Figure In-1 Classification of various railway services and infrastructure . 21 Figure 1.1 Track length by region and network type, 1995-2016 . 26 Figure 1.2 Eurasian freight rail corridors. 27 Figure 1.3 Extension of urban rail networks metro and light rail, 2000-2017 left and opening of new metro systems, 1970-2017 right . 28 Figure 1.4 Average annual metro trips per urban resident, 2013-2017 left; and metro network utilisation versus high-speed rail, 2017 right 29 Figure 1.5 Conventional rail infrastructure track development, 1995-2016 30 Figure 1.6 Non-urban rail activity per kilometre of track, passenger and freight, 2000 and 2016 30 Figure 1.7 High-speed rail track length by key region, 2010 and 2017. 31 Figure 1.8 Passenger train activity for high-speed rail and conventional rail per track-kilometre, 2016 . 32 Figure 1.9 Passenger rail activity, 1995-2016 left and passenger-kilometres per capita, 2016 right . 33 Figure 1.10 Passenger activity by rail type 35 Figure 1.11 Urban rail activity, 1995-2017 left and shares of urban rail in total passenger rail, 2017 right . 36 Figure 1.12 Modal shares of urban transport activity in passenger-kilometres left and as a share of urban rail in total urban passenger activity by country right, 2017 . 37 Figure 1.13 Non-urban transport activity by mode, 2000-2017 left and the share of high-speed rail in non-urban rail, 2000-2016 right 38 Figure 1.14 Conventional rail average passenger trip distance and train occupancy, 2016 38 Figure 1.15 High-speed rail activity for key regions, 2000-2016 39 Figure 1.16 Freight rail activity in selected countries, 1995-2016 left and share of passenger and freight trains in total train-kilometres, 2016 right . 41 Figure 1.17 Average freight transport distance versus country surface area left and train loading versus average transport distance right, 2016 . 42 Figure 1.18 Freight rail activity and share in total surface goods transport . 43 Figure 1.19 Shares of materials transported by freight railways worldwide, 2016 46 Figure 1.20 Final energy use in transport by region and mode, 2000-17 . 47 Figure 1.21 Energy intensity of different transport modes, 2017 48 Figure 1.22 Final energy demand in rail transport by region and type, 2000-17 . 48 Figure 1.23 Final energy demand in rail transport by region and type, 2000 and 2017 49 Figure 1.24 Passenger and freight rail transport activity by fuel type left and share of activity on electric trains right, 1995-2016 50 Figure 1.25 Share of electrified rail tracks, 1995-2015 . 51 Figure 1.26 Specific energy consumption of passenger left and freight right trains as a function of train size and the share of electric activity, 2016 52 Figure 1.27 Average train occupancy across different passenger rail service types in key regions, 2016 53 Figure 1.28 Energy intensities of passenger left and freight right rail, 2016 . 54 Figure 1.29 Average WTW carbon intensities for diesel powertrains, compared with electric powertrains using various primary sources . 56 Figure 1.30 Concrete, steel and iron use for one kilometre of conventional rail line double track 57 Figure 1.31 Annualised life-cycle GHG emissions, GHG savings and time needed to compensate upfront emissions for a new high-speed rail line . 59 IEA 2019. All rights reserved.