1 NCSC Working Paper New Thinking on Chinas Mid- and Long-term Strategies to Address Climate Change in the New Era CHAI Qimin, FU Sha, LI Weiran, SUN Yihe National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation 20 thMarch, 2018 The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 18 to October 24, 2017. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly envisions the grand blueprint of China’s economy, society, politics, culture and ecological civilization construction by the middle of this century. The report draws a major political conclusion that “ socialism with Chinese characteristics has crossed the threshold into a new era “, and the report makes a two-stage development plan for the period from 2020 to the middle of this century. New ideas, new thinking and new strategies proposed by the report and the speeches delivered by President Xi Jinping on global climate governance set new requirements for the ulation of Chinas mid- and long-term strategies to tackle climate change. It also provides a reference for how to better use model and scenario analysis s to simulate the mid- and long- term strategies in addressing climate change. I. New ideas, new thinking, and new strategies for the development of China in the new era China has proposed a new paradigm that featuring ‘innovative, coordinated, green, open and sharing’ development which is for everyone for the first time. In particular, green development has been raised to an unprecedented level on the policy agenda. The report holds that the principal contradiction facing Chinese society has evolved and is now that between the peoples ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. The modernization that China pursues is one that characterized by a 2 harmonious coexistence between men and nature. In addition to creating more material and cultural wealth to meet people’s ever-increasing needs for a better life, providing high- quality ecological public goods to meet people’s ever-growing demands f or a bet ter environment is needed. It’s believed that building an ecological civilization is vital to sustain the Chinese’s sustainable development. In response to contemporary developments and by integrating theory with practice, the Communist Party of China has systematically addressed Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era ，including the adoption of a new vision for development, ensuring harmony between men and nature, promoting the building of a community with a shared future for all mankind. The report assumes that China should develop eco-friendly growth model and ways of life. The ‘Beautiful China Initiative’ must be reinforced in order to create good working and living environments for Chinese people and to play a part in ensuring the global ecological security. As stated in the report, China will pursue an open, innovative, and inclusive development that benefits everyone and cultivate ecosystems based on respect for nature and green development. China will be good friends to the environment, get actively involved in global environmental governance and fulfill its commitments on emissions reduction, cooperate to tackle climate change, and protect our planet for the sake of human survival. China will also continue its efforts to safeguard world peace, contribute to global development, and uphold international order and work with the people of all countries together to build a community with a shared future for mankind, to build an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity. Based on comprehensive analysis of the international and domestic environments, as well as the development conditions of China, the Communist Party of China has proposed a development strategy to build China into a great modern socialist country, where building a beautiful China and ecological civilization have also been placed in prominent position. The connotation of modernization with Chinese characteristics has become more rich. After adopting the policy of re and opening up, China laid out three strategic goals for 3 achieving socialist modernization in China. The first twoensuring that people’s basic needs are already met and that their lives are generally decenthave been accomplished ahead of time. Building on this, the Communist Party of China proposed the two centenary goals that by the time celebrating the Party’s centenary, China will have developed our society into a moderately prosperous one with a stronger economy, greater democracy, more advanced science and education, thriving culture, greater social harmony, and a better quality of life. After this, with another 30 years of work, and by the time China celebrate the centenary of the People’s Republic of China, China will have basically achieved modernization and turned China into a modern socialist country. China have drawn up a two-stage development plan for the period from 2020 to the middle of this century. In the first stage, that is from 2020 to 2035, China will build on the ground that created by the moderately prosperous society with a further 15 years of hard work to see that socialist modernization is basically realized. The vision is that by the end of this stage, the following goals will have been met China’s economic and technological strength has increased significantly. China has become a global leader in innovation. The rights of the people to participate and to develop as equals are adequately protected. The rule of law for the country, the government, and society is basically in place. Institutions in all fields are further improved; the modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance is basically achieved. Social etiquette and civility are significantly enhanced. China’s cultural soft power has grown much stronger; Chinese culture has greater appeal. People are leading more comfortable lives, and the size of the middle-income group has grown considerably. Disparities in urban-rural development, in development between regions, and in living standards are significantly reduced; equitable access to basic public services is basically ensured; and solid progress has been made toward prosperity for everyone. A modern social governance system has basically taken shape, and society is full of vitality, harmonious, and orderly. There is a fundamental improvement in the environment; the goal of building a Beautiful China is basically attained. In the second stage, which is from 2035 to the middle of this century, China will, on having basically achieved modernization, work hard for a another 15 years and develop China into 4 a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful. By the end of this stage, the following goals will have been met New heights are reached in every dimension of material, political, cultural and ethical, social, and ecological advancement. Modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance is achieved. China has become a global pioneer in terms of composite national strength and international influence. Common prosperity for everyone is basically achieved. The Chinese people enjoy happier, safer, and healthier lives. The Chinese nation will become a proud and active member of the community of nations. However, it is worth noting that these achievements do not change the assessment of the present stage of socialism in China. The basic dimension of the Chinese contextthat China is still and will long remain in the primary stage of socialismhas not changed. China’s international status as the world’s largest developing country has not changed. II. The new characteristics of Chinas mid- and long-term strategies to address climate change in the new era In the report that delivered by President Xi Jinping on the 19th National Congress of the CPC, three times “climate change“ were mentioned, and four times on “low-carbon“, 15 times on “green“, 27 times on “environment“, 43 times on “ecology“, showing an unprecedented attention paid on the relevant policies and strategies regarding green and sustainable development. For the first time, in the review of the past five years’ national actions for addressing climate, the report puts forward the assertion “Taking a driving seat in international cooperation to respond to climate change, China has become an important participant, contributor, and then torch-bearer in the global endeavor for the ecological civilization”. This is a historic interpretation of China’s role in global climate governance. The assertion points out the importance of international cooperation for tackling climate change in the global endeavor for ecological civilization, and clearly defines the role of China in global climate governance. It not only reflects the high recognition of the international cooperation for tackling climate change by the central government, but also responds to the voice of international community which expects China to show its 5 leadership. Moreover, it points out China’s orientation for leading in the global climate governance and the dream of contributing to global ecological security in the new era. New ideas, new thinking, and new strategies developed by China call for new and higher needs for the ulation of the mid- and long-term strategies to address climate change. First of all, The acceleration of China’s modernization process has led to changes in the assumptions of the previous economic and social development. In the two-stage development plan laid out by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the period of “basically realizing modernization” was fifteen years earlier than the three strategic goals laid out by the party’s 13th National Congress. The policies and actions of various areas and sectors will be accelerated. There will also be ne w p a t h w ays f or economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Secondly, The connotation of China’s modernization is more rich, especially the ecological civilization and green development are elevated to an unprecedented level of importance. The layouts of five-sphere integrated plan and the five new visions for development will speed up the construction of ecological civilization and green, low- carbon development, which are the basic content of the socialist modernization. The report puts “ fundamental improvement of the environment, the goal of building a Beautiful China will be preliminarily attained“ as an important aspect of the first “ further 15 years of hard work “. Multiple goals of modernization are shown in Table 1.  How to understand the basically achieving China’s modernization fifteen years ahead of schedule The basically realization of modernization in China could be defined with different indicators, such as achieving a GDP per capita of about 30,000 U.S. dollars, the level of moderately developed countries. According to this measurement , the average annual GDP growth rate is 6.5 until 2020, the rate is 5 from 2021 to 2035, the price index is 2, and assuming constant exchange rate. By 2035, the GDP of China will reach 290 trillion yuan, or about 43.6 trillion dollars, and the per capita GDP will reach 206,000 yuan, or about 30,000 dollars. 6 Table 1 Multiple goals of modernization Grade II index Unit Target value Economic Modernization 1.1 Per capita GDP U.S. dollar ≥20000 1.2 GDP proportion of RD spending ≥2.5 1.3 Number of patent authorization per 10 billion yuan of GDP - 100 1.4 Synthesis index of scientific and technological progress ≥70 1.5 GDP proportion of value added of service sector ≥55 1.6 Agricultural mechanization level Myriawatt / hectare ≥3 1.7 GDP proportion of total volume of foreign trade ≥60 1.8 Income per-capita urban per capita disposable income Yuan ≥60000 Rural per capita net income Yuan ≥25000 1.9 Engels coefficient Urban Engels coefficient ≤30 Rural Engels coefficient ≤35 Social Modernization 2.1 Urbanization ratio ≥70 2.2 Basic social security coverage 100 2.3 Income ratio of urban and rural residents - ≤21 2.4 Number of civil societies owned per 10 thousand persons - 12 2.5 Number of public transportation owned per 10 thousand people in urban areas - ≥15 7 2.6 number of community facilities owned per 10 thousand persons - ≥8 2.7 per capita living space Urban per capita living space M2 ≥30 Rural per capita living space M2 ≥40 2.8 registered urban unemployment rate ≤4 Ecological Modernization 3.1 Proportion of days with good air quality ≥95 3.2 Discharge standard-meeting rate of industrial wastewater 100 3.3 Decontamination rate of urban refuse 100 3.4 Per Unit GDP Energy Consumption Tce/ten thousand yuan ≤0.5 3.5 GDP proportion of Comprehensive Utilization product value for “three wastes“ ≥2 3.6 urban green coverage rate ≥45 human modernization 4.1 the population proportion of people with Junior college diploma or higher ≥16 4.2Households proportion of expenditure on recreational activities, education and cultural service ≥20 4.3 Number of TV owned per 100 households Urban areas - ≥200 Rural areas - ≥150 4.4 Number of cellphone owned per 100 urban households - ≥200 4.5 Number of Internet broadband households per 1000 persons - 400 4.6 Number of doctors per 1000 Persons - ≥2.6 4.7 Average life expectancy Years old ≥78 8 Thirdly, the China’s modernization is more open, and taking new and greater contributions for mankind as the China’s abiding mission. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China offered solutions to solve many common challenges facing humankind, to build an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that enjoys everlasting peace, universal security, and also common prosperity. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also advocated “playing our part in ensuring global ecological security“. According to the characteristics of the new era, the ulation of med- and long-term strategies to address climate change should focus on the following three aspects First of all, China’s ulation of mid- and long-term strategies to address climate change needs to be adapted to the Re of Transition to a High-quality Development. Adjust and incorporate key indicators of economic and social modernization, especially the assumptions of economic growth and inclusion of new indicators including those of per capita . Chinas mid- and long-term strategies to address climate change must show new features and directions of the profound transation of economic development after China’s peaking in terms of carbon emissions , reflecting the trend of decarbonization in areas such as economic growth, energy systems, and consumer consumption. China should promote a sound economic structure that facilit