9  j ˜   S K     *姚null 昕null 刘希颖null null 4 1 气候变化问题目前已成为全球关注的问题,探索低碳经济发展模式成为气候变化背景下人类必须作出的共同选择b中国是一个发展中国家,也是目前世界上最大的碳排放国,需研究在保障经济发展的前提下,如何进行经济转型和碳减排b碳税作为有效的市场减排手段,为各国政府所提倡b本文从微观主体出发,充分考虑中国经济增长阶段性特征,并通过求解在增长约束下基于福利最大化的动态最优碳税模型,得到最优碳税征收路径,并测算其宏观影响b结论发现开征碳税有利于减少碳排放,提高能源效率,并可以调整产业结构b在保障经济增长的前提下,中国最优碳税是一个动态的渐进过程b随着经济增长,经济社会承受力不断提高,最优碳税额逐渐上升b在具体的政策实施中,开始比较低的碳税可以使经济社会避免受到比较大的冲击b1 o M 最优碳税null 二氧化碳排放null 产业结构调整null 宏观经济影响* null -  a  – ,0 v   S   6     ,  Ÿ I ’ 361005; 0  Q lyhneyao hotmail. comb  s ž    €S  *  n „ S E S    v [ 09ZD050   , T €    †  u  –   9  j ˜   S K     S Ÿ  X  ’ 4   ž 2020 M , L C †  S 3  9      † bh { 1 2005 M † 40 45P  b  h      † b9   9 ,   l  „  9  ,2009b    B   y ™ T b  ˜ l    6  ‚ “  , ƒ t ‚ ,˜ l  K             “ † Ÿ  5 b   F    M 1    † b    , 3  as  P   Ÿ ˜ l n  b -    r S E X  v w  g 2008    S h      † b9    . ,[  ‚ ]  h † Ÿ   S  6   • Y b l  „  9  2009s    aB  † b ƒ Œ  8  a † † b ƒ Œ 8  a€ L aŸ    ƒ       h † Ÿ     1    ,    Œ K    Z   ‚ b  „  2009Y V y [  † b   y M   STIRPAT  ˜ ,s    † b    1 • Y    y , 7   h   † b  Ÿ   { bLiang et al2007 y ™  ˜ , E  S ˜ l    4  6 • Y b , Ÿ †  Ÿ S    [ 5 F 2009  S 7 ˜   5   ∀ s    S 7 ˜   A 1 Ÿ „ V › Ÿ ,  V [ I n  Ÿ  M 7 ˜  bS    i  / B t  1  5  B ,  I n  S T   Z  S E   y S f ,  | Z   d B  Ÿ   b  , ˜ l   E  H  ,v † s  €    9 V   ,7  s     S   b ,S      h †       N   Ÿ    4  6 •Y ,7  {  h n € ž Z  • Y bNordhaus 1992,1994 y  DICE  ˜ , DICE  ˜    Q   K    ‚ ,   M 1 h † Ÿ   › s  „ 1  b  DICE  ˜ ,Nordhaus Yang 1996y  RICERegionalIntegrated model of Climate and the Economy  ˜ ,Y V RICE  ˜ s  V S E W  | † T Ÿ  |1 ‚ † T h †     i  8 bNordhaus 2007 DICE  ˜  ›  ” Z , B „ s   ‚ ] h †Ÿ    6 a a † be  q   • Y bDICE  ˜ –       6 9  ‚ ,Œ F    M    6  y I n bM   B  DICE  ˜ F  - “    i  1 –   ,       d  3     b ] Y     ‚ B  , DICE  ˜   6 8 V [ g     a   „ / Œ ,i O Y V t 4  C  „  Ÿ  h n  › |  b7 O V [ |  i  8 A T    ,Y V h † Ÿ †  ƒ     ”  b Y V C   h †   ,V [ †   Ÿ y   M  /   ,V 7 r ž 9 F  Ÿh n   ,ƒ  DICE  ˜ p   t K   b i  8 † b  † o Ÿ  5 ,  i l       h †    B  S  h †  O 8 /  ‚ Œ  i l bDICE  ˜   7   Ÿ † o Ÿ   ˜ ,7 RICE  ˜ 5 I n  u    ˜  ˜ bk  Lin2010   T , T  r S E k ›  h †  v ,h †   v  V [  h   S[ “  Z  S E  9  , T  N 9 , Ÿ 10 M  † b9  V [ j T v † s   S M 1 b] H  |  {  S S u  Ÿ  y ,  DICEnull2007  ˜ Ÿ s   S T  B  œ 8 S E   5 b ‹  A ž  S B   Z  S E , - K  1  S  Z b S -   Z   DICE50- null  a  –   9  j ˜   S K       /  Z  v † s Ÿ 1 Nordhaus, W. 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D. , 2007, The Challenge of Global Warming EconomicModels and EnvironmentalPolicy, Working paper.QiaonullMeiLiang, YingFana, c, YinullMingWei, 2007, MultinullregionalnulloutputModelfor RegionalEnergy Requirements andCO2 Emissionsin China, Energy Policy, Vol. 35, 1685 1700.Roy Boyd, Maria E. Ibarraran. , 2002, Costs of Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol a Developing Country Perspective, EnergyEconomics, 24, 21 39.Frank Scrimgeour, Les Oxley, KoliFatai, 2005, Reducing Carbon EmissionsThe RelativeEffectiveness of DifferentTypes ofEnvironmentalTax the CaseofNew Zealand, Environmental Modeling Software, 20, 1439 1448.Cagatay Telli, Ebru Voyvoda, ErincYeldan, 2008, Economics of EnvironmentalPolicy inTurkey AGeneralEquilibrium Investigation oftheEconomic uation ofSectoralEmission Reduction Policies for Climate Change, Journal of Policy Modeling, 302, 321 340.GovindaR. Timilsina, Ram M. Shrestha, 2006, General Equilibrium Effects of a Supply Side GHG Mitigation Option under the CleanDevelopment Mechanism, Journal of Environmental Management, 80, 327 341.572010 M  11 Optimal CarbonTaxin ChinawiththePerspectiveof EconomicGrowthYao Xin and Liu XiyingChinaCenter for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen UniversityAbstractThe issue of climate changehas become a global concern. Under the background of climate change, exploring a lownullcarbon economicdevelopment model is the common choices of different governments. As the world top emission country and thelargest developing country, Chinaneeds tofind awaytobalancethe economicdevelopment and carbon emission reductions. As aneffective for achieving emission reduction, carbon tax has always been advocated by governments all overtheworld. Thispaper begins with micro perspective and carefully considers the characteristics of China∗ s economic development in the currentstage. By applying the dynamic optimal tax model with welfare maximization under the constraint of economic growth, the paperfinds the optimal path of carbon tax, and further estimates the macroeconomic impacts of carbon tax using a CGE model. Weconcludethat carbon taxes are in favor of carbon emission reduction, energy efficiency improvement and industrial structureadjustment. Wefind that the optimal carbon tax in China is a dynamic and progressive process alongwith economic growth. Weproposethat with stronger social affordability in the process of economic growth, the carbon tax can be increased gradually. Inpractice, we believe arelatively low carbon tax at the beginning would protect the economy and society from large shocks due tocarbon tax.KeyWordsOptimal Carbon Tax; Carbon Dioxide Emissions; Industrial Structure Adjustment; Macroeconomic ImpactsJEL ClassificationQ54,H21,P28责任编辑尤null 玄 校对晓null 鸥    34 GreenIndustrial RevolutioninChinaAPerspectivefromthe Change of Environmental Total FactorProductivityChen ShiyiFudan UniversityAbstractThis paper employs directional distancefunction to estimate environmentaltotal factor productivity and its decompositionin Chinese industry between 1980 and 20