影响北京城市增温的主要社会经济因子分析.pdf
.null.null.null.nullAdv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 4 188-192.null .null .null .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullO.null.nullQ.nullOMMS.null T.nullADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVol.2, No.4July, 2006.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2006 04-0188-05.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012“34567.nullnonmarkingreturn W20.nullnonmarkingreturn70.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012345678.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “P463.3.nullnonmarkingreturn “AKey Socio-economic Factors Contributing to Urban Warming in Beijing.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null2005J11J15.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “2006J01J20.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012345.null2003DIA6N017.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn.null1972J.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullKE-mail zhengyan_.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMTPO.null.null.null20.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./100 a.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.4.null0.8.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullIPCC.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.null1.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn50 a.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “100 a.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn nonmarkingreturn *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “I.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012.nullnonmarkingreturn “Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 4 188-.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,.nullNVTMJOMMP.nullnonmarkingreturn a .nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn.nulllnCDD.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nulllnU.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “b .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nulllnT.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nulllnU.null.nullnonmarkingreturn Fig. 1 Regression analysis between urban warming and urbanization in Beijing 1970J2003 a regression curve betweenlnCDD and lnU natural logarithm urbanization rate, b regression curve between lnT and lnU3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.32.652.602.552.452.407.02.506.6bln T ln U4.37.27.06.86.66.43.9 4.0 4.1 4.2ln CDDaln U.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0Q.null 189N.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn ““*.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null*,-.null2.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.null3.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “1951.null2003.nullnonmarkingreturn.null “0.35.null/10a.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .null4.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,.null20.nullnonmarkingreturn “*0.23.null/10a.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “8.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullCooling Degree Days.null.nullnonmarkingreturnCDD.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn1.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “20.nullnonmarkingreturn70.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn *,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn1.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null30.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0123.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “* .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullspurious correlation.nullI.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0123.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn ““*.nullnonmarkingreturn “O.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null5.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn 50.nullnonmarkingreturn.null6.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*nonmarkingreturn ,-./0.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “1951J2003.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullN.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnGDP.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ GDP.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullO.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullHeating DegreeDays.null.nullnonmarkingreturnHDD.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “1.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null“.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “NVM OMMS.nullAdv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 4 188-.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,.null7.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.null5J9.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null18.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null“.null10J4.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null8.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturnCDD.nullHDD.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn30.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “* ,.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn ““*.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “1.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn 1.nullnonmarkingreturn “1.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn P.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ADF.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullAugmentedDickey-Fuller Test.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ADF.nullnonmarkingreturn “t.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “t.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “I 0.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.nullI 1 .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnADF.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./012.nullnonmarkingreturn I 1.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 5.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnADF.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “Q.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn *,-.1969.nullGranger.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullGrangerCausality Test.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “X.nullnonmarkingreturn.null Y.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0123.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.“.nullnonmarkingreturn .null9.null.null.null.nullXt.null.null.nullYt.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn Y.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “X.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn Y.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn X.nullY.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullGranger Cause.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn X.nullY.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn ““.null10.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “HDD.nullCDD.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “““*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn ““1.null.null5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “1.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “2.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..nullnonmarkingreturn “3.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*4.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*5.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ GDP.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null*.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn ““.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn ““*.nullnonmarkingreturn “R.nullnonmarkingreturn ““*,-.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullco-integration.null.nullnonmarkingreturn20 a.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null*,-.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECM.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.null10.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturnEngle-Granger.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0Q.null 191Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 4 188-192.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn ““Table 1 Granger causality test results.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 4146152031234950143428491616.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ GDP.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn /a F.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 342333323214123.132443.7906611.24304.204343.170603.671833.068315.160395.474732.851758.736793.530585.495804.175750.038160.011100.002760.027670.042590.034710.038090.017730.029740.044780.006710.014700.035600.04852.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.05.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn95.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 2.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ECM.nullError CorrectModel.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn*,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn c.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn1.null5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullR2.null.nullDW.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullDurbin-Watson statistic.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “2.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012.null2.nullnonmarkingreturn “Table 2 Co-integration test results.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “bj.null.nullnonmarkingreturn 0.831.140.130.120.300.100.150.190.09CDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn EX1FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn EX2FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturnGDPEX3FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn “EX4FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn EX5FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn “EX6FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn “EX7FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn “ GDP.nullnonmarkingreturnEX8FCDD J.nullnonmarkingreturn EX9F.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn DW.null3333343431213434330.520.560.530.560.480.580.550.500.521.711.891.771.751.811.611.821.551.95R2ECMt lnCDDtJ 0.83 ln X1t J 1.46ECMt lnCDDtJ 1.14 ln X2t J 2.04ECMt lnCDDtJ 0.13 ln X3t J 5.78ECMt lnCDDtJ 0.12 ln X4t J 5.95ECMt lnCDDtJ 0.30 ln
