Available online at ScienceDirect Strategic deliberation on development of low-carbon energy system in China LIU Qiang*, CHEN Yi, TIAN Chuan, ZHENG Xiao-Qi, LI Jun-Feng National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China Received 6 January 2016; revised 17 March 2016; accepted 14 April 2016 Available online 22 April 2016 Abstract In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, Chinas energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking; promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term; the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030; and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored. Keywords Low-carbon energy; Scenario analysis; Strategic deliberation 1. Introduction The Chinese government has launched revolutionary mea- sures for energy production and consumption by imposing a ceiling on total energy consumption, enhancing energy con- servation, supporting the development of new and renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has officially announced to achieve CO2 emission peak around 2030 with the intention trying to peak early, and increase the share of * Corresponding author. E-mail address LIU Q.. Peer review under responsibility of National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration. Production and Hosting by Elsevier on behalf of KeAi non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20 by 2030, as determined in the ChinaeU.S. Joint State- ment on Climate Change in 2014 XNA, 2014. China has released its new commitment of reducing emissions intensity by 60e65 from 2005 level by 2030 in its recently released Chinas Intended Nationally Determined Contributions1 INDCs in 2015 NDRC, 2015. These strategies and tar- gets clearly reflect Chinas ambition in the development of a low-carbon energy system in China. There have been many studies on the development targets and approaches of low-carbon energy system with the utili- zation of various models and scenarios, such as those done by 1 In preparation for creating a new international climate agreement under the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015, countries have agreed to publicly outline the post-2020 climate actions they intend to take under a new international agreement, known as their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions INDCs. China ted its INDCs to the UN on June, 30th, 2015. http//dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.04.002 1674-9278/Copyright 2016, National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license http//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. LIU Q. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 7 2016 26e34 27 ERI 2009, Li and Qi 2011, Chai and Xu 2014, Wang and Zou 2014, Yuan et al. 2014, Elzen et al. 2016, etc. These studies provided a broad picture of development trend in en- ergy system under different assumptions and conditions and put forward different solutions for China to achieve the low- carbon energy development. However, along with the new international and domestic circumstances that China has gone through in recent years and the enhanced commitment and actions by the Chinese government on low-carbon develop- ment, it is necessary to reexamine the energy and carbon emission scenarios to strengthen the analysis on low-carbon energy development pathway in China. In this respect, this study develops 3 scenarios, i.e. baseline, positive and enhanced scenarios, to simulate primary energy consumption and CO2 emission from 2010 to 2050 in China, by deeply analyzing economic and social driving forces and exploring the sectoral and technological potentials for carbon emission reduction. The next sections will analyze the devel- opment trends and challenges for Chinas low-carbon energy system, summary and compare 3 different scenarios, and provide strategic deliberation on development of low-carbon energy system in China. 2. Development of low-carbon energy system in China general perspective 2.1. Basic trend in development of low-carbon energy system in China Energy consumption in China has entered into a new era, which will continue to grow for quite a considerable time period but will experience a much slower growth rate in the future. Since the 21st century, energy consumption in China has soared from 1.46 Gtce in the year 2000 to 4.26 Gtce in 2014, thereby exceeding the consumption of any other country globally and accounting for 22 of total global energy con- sumption NBSC, 2015. This figure represents a compara- tively low energy consumption per capita in China approximately 3 tce per capita, which is only 2/3 of that in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD countries IEA, 2014a; however, it is predicted that there will be continued growth in total energy demand over a prolonged time period, particularly with further increases in industrialization and accelerated urbanization within the country. Through an analysis of major driving factors involved in energy consumption, it has been indicated that the actual growth rate in energy consumption within China will gradu- ally decrease and become more reasonable. As China enters into a new era, which is described as the new normal, it is expected that the economy will gradually transit from a pattern focusing on quantity to one focusing on quality. Nevertheless, in view of the application of emerging low-carbon technolo- gies in sectors such as power generation, the manufacturing industry, and the building and transportation sector, it is considered that energy consumption in China will continue to grow for more than 20 years but will experience a quite low growth rate or even stable in the future. The development of clean and low-carbon energy has gained a good basis and is expected to undergo rapid advancement in the future. To boost the development of clean and low-carbon energy, China has established major institu- tional mechanisms and policy frameworks that promote the development of low-carbon energies such as natural gas and non-fossil energies. Chinas natural gas consumption increased from 34.1 billion m3 in 2004 to 180 billion m3 in 2014, making the country the worlds third largest natural gas con- sumer. However, primary energy consumption of non-fossil energies has increased in proportion from 4.0 in 1980 to 11.2 in 2014 NBSC, 2015. In 2014, the installed capacity of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power in China delivered 301.8, 19.9, 95.8, and 26.5 GW, respectively, which was 1.4, 1.8, 3.2, and 102.0 times the amount in 2010, respectively CEC, 2015; NBSC, 2011, 2015. Thus, China is the world leader in terms of its cumulative generation of renewable power, cumulative installed capacity and generation of hydropower, cumulative installed capacity of wind power, and cumulative capacity of solar-heated water REPN21C, 2015. Electrification, networks, and intelligence will be future trends in energy system transations. Global and domestic development trends show that electrical power as a clean, efficient, and convenient end-use carrier of energy will grad- ually become the major end-use energy type. Therefore, it is possible to use electrification as a symbol for measuring the level of energy technology development. In addition, it is considered that highly developed ination and network technologies will lead to a new era of the energy internet. In the UN Sustainable Development Summit in September 2015, the Chinese government proposed the promotion of explora- tion to establish a global energy internet to satisfy global power demands via a clean and green mode. As such, this provides a clear direction for Chinas energy reation. 2.2. Challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China The coal-dominant energy structure is occupying the development space for low-carbon energies. The energy in- dustry in China has long relied on high-carbon energies. In- dustrial deployment, infrastructure construction, research and development, and environmental protection measures are mostly coal oriented, and therefore, this focus hinders the development of non-fossil energies. The widespread problem of abandoning the use of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear en- ergies to maintain coal power at a high operation level has predominated in recent years. Changing the coal-based high- carbon energy structure is therefore a huge challenge for the development of a low-carbon energy system. Rigid energy demands and extensive development path- ways intensify dependence on high-carbon energies. Because of rapid industrialization and urbanization processes, there has been a rigid and fast growth rate in the demand for energy consumption, and it is not easy to alter this ethos. Simulta- neously, long-standing GDP-oriented development policies 28 LIU Q. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 7 2016 26e34 have given birth to the rapid and concentrated development of heavy industries. This has led to the establishment of a high proportion of energy-intensive industries and low-level over- development, and coal and other high-carbon energies have become important forces in maintaining the growth of these industries Du, 2014. Inefficient energy use is a major barrier in the development of low-carbon energy. In 2013, China had an approximate 8.7 share of global GDP WB, 2014 but consumed 22.6 of the worlds energy BP, 2014, with energy consumption per GDP at 4e8 times that of developed countries and more than 2 times that of the global average level. Energy inefficiency has not only resulted in a tremendous waste of energy resources and elevated greenhouse gas emissions but also solidified extensive development of the energy system, which has hin- dered innovation relating to a low-carbon energy system and renovation of an existing system. The lag in institutional mechanisms and market res is a key obstacle for the development of low-carbon energy. Due to the cured profits distribution pattern in the energy market, administrative monopoly, market monopoly, and disorderly competition are prent in energy industries, which impede improvements in technical and environmental standards. There needs to be an improvement in an existing energy pricing mechanism as the government continues to dominate in the determination of energy prices. This results in distorted market prices and hinders the development of low-carbon energy technologies such as wind, solar, small hydro, and distributed power generation technologies. Furthermore, China has not yet ed a systematic low-carbon energy policy system and lacks democratic and scientific decision-making schemes on energy issues, thereby making it difficult to provide effective support for low-carbon energy transation. 3. Scenario analysis of development of low-carbon energy system in China After completely analyzing economic and social factors in relation to the development of a low-carbon energy system in China, the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation NCSC established a bottom-up analysis model, i.e., Strategy Analysis on low-Carbon in China SACC model, which encompasses both the energy production and consumption sectors and accounts for carbon emissions Fig. 1. The SACC model mainly involves two modules one is an energy technology analysis module that uses an accounting for end-use sectors and a least-cost optimization for the power generation sector with the aim of analyzing technology options and relevant carbon emissions; the other is a policy uation module for low- carbon development. Based on the SACC model, carbon emissions2 in different scenarios are studied at 10-year 2 This paper focuses on CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. It does not consider CO2 emissions from other sources. intervals between 2010 and 2050, and the strategy for a transition to low-carbon energy system in China is introduced. 3.1. Scenario setting and analysis 3.1.1. Setting of economic and social development parameters for China This study adopts the UNs 2012 population projection for the increased trend in Chinas population as a reference UN, 2015, but the figure is adjusted downward in the medium and long terms to consider differences in the UNs figures for Chinas population in 2013 and 2014. It is projected that Chinas population will peak in around 2030 at about 1420 million and then gradually decline to 1353 million by 2050. For economic and social development, this study uses refer- ences from a large amount of research obtained from both international and domestic research institutions Johansson et al., 2012; IEA, 2014b; DRCSC, 2010; CELDSRG, 2011; CECERG, 2009 and considers factors such as exchange rate changes and real purchasing power. It has been projected that by 2050, Chinas per capita income will approach that of moderately developed countries and its urbanization level will come close to that of most developed countries. According to this prediction, by 2020, 2030, and 2050, Chinas GDP will be 2, 3.3, and 6.4 times that of 2010, respectively, while its ur- banization rate will rise to around 60, 68, and 75, respectively Table 1. 3.1.2. Scenario setting for development of low-carbon energy system On the basis of the above mentioned conditions of eco- nomic and social development, 3 scenarios are set for the development of a low-carbon energy system in China; these scenarios are explained as follows. Baseline scenario a scenario where current policies and measures continue. In this scenario, it i