pGlobal Carbon BudgetPublished on 5 December 20182018PowerPoint version 1.0 released 5 December 2018AcknowledgementsThe work presented here has been possible thanks to the enormous observational and modelling efforts of the institutions and networks belowAtmospheric CO2 datasets NOAA/ESRL Dlugokencky and Tans 2018 Scripps Keeling et al. 1976Fossil Fuels and IndustryCDIAC Boden et al. 2017Andrew, 2018UNFCCC, 2018BP, 2018Consumption Emissions Peters et al. 2011GTAP Narayanan et al. 2015 Land-Use ChangeHoughton and Nassikas 2017Hansis et al. 2015GFED4 van der Werf et al. 2017FAO-FRA and FAOSTATHYDE Klein Goldewijk et al. 2017LUH2 Hurtt et al. in prepAtmospheric inversionsCarbonTracker Europe van der Laan-Luijkx et al. 2017Jena CarboScope Rdenbeck et al. 2003CAMS Chlier et al. 2005MIROC Saeki and Patra, 2017Land modelsCABLE-POP | CLASS-CTEM | CLM5.0BGC | DLEM | ISAM | JSBACH | JULES | LPJ-GUESS | LPJ | LPX-Bern | OCN | ORCHIDEE-Trunk | ORCHIDEE-CNP | SDGVM | SURFEXv8 | VISIT CRU Harris et al. 2014 JRA-55Ocean modelsCCSM-BEC | MICOM-HAMOCC NorESM-OC | MITgem-REcoM2 | MPIOM-HAMOCC | NEMO-PISCES CNRM | NEMO-PISCES IPSL | NEMO-PlankTOM5 pCO2-based ocean flux productsJena CarboScope Rdenbeck et al. 2014Landschtzer et al. 2016SOCATv6 Bakker et al. 2016Full references provided in Le Qur et al 2018C Le Qur UK | RM Andrew Norway | P Friedlingstein UK | S Sitch UK | J Hauck Germany J Pongratz Germany | GP Peters Norway | RB Jackson USA | JG Canadell AustraliaAlmut Arneth Germany | Vivek K. Arora Canada | Leticia Barbero USA | Ana Bastos Germany | Laurent Bopp France | Frdric Chlier France | Louise P. Chini USA | Philippe Ciais France | Scott C. Doney USA | Thanos Gkritzalis Belgium | Daniel S. Goll USA | Ian Harris UK | Vanessa Haverd Australia | Forrest M. Hoffman USA | Mario Hoppema Germany | Richard A. Houghton USA | George Hurtt USA | Tatiana Ilyina Germany | Atul K. Jain USA | Truls Johannessen Norway | Chris D. Jones UK | Etsushi Kato Japan | Ralph F. Keeling USA | Kees Klein Goldewijk The Netherlands | Jan Ivar Korsbakken Norway | Peter Landschtzer Germany | Nathalie Lefvre France | Sebastian LienertSwitzerland | Zhu Liu UK NOAA-ESRL; Le Qur et al 2018; Ciais et al. 2013; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 Emissionsfrom fossil fuel use and industryGlobal fossil CO2 emissions 36.2 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63 over 1990 Projection for 2018 37.1 2 GtCO2, 2.7 higher than 2017 range 1.8 to 3.7Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Global Fossil CO2 EmissionsUncertainty is 5 for one standard deviation IPCC “likely” rangeGlobal Fossil CO2 EmissionsGlobal fossil CO2 emissions have risen steadily over the last decades.The peak in global emissions is not yet in sight.Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary ; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Emissions Projections for 2018Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 2.7 in 2018 [range 1.8 to 3.7]The global growth is driven by the underlying changes at the country level.Source CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Top emitters Fossil CO2 emissionsThe top four emitters in 2017 covered 58 of global emissionsChina 27, United States 15, EU28 10, India 7Bunker fuels, used for international transport, are 3.2 of global emissions.Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 0.7 of global emissions.Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Top emitters Fossil CO2 Emissions per capitaCountries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstancesSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Top emitters Fossil CO2 Emission IntensityEmission intensity emission per unit economic output generally declines over time.In many countries, these declines are insufficient to overcome economic growth.GDP is measured in purchasing power parity PPP terms in 2010 US dollars.Source CDIAC; IEA 2017 GDP to 2015, IMF 2018 growth rates to 2017; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Alternative rankings of countriesThe responsibility of individual countries depends on perspective.Bars indicate fossil CO2 emissions, population, and GDP.GDP Gross Domestic Product in Market Exchange Rates MER and Purchasing Power Parity PPPSource CDIAC; United Nations; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emissions growth 2016–2017Emissions in the China, India, and Turkey increased most in 2017Emissions in USA declined, while all other countries combined increasedFigure shows the top four countries contributing to emissions changes in 2017Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emissions growth 2018 projectionEmissions in China, India, and the US are expected to increase in 2018, while emissionsin the EU28 are expected to decline, and all other countries combined will most likely increaseOur projection considers China, USA, EU28, and India independently, and the Others as an aggregated “Rest of World”Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Breakdown of global fossil CO2 emissions by countryEmissions in OECD countries have increased by 5 since 1990,while those in non-OECD countries have more than doubledSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Historical cumulative fossil CO2 emissions by countryCumulative fossil CO2 emissions were distributed 1870–2017USA 25, EU28 22, China 13, Russia 7, Japan 4 and India 3Cumulative emissions 1990–2017 were distributed China 20, USA 20, EU28 14, Russia 6, India 5, Japan 4‘All others’ includes all other countries along with bunker fuels and statistical differencesSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emissions by continentAsia dominates global fossil CO2 emissions, while emissions in North America are of similar size to those in Europe, and the Middle East is growing rapidly.Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emissions by continent per capitaOceania and North America have the highest per capita emissions, while the Middle East has recently overtaken Europe. Africa has by far the lowest emissions per capita.The global average was 4.8 tonnes per capita in 2017.Source CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Historical cumulative emissions by continentCumulative fossil CO2 emissions 1870–2017. North America and Europe have contributed the most cumulative emissions, but Asia is growing fastThe figure excludes bunker fuels and statistical differencesSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emission intensityGlobal CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from financial crises.Emission intensity has steadily declined but not sufficiently to offset economic growth.Economic activity is measured in purchasing power parity PPP terms in 2010 US dollars.Source CDIAC; Peters et al 2012; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Kaya decompositionThe Kaya decomposition illustrates that relative decoupling of economic growth from CO2emissions is driven by improved energy intensity Energy/GWPGWP Gross World Product economic activityEnergy is Primary Energy from BP statistics using the substitution accounting Source Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 emission intensityThe 10 largest economies have a wide range of emission intensity of economic activityEmission intensity Fossil CO2 emissions divided by Gross Domestic Product GDPSource Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 Emissions per capitaThe 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per capitaEmission per capita Fossil CO2 emissions divided by populationSource Global Carbon Budget 2018Emissions 2017Region/Country Per capita Total Growth 2016–17tCO2 per person GtCO2 GtCO2 Global with bunkers 4.8 36.15 100 0.478 0.0OECD CountriesOECD 9.8 12.67 35.0 0.061 0.8USA 16.2 5.27 14.6 -0.041 -0.5OECD Europe 7.1 3.46 9.6 0.034 1.3Japan 9.5 1.21 3.3 0.001 0.3South Korea 12.1 0.62 1.7 0.021 3.8Canada 15.6 0.57 1.6 0.015 2.9Non-OECD CountriesNon-OECD 3.5 22.08 61.1 0.388 2.1China 7.0 9.84 27.2 0.134 1.7India 1.8 2.47 6.8 0.089 4.0Russia 11.8 1.69 4.7 0.025 1.8Iran 8.3 0.67 1.9 0.035 5.7Saudi Arabia 19.3 0.64 1.8 0.003 0.8International BunkersBunkers andstatistical differences - 1.41 3.9 0.029 2.1Key statisticsSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 Emissions by sourcefrom fossil fuel use and industryFossil CO2 Emissions by sourceShare of global fossil CO2 emissions in 2017coal 40, oil 35, gas 20, cement 4, flaring 1, not shownSource CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018Fossil CO2 Emissions by sourceEmissions by category from 2000 to 2017, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2012 to 2017Source CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2017/p