气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究.pdf
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 5 290J295290.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2008 05-0290-06.nullnonmarkingreturn “ water security; impact1 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;2 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China; 3 Hydrology Bureau, Ministryof Water Resources, Beijing 100053, ChinaZhang Jianyun1, 2, Wang Guoqing1, 2, Yang Yang1, 3, He Ruimin1,2, Liu Jiufu1, 2.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-“..nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-.nullnonmarkingreturn [1][2]IPCC. Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis. Contributionof Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK andNew York, USA Cambridge University Press, 2007.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “. .nullnonmarkingreturn “ [M]..nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2007Schwarz H E. Climate Change and Water Supply How Sensitive is theNortheast [M]. Washington DC National Academy of Science, 1977Karl T R, Reibsame W. The impact of decadal fluctuations in meanprecipitation and temperature on runoff a sensitivity study over the United[3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]States [J]. Climatic Change, 1989, 15 3 423J447.nullnonmarkingreturn “, .nullnonmarkingreturn “. .nullnonmarkingreturn “2006 [M]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2007Trenberth K E. Atmosphere moisture residence times and cyclingimplications for rainfall rates with climate change [J]. Climatic Change,1998, 39 667J694.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . 20.nullnonmarkingreturn “*[J]..nullnonmarkingreturn , 2008 2 35J37.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null[M]..nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2002.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .null50 a.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2007, 18 2 230J234.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “*[M]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.null “, 2001.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “*[M]..nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn , 2007.nullnonmarkingreturn .null“. .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null2001BA611B0204.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01234[R]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn , 2003.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0[J]..nullnonmarkingreturn I 2000, 55 2 161J173.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*[M]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2002[13][14][5]
