全球1970—2007年碳排放与城市化关联机理分析.pdf
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 6 423J427 423.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null7.null.null6.null2011.null11 .nullADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVo l. 7 No. 6November 2011.null.null.null.null.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2011 06-0423-05.null.nullN.null.nullnonmarkingreturn NIO.null.null.nullNIO.null.null.nullN.null.nullnonmarkingreturn N.nullnonmarkingreturnNVTM.nullOMMT.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academyof Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaAbstract By using the open data during 1970J2007 published by the World Bank , this paper explored the relationshipbetween urbanization rate and carbon emission per capita based on 112 samples . The results show that the carbonemission per capita is increasing along with the increasing urbanization rate, and 40 of the urbanization rate is ashift-point. Under the same level of urbanization, the carbon emission per capita in developed area and fossil fuel-produced area is higher than other areas. The results based on Granger Causality Test show that there is a co-relationGranger causality between urbanization rate and carbon emission per capita in most areas. There are commonphenomena, but also along with some differences among different areas.Key words carbon emission; urbanization; Granger Causality Test.nullnonmarkingreturn [1] .nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.null./01..nullnonmarkingreturn “ [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2010, 6 2 79J82.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn ,2010 4 85J89.nullnonmarkingreturn I.nullnonmarkingreturnI.nullnonmarkingreturn I.nullK.nullnonmarkingreturn “ IPCC.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2007, 3 6 311J314.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “ [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn, 2010, 234 9J11Grimm N B, Faeth S H, Golubiewski N E, et al. Global change and theecology of cities [J]. Science, 2008, 319 5864 756J760.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2011, 7 123J28[2][3][4][5][6]Dhakal S. GHG emissions from urbanization and opportunities for urbancarbon mitigation [J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,2010, 2 4 277J283.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.null,.nullnonmarkingreturn “ [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn , 2009, 39 12 1659J1671World Bank. Open data of World Bank [DB/OL]. [2011-06-01]. http//data.worldbank.org/.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “[M]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2000 280J281.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2005 2 16J21Dinda S, Coondoo D. Income and emission a panel-data basedcointegration analysis [J]. Ecological Economics, 2006, 57 167J181Coondoo D, Dinda S. Causality between income and emission a countrygroup-specific econometric analysis [J]. Ecological Economics, 2002, 40351J367.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “Granger.nullnonmarkingreturn [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn , 2010, 10 139J160[7][9][8][11][10][13][12][14]