CR 31B9CR 2AG B6A9B0BPBZCODGC2DH Vol.31, No.22011A0 2 AB Systems Engineering Theory Practice Feb., 2011AWAMALBR 1000-6788201102-0214-07 BLA8BXBR F224.7 AWBGAOBBCQAA0AHBRB8ABAKDDCWAYCVA8DI ACCK EU ETS CWBCCRD6C0DGDCBA1,2,CBCSBL1,21. D1B3BFAFDFCOAHBFD7B4AWCODB, D1B3100081; 2. D1B3BFAFDFCOBPDAD7AQB5A0D7CPB6A4CK, D1B3 100081CN CC D0BXB9A1ASAIBEBJA0GED-GARCHBMCLAMVaR A8A6,BBD9EU ETSC8BUATC3DBDIDDCMC9DI. B1AKA5CG D4BJC22006BQDIBRA4C1AZA5BZBWARC2A5BZAO,EUETSDIC8B0CUBUATC3DBDIAYADA0C4CVA0C3DBD3A1CTAUC3DBA9CFDID2APB9D4AADEB9A1ASAIALDD, AVC7BKDIDDA1B7D5A5BYCN, DFC0D4B7D5BCD8D8DIC9CN, DHA5CQC2D4D6DJA3B8D6A0BOD9AYADA0AGBSC3DBA0CXDCCABVDJCRCDBHABDECYC6DIA7ANA8D3, DHA2C8C3DBCJBID4AC, C3DBA7D1ALA3. AJAXC8C3DBDID4BCD8D8CCAJ CDM CIBNAMCZCMBED5DABTDIC4CVDGBDBGCEA6D2CH.DFANCT B2A2CWA0C5;EUETS;C8BRA4;B9A1ASAIInterpreting the mean reversion of international carbon futuresprice Empirical evidence from the EU ETSZHANG Yue-jun1,2,WEIYi-ming1,21. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;2. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, ChinaAbstract This paper introduced the mean reversion theory, GED-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk VaRapproach to verify the existence of mean reversion in carbon market under the EU ETS European UnionEmissions Trading Scheme. Main empirical study results indicate that, whether before the compliancebreak in 2006 or after that, currently, neither carbon market price, return, volatility nor risk change movesalong a mean reversion process; in other words, their movements take on some divergence, without theevidence for prediction. This for the most part results from the integrated influence of a number of complexfactors such as political decisions, energy prices, stock market and extraordinary temperature, whichbrings about the low efficiency and overreaction in carbon market. The unpredictability of internationalcarbon market rts much influence on the returns of China’s CDM projects and bank financing productinvestment.Keywords Kyoto protocol; EU ETS; carbon allowance; mean reversion1 CHCAAMC8AZDDBQCPA9CNDFA4BNAG, CJC0A1ARD0CZCXCSA2CJDFA4D9AN, A2CZA1BUA4C2A9CQCJA2BPDDCGBF, C1D9CGBFCPBGBSAJBAAKC0AMC6AXA2. A2CZA4A3AACUA3B6EU ETSCEAXB5A1ARD0CZCXCSA2A1BUCJDDAACUCPBGA4C2CJ,CJADAKAMBMB0C8AWAZB7BTCMCED7CEBTBLBGBYCJCGDG. ATBM5DJCJDEAK, A2CZDDAFCKCGBFCSATBNAMDGA4BNABCGBFCJCQAUDICXCGBF,CO2A4A3A7DBCNCSATBSAYBNAMABC3AQA7BMABC3A0A9CNAABCCJCDCQBMAFAY[1].DDAFCKCGBFCECQBMBUBXCJALBGCGBF. C5DACFB0APD5, ALBGD7ASC6C9AJAJALB8CQAUB9CXCJB7BOB8ATCY. 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