New energy vehicle technology trends 新能源汽车的 技术发展趋势 预致汽车咨询有限公司和 毕马威中国联合出品 In association with AutoForesight 2018 毕马威企业咨询 中国 有限公司 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 毕马威国际合作组织 “毕马威国际” 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。 2018 KPMG Advisory China Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative “KPMG International”, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The emergence and sustainability of new energy vehicles NEVs require adjustments in old vehicle plats, which will take time for customers to accept. Additionally, the development of auto technology will drive NEVs to become a major trend. Original equipment manufacturers OEMs need to figure out how to balance NEV manufacturing costs with technological innovation in order to lead a new round of automotive technology development and market share expansion. NEVs mainly refer to pure battery electric vehicles BEV, plug-in electric vehicles PHEV and fuel cell vehicles FCEVs. Most EVs use nickel-metal hydride Ni-MH batteries and lithium- ion batteries as power sources. Ni-MH batteries are durable, affordable, create less pollution, and can be mass produced. In addition, they are relatively cheaper to manufacture, while the technology behind it is more mature. As a result, large Japanese OEMs tend to use them for their hybrid models. However, Ni-MH batteries have lower energy density than lithium- ion batteries, and are therefore not suitable for pure BEVs. Lithium-ion batteries, on the other hand, are high voltage and have high energy density. Under the same weight conditions, the capacity of lithium-ion batteries is 1.6 times higher although only part of their full potential are used. Lithium-ion batteries are more common in NEVs. The cathode materials used in lithium-ion batteries for most international NEV models are lithium manganese oxide LMO and ternary NCM/NCA, while Chinese NEVs mostly adopt lithium iron phosphate LFP batteries. As at the end of September 2017 , China has launched 4,981 EVs, with 3,147 or 63 percent using LFP batteries, followed by ternary 19.7 percent and LMO 11.1 percent. 1 To improve battery energy density, many Chinese car 1. ‘Catalog of Vehicle Purchase Tax mptions on New Energy Vehicles 1-12 Batch’, Ministry of Industry cooperate to jointly develop new plats; or trans an existing internal combustion engine vehicle ICEV plat. Transing an existing ICEV plat can lead to better cost control. However, there are limitations as the heavy battery pack requires a specific type of design. Since an ICEV plat was not designed to accommodate for a battery pack, there is limited space for its inclusion. This results in lower battery capacity and therefore, shorter mileages. The battery pack in new EV plats can be installed on the vehicle floor to increase battery capacity. This allows its weight to be evenly distributed across the axle, while the vehicle would also enjoy a lower centre of gravity and more internal compartment space. However, the development of new plats requires large financial investments. If sales are limited initially, it will take time for companies to break even, which could hamper their financial perances. This is why models produced using a new EV plat are generally more expensive. Some manufacturers would team up to jointly develop and share new EV plats in order to reduce costs . However, many OEMs such as Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors and Mercedes-Benz still develop new plats of their own. NEV plat development strategies 03 New energy vehicle technology trends 2018 毕马威企业咨询 中国 有限公司 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 毕马威国际合作组织 “毕马威国际” 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。 2018 KPMG Advisory China Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative “KPMG International”, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. BEVs 其他供应商正在从磷酸铁锂转向基于三元的电池。根据国家工业信 息部发展汽车电池工业的计划，国家规划的锂电池能量密度将达到 300- 350wh / kg，而电池行业则保守估计高达 250wh / kg。除非有重大技术 突破， 否则锂电池性能的改善将取决于材料优化。 按此假设， 到 2025 年， 锂电池的电能密度预计可以达到 320wh / kg。 与此同时，锂电池的成本迅速下降，从 2011 年的每千瓦时 3000 元以 上下降到 2015 年的 1500 元 / 千瓦时。市场参与者预计，到 2020 年， 锂电池价格可能会降到 1000 元 / 千瓦时以下。正极材料、负极材料、 隔膜和电解质有机溶剂占电池成本的比例分别为 30、10、25 及 15。 2由于其他部件的成本难以压缩，电池价格主要由正极材料决定。 永磁同步电机（包括无刷直流电机）、交流异步电机和交流感应电机是主 流电机类型，其中最常见的是永磁同步电机。本地电动车型的额定功率大 多在 20kw 到 35kw 之间。比亚迪的插入式电动车秦的额定功率达 40kw， 是当地车型中最高的。特斯拉 Model S 等跑车车型可以达到 100kw。全球 领先的电动车电机功率密度在 3kw / kg 和 6kw / kg 之间 。 3 2. 摘自 ‘Promoting Automotive Power Battery Industry Development Action Plan’, Ministry of Industry Ination Technology MIIT, 2017 年 9 月 34. 上海预致汽车咨询研究08 新能源汽车的技术发展趋势