全球气候变化预估最新研究进展.pdf
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 2 68-70.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullO.null.nullO.nullOMMS.null P.null ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVol.2, No.2March, 2 0 0 6.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ shaded area is increasing rainfall, slant linesdenote areas where the difference is larger than 0.5 and 1.0times of intermodel standard deviation [2].nullnonmarkingreturn [1][2]Zhang X D, Walsh J E. Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Oceanscenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations [J]. J. Climate, 2006 inpress.Kitoh A , Uchiyama T. Changes in onset and withdrawal of the EastAsian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments[J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2006 in press.Zhao Zongci, Gao Xuejie, Xu Ying, et al. Projections of extreme weatherand climate events in China for the 21st century [C]. Proceedings of UK-China Workshop on Climate Change. 2006 in press.[3]40.nullk20.nullkEQ20.nullp60.nullE90.nullE 120.nullE 150.nullE 180.null1.510.50.50.50.50.5J0.5011.510.5000.50.50000.50.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.null.null121.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null60.null.null90.nullN.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nulla.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullb.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 1980J2000.nullnonmarkingreturn［1］.nullnonmarkingreturn P.69.nullFig. 1 Projected change of Arctic surface air temperature a and sea ice area b in the21st century relative to 1980-2000[1]see Zhao’s text, P.6920th-century forcingSRES B1SRES A2SRES A1BABCDEFGHIJKLMN9876543210J1J2J31900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100.nullnonmarkingreturn L.nullCNRM_CM3MIROC_3.2_MEDRESGFDL_CM2.0GISS_MODEL_E_RNCAR_PCM1MRI_CGCM_2.3.2AINMCM_3.0NCAR_CCSM_3.0MPI_ECHAMSUKMO HADCM3IPSL CM4CCCMA_CGCM_3.1CSIRO_MK_3.0GFDL_CM2.1.nulla2.00.0J2.0J4.0J6.0J8.0200J20J40J60J80SRESA1B A2 B1 CommitCGCM3.1 T47CNRM-CM3CSIRO-MK3.0GISS-AOMGISS-ERINM-CM3.0IPSL-CM4MIROC3.2 hiresMIROC3.2 medresMRI-CGCM2.3.2CCSM3PCMUKMO-HadCM32000 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100/106 km2.nullnonmarkingreturn “L.null2040 .nullb.null.null22005.nullnonmarkingreturn .null“T.nullnonmarkingreturnE.nullF.nullnonmarkingreturn P.71.nullFig. 2 Annual mean temperature anomalies .null overChina in 2005 see Ye’s text, P.71.nullnonmarkingreturn “2005.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.null32005.nullnonmarkingreturn .null“ R.nullnonmarkingreturnE.nullF.nullnonmarkingreturn P.72.nullFig. 3 Percentage of annual precipitation anomalies over China in 2005 see Ye’s text, P.72T/.null.null21201.null0R /.null502550025J250J50 J25.nullJR0
