2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化.pdf
e N doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.03.001 , . 2F pN q 0 Z rN [J]. N [ , 2015, 11 3 157-164 3F pN q 0 Z rN \w j 9 j G p e CR\N q2,BN p 7 - O| 2 Z rNX 70 wZzON Z C . . \6 - j X2 \1-2 s i N q u fj 9 c y T C T F T GY }F 2F pN q N . Uj 9 i T \3 j CsO7 [9 b 9 2 1 1 1 2L 2 CMIP5 U RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 g U\ 1890 1900 N 2F pN qI X I Z rN U UW RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5g 0 2F pN qtZ4 2063 N 2040 N 2036 N 2F pN q g 0 tZ7 2.99F 3.22F 3.28F W p 2F7 N h GtZ G 8.35 7.16 7.63 t 7 Z RCP4.5 g 0 c i qA q RCP4.5 g 0 G iW Z rN UBs “ _ N v2 pN 2F pN q Z rN [ 11 3 2015 N 5 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 11 No. 3May 2015m 2015-01-16 2015-03-10\ T a N\ CCSF201416U f p * N } Z rc, 9 s C K [ [ e4 e [ 4 ZZ \4 UX ,z , U v , eT v/ p 4 2Z W _ N v 8 P W _T NN v \5 W _ p N { cw \6 NT U 8[ w 2 3 v \7-9 T v \10-14 \ t v \15-18 N U 2F e N N [158 2015 NW 1 CMIP5 16 pw [ A U Table 1 Basic ination on the 16 atmosphere-ocean generalcirculation models in the CMIP5pN q g 0T v W N u \19-20 j j C7w v vT C X p T , 2010, 40 7 911-922 , C , v8L , . T v 21X A 2 N g t [J]. , 2003, 8 1 19-25G , , E , . vNtP r F [J]. a , 2010, 21 5 580-589[12][13][11][14][15][16] , . N IPCC R [J]. N [ , 2014, 10 1 56-59Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Zhao Z C, et al. Detection, causes and projection ofclimate change over China an overview of recent progress [J]. Adv AtmosSci, 2007, 24 3 954-971Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, et al. Green-house-gas emissiontargets for limiting global warming to 2F [J]. Nature, 2009, 4581158-1162. , , z] . 8 CMIP5 UT F JE[1][2][3][4] e N N [164 2015 NMean and Extreme Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateauwith a 2 FFFFF Global WarmingQinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, ChinaAbstract Based on the output of CMIP5 coupling models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the timewith a 2F global warming was detected, taking 1890 .1900 as a baseline climatology. The mean climate changeand extreme climate events over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at that time were compared with the baselineclimatology. The results show that 2F global warming will appear respectively in 2063, 2040 and 2036 under theRCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios, and the temperature of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will increase 2.99F ,3.22F and 3.28F respectively, which are higher than 2F of global warming level. The annual precipitation willalso increase, and the anomaly percentage is 8.35, 7.16 and 7.63 respectively. Affected by the temperatureand precipitation increasing, the frost days and frozen days will reduce; the days of warm night and warm day willincrease; the moderate rain days, strong precipitation, and precipitation intensity will increase; the days of continuousdrought will decrease under RCP4.5 scenario. Chaidam Basin is a sensitive area to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau according to the change results of mean climate and extreme climate events.Key words 2F global warming; the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; mean climate; extreme climate eventsLi Hongmei, Li Lin E , , G , . 21 X A NtP r F [J].c,s , 2011, 33 3 479-487l , , g . 3050 N A1B g 0 N [J]. a , 2009, 28 3 475-484|w , [ . 2F pN q 0TN [J]. w T , 2012, 36 2 234-246 , . pN q 2F g 0T Z rN [J]. TZ , 2013, 58 8 734-742Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, et al. Summary for policymakers[M]//IPCC. Climate change 2007 the physical science basis [M].Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York Cambridge University Press,2007 1-18Jiang D B, Wang H J, Lang X M. uation of East Asian climatology assimulated by seven coupled models [J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22 479-495 [ , , , . IPCC AR4 U v F t [J]. N [ , 2007, 3 5 287-291Schneider S H, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, et al. Assessing keyvulnerabilities and the risk from climate change [M]//IPCC. Climatechange 2007 impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. CambridgeCambridge University Press, 2007 779-810IPCC. Climate change 2007 the physical science basis [M]. Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York Cambridge University Press, 2007 1-996 , |w , T . CMIP5 p U v F [J]. w T , 2014, 38 5 924-938[18][19][17][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]
