Emissions Gap Emissions Gap Report 2020 2020 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 978-92-807-3812-4 Job number DEW/2310/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. 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The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. Maps, photos and illustrations as specified Suggested citation United Nations Environment Programme 2020. Emissions Gap Report 2020. Nairobi. Production United Nations Environment Programme UNEP and UNEP DTU Partnership UDP. https//www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 Supported by UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEPs carbon footprint.Emissions Gap Report 2020Emissions Gap Report 2020 V Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steering committee Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Mike Keoghan UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Jian Liu UNEP, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Katia Simeonova United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC, Priyadarshi Shukla Ahmedabad University and Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization Authors Chapter 1 Author Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark Chapter 2 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Germany, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands and Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway Contributing authors Caitlin Bergh University of Cape Town, South Africa, Monica Crippa Joint Research Centre/ European Commission, European Union EU, Andreas Geiges Climate Analytics, Germany, Catrina Godinho HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Plat, Germany, Sofia Gonzales-Zuiga NewClimate Institute, Germany, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter Climate Analytics, Germany, Kimon Keramidas Joint Research Centre/European Commission, EU, Yong Gun Kim Korea Environment Institute, the Republic of Korea, Swithin Lui NewClimate Institute, Germany, Zhu Liu Tsinghua University, China, Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Leonardo Nascimento NewClimate Institute, Germany, Joana Portugal Pereira Graduate School of Engineering COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Değer Saygin SHURA, Turkey, Claire Stockwell Climate Analytics, Germany, Jorge Villareal Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico, Mexico, William Wills COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Chapter 3 Lead authors Joeri Rogelj Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands and Joana Portugal Pereira Graduate School of Engineering COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Contributing authors Niklas Hhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Daniel Huppmann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria, Gunnar Luderer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Chapter 4 Lead authors Niklas Hhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany and Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark Contributing authors Parth Bhatia Centre for Policy Research, India, Brian OCallaghan University of Oxford, UK, Sherillyn Raga Overseas Development Institute, UK, Nigel Yau University of Oxford, UK Chapter 5 Lead authors Jasper Faber CE Delft, the Netherlands and David S. Lee Manchester Metropolitan University, UK Contributing authors Susanne Becken Griffith University, Australia, James J. Corbett Energy and Environmental Research Associates, USA, Nick Cumpsty Imperial College London, UK, Gregg Fleming Volpe Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, USA, Tore Longva DNV GL, Norway, Marianne Tronstad Lund Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway, Tristan Smith University College London, UK Chapter 6 Lead authors Stuart Capstick Cardiff University, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK, Radhika Khosla University of Oxford, UK and Susie Wang Climate Outreach, UK Contributing authors Nicole van den Berg Utrecht University, the Netherlands, Diana Ivanova University of Leeds, UK, Ilona M. Otto Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Timothy Gore Oxfam International, UK, Adam Corner Climate Outreach, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transations, UK, Lewis Akenji Hot or Cool Institute, Germany, Claire Hoolohan University of Manchester, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK, Kate Power KR Foundation, Denmark, Lorraine Whitmarsh University of Bath, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK Emissions Gap Report 2020 VI Reviewers Thibaut Abergel International Energy Agency, Ritu Ahuja The Energy and Resources Institute, Juan-Carlos Altamirano World Resources Institute, Pieter Boot PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Kathryn Jennifer Bowen Australian National University, Laura Brimont Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Jan Burck Germanwatch, Marina Bylinsky Airports Council International Europe, Sylvain Cail Enerdata, Katherine Calvin Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Nicolas Campion Danish Technical University, Jasmin Cantzler GIZ, Cyril Cassisa International Energy Agency, Rachel Chi Kiu Mok World Bank, Laura Cozzi International Energy Agency, Daniel Crow International Energy Agency, Sophia David UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Chiara Delmastro International Energy Agency, Steffen Dockweiler Klimardet, Sebastian Eastham Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lukas Fesenfeld ETH Zurich, Olivia Flynn UK Department for Transport, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Andreas Frmelt ETH Zurich, Katja Funke International Monetary Fund, Harikumar Gadde World Bank, Mengpin Ge World Resources Institute, Franck Goury EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Noah Kaufman Columbia University, Terry Keating United States Environmental Protection Agency, Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis Fundacin Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Gabriel Labbate United Nations Environment Programme, Alan David Lee World Bank, Gerd Leipold HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Plat, Mason Scott Lester Danish Technical University, Sharon Lo UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Karan Mangotra The Energy and Resources Institute, Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Patrick Matthewson UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Axel Michaelowa Perspectives Climate Group, Daniel Beat Mller Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Andrei Mungiu EU delegation to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation – CORSIA, Marie Mnster Danish Technical University, Tirthankar Nag International Management Institute, Kolkata, Miles Perry EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Apostolos Petropoulos International Energy Agency, Annie Petsonk Environmental Defense Fund, Pedro Piris-Cabezas Environmental Defense Fund, Rhian Rees- Owen UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Yann Robiou du Pont Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Michael Russo University of Aveiro, Mateo Salazar Vivid Economics, Himanshu Sharma United Nations Environmental Programme, Chandra Shekhar Sinha World Bank, Sandhya Srinivasan World Bank, Julia Steinberger University of Leeds, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Jacopo Tattini International Energy Agency, Jacob Teter International Energy Agency, Tom Van Ierland EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Tiffany Vass International Energy Agency, Benjamin Walker UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, George Williams UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Zhao Xiusheng Tsinghua University Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership and John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Editorial support Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership and James Haselip UNEP DTU Partnership Secretariat and project coordination Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Kaisa Uusimaa UNEP, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Ying Wang UNEP and Edoardo Zandri UNEP Media and launch support Daniel Cooney UNEP, David Cole UNEP, Carlota Estalella Alba UNEP, Florian Fussstetter UNEP, Keishamaza Rukikaire UNEP, Maria Vittoria Galassi UNEP, Michael Logan UNEP, Nancy Groves UNEP, Neha Sud UNEP, Pooja Munshi UNEP, Viola Kup UNEP, Mette Annelie Rasmussen UNEP DTU Partnership, Lasse Hemmingsen UNEP DTU Partnership and several other members of the UNEP communication division Design and layout Joseph the European Union, which aims to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050; China, which announced plans to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060; Japan, which announced a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050; the Republic of Korea, the president of which committed the country to becoming carbon neutral by 2050 in a speech to parliament; Canada, which has indicated its intention to legislate a goal of net- zero emissions though it is unclear if this refers to just CO 2 or all GHGs by 2050; South Africa, which aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050; and Argentina and Mexico, which are both part of the UNFCCC Climate Ambition Alliance working towards net-zero emissions by 2050. Figure ES.3. Reduction in emissions in 2020 relative to 2019 levels due to COVID-19 lockdowns 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Jan. Feb. March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Daily differences between January and October of 2019 and 2020 Mt CO 2 per day Power Ground transport Industry sidential Aviation Shipping Power Industry Ground transport ▶ There has been limited progress of G20 members in terms of providing al submissions to the UNFCCC by 2020 of mid-century, long-term low GHG emission development strategies and new or updated NDCs. As at mid-November 2020, nine G20 members Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America have ted long-term low GHG development strategies to the UNFCCC, all of which were ted before net-zero emissions goals were adopted. No G20 member has officially ted a new or updated NDC target. ▶ Although the recent announcements of net- zero emissions goals are very encouraging, they highlight the vast discrepancy between the ambitiousness of these goals and the inadequate level of ambition in the NDCs for 2030. Furthermore, there is inconsistency between the emission levels implied by current policies and those projected under current NDCs by 2030, and, more importantly, those necessary for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. ▶ To make significant progress towards achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement by 2030, two steps are urgently required. First, more countries need to develop long-term strategies that are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and second, new and updated NDCs need to become consistent with the net-zero emissions goals.Emissions Gap Report 2020 XVIII 5. Collectively, G20 members are projected to overachieve their modest 2020 Cancun Pledges, but they are not on track to achieve their NDC commitments. Nine G20 members are on track to achieve their 2030 NDC commitments, five members are not on track, and for two members there is a lack of sufficient ination to determine this. ▶ In line with previous Emissions Gap Reports, this report pays close attention to G20 members, as they account for around 78 per cent of global GHG emissions and thereby largely determine global emission trends and the extent