新型城镇化背景下中国建筑 节能顶层设计 China energy development trend report 住房和城乡建设部标准定额研究所 2015.1.12 项目信息 项目资助号 G-1307-18660 Grant Number G-1307-18660 项目期 08/1/2013-07/31/2014 Grant period08/1/2013-07/31/2014 所属领域 建筑节能 Sector Building Energy Efficiency 项目概述 见执行摘要 Project Discription See cutive Summary 项目成员 林常青 潘 振 章文杰 杨仕超 刘 刚 林波荣 周 辉 孙 智 马 扬 刘俊跃 毛 凯 马晓雯 Project team Lin Changqing Pan Zhen Zhang Wenjie Yang Shichao Liu Gang Lin Borong Zhou Hui Sun Zhi Ma Yang Liu Junyue Mao Kai Ma Xiaowen 关键词 建筑节能、顶层设计、 总量控制 、 能耗强度 Key WordBuilding energy efficiency、 Top-level design、 Total amount control、Energy intensity 本报告由能源基金会资助。 报告内容不代表能源基金会观点。 This report is funded by Energy Foundation. It does not represent the views of Energy Foundation. I 摘要 中 国建筑领域的节能减排经过 30 余年的发展，取得了长足 的 进步 ，建筑节能成就显著 。建筑节能的法律法规 和 标准逐步健全 、 财税激励力度不断加大、节能技术和产业稳步提升、节能监管和服务能力逐年加强，建筑节能工作已经覆盖了全国各气候区、城镇各类新建及既有建筑，并开始向农村地区拓展，形成了全社会普遍关心、重视、参与建筑节能的氛围。在保持较低建筑 能耗 强度的情况下， 建筑 室内舒适度明显改善、建筑能效明显提高。 然而 ，在中国新型城镇化发展的背景下，建筑业将持续高速发展，建筑存量将快速增加，建筑能耗总量必然快速增长。 2010 年底，全国建筑存量达到465 亿 m2。 若保持当前城镇化速度和建筑节能减排工作模式， 2030 年中国 建筑存量将接近 800 亿 m2，建筑总能耗将达到 14.6 亿 tce。建筑领域的节能减排任务更加艰巨、紧迫 。 为了 减少 能源消耗 、 保护大气环境 ，中国政府已经提出实施能源消费革命 、坚决控制能源消费总量 的要求 ， 2020 年社会一次能源消费总量 将 控制在 48 亿tce。到 2020 年中国单位 GDP 二氧化碳排放量在 2005 年的基础上降低 40～45。中美两国 2014 年 11 月 12 日在北京发表了中美气候变化联合声明，中国已明确宣布“计划 2030 年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值且将努力早日达峰”。 建筑作为能源消费的主要领域之一 ， 必须转变增长模式和 节能方式 ，才能适应国家节能减排的新形势和新要求。本课题基于上述现状，分别从国家能源供应层面和满足建筑运行需要层面，研究了中国未来可能的建筑能源消费 总 量，提出了建筑能耗总量控制目标、实现总量控制的路线，以及相应的政策保障体系和技术保障体系建议。 本课题主要研究成果包括以下四个方面 1．分四种情景分析了未来中国建筑领的能源消费总量，并提出了到 2030年将建筑能耗控制在 1112 亿 tce 的建议。 2．分析了当前建筑节能模式和 建筑 节能标准存在的不足，建议尽快由控制建筑性能性指标的模式转向控制建筑能耗指标的模式，并分别测算 了 未来新建II 建筑和既有建筑能耗强度控制目标，以及低能耗建筑、既有建筑节能改造的长期目标和分阶段目标。 3．测算了建筑面积对建筑能耗总量的影响，并从建筑节能的角度首次提出了未来中国建筑面积总量和人均住宅面积的控制目标建议。 4．围绕着建筑能耗总量控制目标，结合当前存在的障碍和困难，从法律法规、 节能监管 、考核体系、工作机制、建筑节能标准、激励 措施 和能源价格政策、能力建设、宣传教育等方面，系统提出了政策保障体系；从节能技术、 产品、产业、基础研究等方面，提出了 技术保障体系。 III Summary Energy saving and emission reduction in China’s building area has been developing for more than 30 years, which has made much progress for building energy efficiency. The system of building law, regulation and standards has been gradually perfected, the financial incentives are also intensified, the energy efficiency technology and industry are steadily improved, and the energy monitoring, management and service capacity have been strengthened annually. The building energy efficiency work has covered all climate zones, all types of new building and existing building, and extended to the rural areas, which ed an atmosphere that all society cares and gets involved in this industry. The indoor comfort and energy efficiency has been outstandingly improved while maintaining relatively low building energy intensity. However, in the background of China’s New-type Urbanization development, the building industry will continuously develop with high speed, the building stock will rapidly increase, and the total building energy consumption will inevitably face a rapid growth. Till the end of 2010, the building stock in China achieved 46.5 billion m2. If maintaining the current urbanization speed and building energy saving work pattern, the building stock will reach 80 billion m2 with total energy consumption of 1.46 billion tce. The energy saving and emission reduction task of building area is therefore very difficult and urgent. In order to reduce energy consumption and protect the atmospheric environment, Chinese government has made the requirement of implementing energy consuming re and controlling total energy consumption, that the total primary energy consumption of all society will be limited to 4.8 billion tce in 2020, and CO2 emission per GDP will reduce 40-45 in 2020 compared to 2005. China announced it intends to achieve peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and to make its best effort to peak early, according to the joint announcement ‘China-US Joint Announcement on Climate Change’ made by President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama in Beijing on Nov. 12 of 2014. IV As one of the major energy-consumed field, building must change the growth and energy saving mode, so that it can adaptive to the new policy and requirement of energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the above situation, the programme conducts the research of China’s future possible building energy consumption from the two aspects of national energy supply and building operation demand, proposes the building energy consumption control objective and the road-map to realize it, in addition to the corresponding policy system and technical suggestions. The main results of the programme include the following four aspects 1, Analyzing the future total energy consumption of China’s building area in 4 scenarios, and propose to control the building energy consumption to 1.1-1.2 billion tce. 2, Analyzing the current building energy saving pattern and the existing problems of building energy efficiency standards, giving the suggestions to trans the work from control building perance indicator to control energy consumption indicator as soon as possible; Calculating the energy consumption control objectives of the future new building and existing building, as well as the long-term and interim objectives of low energy building and existing building energy-efficient retrofit. 3, Calculating building area’s impact on total energy consumption, for the first time giving the proposal of control objectives of China’s building area and residential area per capita in the future, from the perspective of building energy saving. 4, Based on the building energy consumption control objective, combining the current barriers and difficulties, propose a policy system from the aspects of law and regulation, energy saving monitoring and management, uation mechanism, work pattern, energy efficiency standard, incentives, energy price policy, capacity building, dissemination and education, etc; propose a technology system from the aspects of energy efficient technology, products, industry, fundamental research, and so on. V 目录 一、引言 .............................................................................................................................................. 1 （一）课题研究背景 ................................................................................................ 1 （二）课题亟待解决的问题 .................................................................................... 3 （三）研究目的和主要内容 .................................................................................... 4 二、建筑领域节能减排现状 ........................................................................................................ 5 （一）建筑节能成就 ................................................................................................ 5 （二）建筑能耗现状 ................................................................................................ 7 （三）国际社会的评价 .......................................................................................... 10 三、建筑领域节能减排面临的障碍和瓶颈 ......................................................................... 12 四、我国能源供应及建筑能耗上限预测 .............................................................................. 17 （一）世界能源供应与消费 .................................................................................. 17 （二）我国能源生产与消费现状及预测 .............................................................. 18 （三） 2030 年我国建筑领域能源消费上限分析 ................................................. 20 五、建筑能耗 影响因素的敏感性 ............................................................................................ 22 （一）宏观因素 ...................................................................................................... 22 （二）微观因素 ...................................................................................................... 23 六、建筑领域节能减排中长期规划与实施路线 ................................................................ 27 （一）影响建筑领域能源消费的参数分析 .......................................................... 27 （二）建筑领域节能减排综合情景设定 .............................................................. 44 （三）不同综合情景下的建筑能耗总量估算 ...................................................... 45 （四）建筑领域能源消费占比及目标的初步分析 .............................................. 49 （五）阶段目 标和实施路线分析 .......................................................................... 51 （七）未来建筑领域节能减排实施路线及中长期目标 ...................................... 63 七、建筑领域节能减排效益分析 ............................................................................................ 69 （一）经济效益 ...................................................................................................... 69 （二）社会效益 ...................................................................................................... 69 （三）环境效益 ...................................................................................................... 71 （四）典型节能政策措施的效益 .......................................................................... 71 VI 八、建筑领域节能减排的政策措施保障 .............................................................................. 77 （一）完善法律法规，保证措施落实 .................................................................. 77 （二）加强组织协调，确保步调一致 .................................................................. 77 （三）完善考核体系，强化 能耗监管 .................................................................. 78 （四）创新工作机制，完善节能制度 .................................................................. 79 （五）加大扶持力度，保证激励实效 .................................................................. 81 （六）完善标准机制，加强前瞻性 ...................................................................... 82 （七）推动技术进步，提供充足支撑 .................................................................. 83 （八）提高准入门槛，加强 市场监督 .................................................................. 83 （九）加大基础研究，完善数据统计 .................................................................. 84 （十）开展能力建设，提高服务水平 .................................................................. 85 （十一）做好宣传教育，提高全民节能意识 ...................................................... 86 九、建筑领域节能减排的技术保障 ....................................................................................... 87 （一）建立以建筑能耗量、用能指标为控制目标的建筑用能全过程管理体系.................................................................................................................................. 87 （二）推动建筑节能关键技术研究，加大推广力度 .......................................... 89 （三）推动产业升级，促进产品进步 .................................................................. 90 （四）完善建筑节能标准体系 .............................................................................. 91 （五）统一建筑节能计算方法，完善计算软件及配套的数据库 ...................... 91 十、结论与建议（展望） .......................................................................................................... 92 （一）结论 .............................................................................................................. 92 （二）建议 .............................................................................................................. 93 （三）展望 .............................................................................................................. 95 附录 A 建筑领域节能减排的发展历程及成就 ................................................................... 97 （一）建筑领域节能减排发展历程 ...................................................................... 97 （二）建筑领域节能减排的成就 ........................................................................ 104 （三）建筑领域节能减排工作深化方向 ............................................................ 133 附录 B 我国建筑领域节能减排的不足和发展障碍 ...................................................... 136 （一）政 策法规方面 ............................................................................................ 136 （二）管理方面 .................................................................................................... 138 VII （三）标准规范方面 ............................................................................................ 139 （四）能力建设方面 ............................................................................................ 140 （五）节能意识方面 ............................................................................................ 142 （六）基础数据方面 ............................................................................................ 143 （七）基础研究方面 ............................................................................................ 144 （八）产业和技术方面 ........................................................................................ 146 附录 C 国际上建筑节能的历程和经验 ............................................................................... 150 （一）欧盟 ............................................................................................................ 150 （二）德国 ............................................................................................................ 156 （三）丹麦 ............................................................................................................ 168 （四）英国 ............................................................................................................ 175 （五）加拿大 ........................................................................................................ 185 （六）美国 ............................................................................................................ 190 （七）日本 ............................................................................................................ 199 （八）对我国的启示 ............................................................................................ 206 附录 D 有关名词解释及说明 .................................................................................................. 210 附录 E 参考文献 .......................................................................................................................... 215 （一）法律法规 .................................................................................................... 215 （二）政府文件和领导讲话 ................................................................................ 215 （三）统计资料 .................................................................................................... 216 （四）学术论文 .................................................................................................... 216 （五）专著 ............................................................................................................ 219 （六）标准 ............................................................................................................ 219 （七）研究报告 .................................................................................................... 220 1 一、 引言 （一）课题研究背景 1．节能减排面临巨大的任务和压力 经济和社会的发展依赖于能源供应量的增加。然而，世界能源储量日渐匮乏，能源供需矛盾日益突出 ， 同时以化石能源为主的能源消耗，导致 CO2、硫化物、氮氧化合物等污染物的大量排放，污染环境。近年来，由于 CO2 浓度升高带来的气候变化已成为不争的事实，碳排放及大气环境问题已经引起全世界范围的高度关注。 改革开放以来，我国社会和经济的高速发展，成就 举世 瞩目。但能源消费也随之快速 增长，到 2012 年我国一次能源消费量已经达到 36.17 亿 tce（ 吨标准煤 ） 。我国的能源结构是以煤炭为主， 2008 年首次超过美国，成为世界上温室气体最大排放国， 年排放 量 已达 60 亿吨。