基于SWAT模型分析淮河流域中上游水量平衡要素对气候变化的响应.pdf
N ZN [ 11 6 2015 N 11 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 11 No. 6November 2015doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.06.004Tw 3 5 2 1 1 1L 2 SWAT A F [1 f 19711990 N 19912014 N A5 SWAT r FsU UBV _ r _ Nash-Sutcliffe Ens R2 0.8 N Re 1 { D . AW N AM N u B 1 A c XtB A 3M im u 1 Aw u WN 2B 2 Q ELwttW _ 2N2 pz12 zZ 19712014 N v i u W _ N 7 N | i\ N i9U U U W 6 N2 5 02 pN SWAT N m 2015-07-20 2015-09-11\ A a 8c HRM201406 T a N\ CCSF201507U f 19612008 N A B7 27Lws 0.39F /10a8 j BN u N p w \8 W ANc X,B A A F N A G u8 A f N A 0 uj\ 2 m 2 A i \9 19512008 N A [1 N Ai r 6.8 108m3/10a 19562008 N AF N A G r 3.9 108m3/10a F f [1 F A i rtZ 1.6 1083.2 108 2.6 108m3/10a \10-11 N AN_ z1 U U z As [U2 k tZ A 73.6 10.0 s \s s s UstZ 19.2 18.7 16.0 15.3 v on 1 3 [F 3 / 2 T X B U SWAT _ T k 8tU A t J o 0 z1 c Xt ZM FDMX A AW [5R 0 z1 c Xt A A 2 T , 2001, 37 1131-136Sirinivasan R, Arnold J G, Jones C A. Hydrologic unit modeling ofthe United States with the soil and water assessment tool [J]. WaterResources Development, 1998, 4 3 315-325Ncitsch S L, Arnold J U, Kiniry J R, et al. Soil and water assessmenttool theoretical documentation version 2005[M]. College StationTexas Water Resource Institute, 2002FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISS-CAS/JRC. Harmonized World Soil Databaseversion 1.0 [R]. FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria,2008eV , , b , . x N Z [J]. c,s , 2014, 36 1 192-199D , b , , . SWAT2009 [M]. , 20128 . [M]. T , 2009S ,W , g , , . SWAT As N AZ [J]. 4 , 2014, 34 6 1559-1567Davis J R. Guidance for rural watershed calibration with EPA SWMM[D]. Colorado Colorado State University, 2008 21-26 , , , g , . , kC 2 [J]. T , 2009, 31 9 1599-1606 G , , , . v , JU [Fb 2 [J]. m v , 2013, 36 5 831-840; , , , . SWAT A [J]. , 2013, 33 4 32-37[21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][20] SWAT t A 2 NZ6 411Water Balance Response of the Climatic Change Based on SWATModel in the Upper-Middle Reach of Huaihe River Basin1 Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China; 2 Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and SatelliteRemote Sensing of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China; 3 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081,China; 4 Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, ChinaAbstract Huaihe River basin is located in central-eastern China, and it stands between the south-north climatictransitional zone. Varied kinds of weather systems mutually interlock and mutually effect, which s a typicalecologically fragile area, and Huaihe River is also a sensitive area of climate change. In order to fully understandthe impact of climate change to runoff in the upper-middle reach of Huaihe River basin, the paper applied the dataof monthly runoff from 1971 to 1990 for the calibration and the data from 1991 to 2014 for verification by usingautomatic adjusting and parameters adjusting of SWAT model. The uation results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and linear determination coefficient were more than 0.8, and the relative error ofsimulation Re was less than 1, indicating that the model could effectively reproduce the rainfall-runoff processof monthly scale. The annual runoff depth didn’t show obvious linear trend in general, while the upstream and thesouthern part of the runoff depth of the sub-basin were linear decreasing, and other areas were increasing. Theannual evaporation and water percolation past bottom of soil profile in watershed for the year contributed more tothe change of annual water balance elements. The average temperature, precipitation and evaporation were thecritical factors of the changes of hydrological elements in the upper-middle reach of Huaihe River basin usingprincipal component analysis. Eliminating the influence of human factors, the annual water resources were slightlydecreased in the upper-middle reach of Huaihe River basin in 1971 .2014, which might be the result of significantlyincrease of the annual average temperature, slightly decrease of annual precipitation, and notably decrease ofannual evaporation. This study could provide a scientific basis for the management of water resources and policy-making in the upper-middle reach of Huaihe River basin.Key words SWAT model; water balance; climate change; the upper-middle reach of Huaihe River basinWang Sheng1, 2, Xu Hongmei3, Gao Chao4, Xu Min1, 2
