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}2 Institute ofEnergy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaAbstract Focused on the main allocation schemes in the international community at present, China’s emissionallowances during 2011.2050 under the 2
F target are studied in this paper. The sensitivity of parameter settingsare further analyzed by controlling key variables. The results indicate that to follow the RCP2.6 pathway consistentwith the 2
F target, China would receive allowances around 150.440 Gt CO2until 2050. However, the schemespurely based on equal per capita emission have already been the most unfavorable to China. To preserve reasonableemission rights, China should insist on the full coverage of historical responsibilities in climate negotiations. Thechoice of global emission pathways will significantly affect China’s allowances. If the global budget is reducedby 40.50 compared with the 2010 level, the range of China’s CO2allowances is 151.474 Gt CO2. If thereduction increases to 50.60, the range changes to 138.478 Gt CO2. It shows that the floor of China’s fairrange will be relied on the global pathway more greatly.Key words climate change; emission allowance; parameter sensitivity; historical responsibilityPan Xunzhang1, 2, Teng Fei2T T Vw‹W
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