.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null11.null.null1.null2015.null1.nullPROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 11 No. 1January 2015doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.002.nullnonmarkingreturn,.nullnonmarkingreturn ,.nullnonmarkingreturn ,.null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences andNatural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3 General Institute of Water Resourcesand Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China; 4 University of ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaAbstract Based on the assessment model established on the basis of the sensitivity, adaptability of the water resourcessystem, exposure and droughts risk, from the supply-demand balance view, the water resources vulnerability wereuated in the eastern China monsoon region. The results show that under current conditions in 2000, nearly 90of the research region faces moderate or serious vulnerability of water resources, where 75 is moderately or highlyvulnerable and 15 is extremely vulnerable. Huanghe, Huaihe, Haihe and Liaohe River basins have the high waterresources vulnerability. The future climate change will aggravate the risk of water resources vulnerability. Underdifferent RCP emission scenarios in 2030s, moderately vulnerable areas will significantly expand in the easternChina monsoon region. Extremely vulnerable areas will account for 20 to 25. Due to the increasing water demand,the water resources vulnerability pattern will not change in North China. And the southeastern river basins will alsoface possible water crisis in the future.Key words water resources vulnerability; climate change; the eastern China monsoon regionXia Jun1, 2, Luo Xinping2, Cao Jianting3, Chen Junxu2, 4, Ning Like2, 4, Hong Si2 ,4.nullnonmarkingreturn , 2013, 35 9 12-14.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01234.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “[D]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2014Fu G B, Charles S P, Chiew F H S. A two-parameter climate elasticity ofstreamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow[J]. Water Resources Research, 2007, 43 11, W11419, doi 10.1029/2007WR005890Gardner L R. Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annualrunoff [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 379 3-4 351-359Chen J X, Xia J, Zhao C S, et al. The mechanism and scenarios of howmean annual runoff varies with climate change in Asian monsoon areas[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 517 595-606.nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “* [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2012, 20 .nullnonmarkingreturn 1-14Perveen S, James L A. Scale invariance of water stress and scarcityindicators facilitating cross-scale comparisons of water resourcesvulnerability [J]. Applied Geography, 2011, 31 1 321-328Miao C, Duan Q, Sun Q, et al. uation and application of Bayesianmulti-model estimation in temperature simulations [J]. Progress inPhysical Geography, 2013, 37 6 727-744Zhan C S, Song X M, Xia J. An efficient integrated approach for globalsensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters [J]. EnvironmentalModelling Software, 2013, 41 39-52Jiang T, Fischer T, Lu X X. Larger Asian rivers climate, water discharge,water and sediment quality [J]. Quaternary International, 2012, 282 1-4Yang C, Yan Z, Shao Y. Probabilistic precipitation forecasting based onensemble output using generalized additive models and Bayesian modelaveraging [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2012, 26 1-12.nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn. .nullnonmarkingreturnCMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn , 2014, 34 2 795-805[15][17][16][19][18][20][25][24][23][22][21]