Emissions Gap Report 2018 2018 United Nations Environment Programme November 2018ISBN 978-92-807-3726-4 Job number DEW/2210/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UN Environment would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UN Environment. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, UN Environment, P . O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. 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We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. Maps, photos, and illustrations as specified This document may be cited as UNEP 2018. The Emissions Gap Report 2018. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi A digital copy of this report with supporting appendices is available at http//www.unenvironment.org/emissionsgap Supported byEmissions Gap Report 2018 November 2018V Acknowledgements UN Environment would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steering committee John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, Thelma Krug Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, Harry Lehmann German Environment Agency - UBA, Jian Liu UN Environment, Simon Maxwell Independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Katia Simeonova United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization, Merlyn van Voore UN Environment Chapter 1 Lead authors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Chapter 2 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Kelly Levin World Resources Institute, Glen Peters Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway Contributing authors Gabriel Blanco National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, Jasmin Cantzler Climate Analytics, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Alexandre Koberle Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering, Brazil, Lisa Luna NewClimate Institute, Ritu Mathur The Energy and Resources Institute, India, Marilena Muntean Joint Research Centre, European Commission Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Jorge Villarreal Padilla Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico, David Rich World Resources Institute, Fu Sha National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, China, Heleen van Soest PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Chapter 3 Lead authors Gunnar Luderer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Joeri Rogelj Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China Contributing authors Daniel Huppmann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Chapter 4 Lead authors Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, Niklas Hhne NewClimate Institute Chapter 5 Lead authors Angel Hsu Yale-NUS College/Data- Driven Yale, Oscar Widerberg IVM, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Contributing authors Fatemeh Bakhtiari UNEP DTU Partnership, Sander Chan German Development Institute, Katharina Ltkehermller NewClimate Institute, Mark Roelfsema PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Amy Weinfurter Data-Driven Yale Chapter 6 Lead authors Matthias Kalkuhl Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change and University of Potsdam, Brigitte Knopf Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Kurt Van Dender Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Contributing authors Harro van Asselt University of Eastern Finland, David Klenert Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ruben Lubowski Environmental Defense Fund, Tobias S. Schmidt ETH Zurich, Bjarne Steffen ETH ZurichVI EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Chapter 7 Lead authors Mariana Mazzucato UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Gregor Semieniuk SOAS University of London Contributing authors Kelly Sims Gallagher Tufts University, Anna Geddes ETH Zurich, Ping Huang Tufts University, Friedemann Polzin Utrecht University, Clare Shakya International Institute for Environment and Development, Bjarne Steffen ETH Zurich, Hermann Tribukait Mexico Energy Innovation Funds Reviewers Juan Carlos Altamirano World Resources Institute, Juan Carlos Arredondo, Latin America Regional Climate Initiative, Cline Bak Centre for International Governance Innovation, Maria Belenky Climate Advisers, Pieter Boot PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Sylvain Cail Enerdata, Jasmin Cantzler Climate Analytics, Maria Carvalho London School of Economics, Alex Clark Climate Policy Initiative, Heleen de Coninck Radboud University Nijmegen, Jacqueline Cottrell Green Budget Europe, Steffen Dockweiler Danish Energy Agency, Philip Drost UN Environment, Donovan Escalante Climate Policy Initiative, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy Industrial Strategy, Junichi Fujino National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Ajay Gambhir Imperial College London, Arunabha Ghosh Council on Energy, Environment and Water, Olivia Gippner European Commission DG CLIMA, Jenny Gleed CDP, Vaibhav Gupta Council on Energy, Environment and Water, Thomas Hale Oxford University, Stephen Hall University of Leeds, Stephane Hallegatte World Bank, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Gerd Leipold Humboldt-Viadrina Governance Plat, Karan Mangotra The Energy and Resources Institute, Molly McGregor World Resources Institute, Laura Merrill International Institute for Sustainable Development, Rachel Chi Kiu Mok World Bank, Milimer Morgado The Climate Group, Helen Mountford New Climate Economy, Caetano Penna Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Miles Perry European Commission DG CLIMA, Sumit Prasad Council on Energy, Environment and Water, Jun Erik Rentschler World Bank, Marcia Rocha Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Mark Roelfsema PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, William Scott Smart Prosperity, Jean-Charles Seghers The Climate Group, Malcom Shield C40, Neelam Singh World Resources Institute, Marcel Taal Netherlands government, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Oras Tynkkynen SITRA, Christopher Weber WWF Global Science, Shelagh Whitley Overseas Development Institute, William Wills Laboratrio Interdisciplinar de Meio Ambiente, Harald Winkler University of Cape Town, Peter Wooders International Institute for Sustainable Development, Zhao Xiusheng Tsinghua University Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Editorial team Lars Christiansen UNEP DTU Partnership, Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership, James Arthur Haselip UNEP DTU Partnership Project coordination Lars Christiansen UNEP DTU Partnership, Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership, Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Philip Drost UN Environment, Edoardo Zandri UN Environment External global and national modelling data contributors Joint Research Centre, European Commission Kimon Keramidas and Giacomo Grassi Princeton University Hlne Benveniste Scenario database hosting and support International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Daniel Huppmann and Peter Kolp, and the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium Media and launch support Keith Weller UN Environment, Shari Nijman UN Environment, Philip Drost UN Environment, Roxanna Samii UN Environment, David Cole UN Environment, Mette Annelie Rasmussen UNEP DTU Partnership Design, layout and printing Caren Weeks independent consultant, Joseph und Sebastian cover, Phillip Amunga UN Environment, Kailow A/S Language editing and translation of cutive Summary Strategic Agenda Thanks also to Climate Transparency, Nick Mabey E3G, Niklas Hagelberg UNEP, Jacob Ipsen Hansen UNEP DTU Partnership, Ghita Hjarne UNEP DTU Partnership, Pia Riis Kofoed-Hansen UNEP DTU Partnership, Susanne Konrad UNEP DTU Partnership Thomas Kragh Laursen UNEP DTU Partnership and Lana Schertzer UNEP DTU Partnership Finally, UN Environment would like to thank the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU, the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the Climate Works Foundation, and the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their support to the work of the Emissions Gap ReportVII Contents Acknowledgements. V Contents . VII Glossary IX Acronyms. XII Foreword . XIII cutive summary. XIV Chapter 1. Introduction . 1 Chapter 2. Trends and progress towards the Cancun pledges, NDC targets and peaking of emissions . 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions . 3 2.3 Current global emissions status and trends . 4 2.4 Assessment of current policies are G20 members on track to meet the Cancun pledges for 2020 and NDC targets for 2030, and to peak their emissions 7 Chapter 3. The emissions gap 16 3.1 Introduction 16 3.2 Scenarios considered and updates made . 16 3.3 The emissions gap in 2030 . 19 3.4 Temperature implications of the NDCs 21 3.5 Implications of 2030 emission levels . 21 Chapter 4. Bridging the gap Strengthening NDCs and domestic policies 23 4.1 Introduction 23 4.2 Rationale and context for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions . 23 4.3 Options for Parties to enhance mitigation ambition . 24 4.4 Strengthening domestic policies 25 4.5 The scope for bridging the emissions gap through enhanced ambition and strengthened action . 26 4.6 Summary 28VIII EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – CONTENTS Chapter 5. Bridging the gap The role of non-state and subnational actors 29 5.1 Introduction 29 5.2 Non-state and subnational actors and climate change negotiations from Paris to Katowice 29 5.3 Overview of cooperative initiatives and individual commitments by non-state and subnational actor . 30 5.4 The potential contribution of non-state and subnational actors to enhancing ambition and bridging the 2030 emissions gap 36 5.5 Opportunities for harnessing the potential of NSA climate action to enhance ambition and bridge the emissions gap . 42 Chapter 6. Bridging the gap Fiscal res for the low-carbon transition 43 6.1 Introduction 43 6.2 The current state of fiscal policies and their potential for the low-carbon transition 43 6.3 The political economy of green fiscal re and carbon taxes lessons learned 46 6.4 Addressing the broader fiscal policy framework policy packages, coordination and alignment 51 6.5 Conclusion. 51 Chapter 7. Bridging the gap The role of innovation policy and market creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 7.1 Introduction 52 7.2 Innovation policies 52 7.3 Solar photovoltaic innovation . 56 7.4 Barriers to implementing innovation policy 57 7.5 Conclusion opportunities and challenges . 59 References 60 Bridging the gap Sectors and topics covered in the UN Environment Emissions Gap Reports . 84IX Glossary This glossary is compiled according to the Lead Authors of the Report drawing on glossaries and other resources available on the websites of the following organizations, networks and projects Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and World Resources Institute. Baseline/reference The state against which change is measured. In the context of transation pathways, the term ‘baseline scenarios’ refers to scenarios that are based on the assumption that no mitigation policies or measures will be implemented beyond those that are already in force and/or are legislated or planned to be adopted. Baseline scenarios are not intended to be predictions of the future, but rather counterfactual constructions that can serve to highlight the level of emissions that would occur without further policy effort. Typically, baseline scenarios are then compared to mitigation scenarios that are constructed to meet different goals for greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations or temperature change. The term ‘baseline scenario’ is used interchangeably with ‘reference scenario’ and ‘no policy scenario’. In much of the literature the term is also synonymous with the term ‘business as usual BAU scenario’, although the term ‘BAU’ has fallen out of favour because the idea of ‘business as usual’ in century-long socioeconomic projections is hard to fathom. Bioenergy Energy derived from any of biomass such as recently living organisms or their metabolic by- products Black carbon The substance ed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass, which is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot. It consists of pure carbon in several linked s. Black carbon warms the Earth by absorbing heat in the atmosphere and by reducing albe