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交通排放清单及社会成本评估.pdf

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交通排放清单及社会成本评估.pdf

Transport Emissions 3 work with WRI’s GHGP/GPC tool family to contribute to global cities’ emissions benchmarking; and 4 support the social cost-benefit analysis for local clean transport policies and technologies. REPORT ORGANIZATION The ology guide has six chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the background, objectives, and gives a quick tour of the guide’s main components. Chapter 2 explains the ology frame- work for transport emissions inventory and social cost ua- tion, which includes the application scope and ologies for top-down and bottom-up approaches. Chapter 3 introduces the ology of data quality analysis and the case of China in the context of poor data quality in developing economies. Chapter 4 discusses the key s and defaults required for emissions inventory and social cost uation. Chapter 5 discusses how to present and interpret the indicative results, which include the indicators of emissions inventory, emissions social cost, eco-efficiency results, and database quality. Chapter 6 suggests future studies and applications.WRI.org 4Transport Emissions and 6 of deaths were due to lung cancer. A 2013 assessment by the WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer concluded that outdoor air pollution is carcinogenic to humans, with the particulate matter component of air pollution most closely associated with increased cancer incidence, especially cancer of the lung. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, 2014, the cost of the health impact of air pollution in OECD countries including deaths and illness was about US1.7 trillion in 2010. In 2010, the cost of the health impact of air pollution was about US1.4 trillion in China, and about US0.5 trillion in India. These numbers are still climbing in Asia over the same period, the number of deaths resulting from outdoor air pollution rose in China by about 5, and in India by about 12 OECD, 2014. Transport is a key source of emissions A variety of sources are responsible for air pollutants, and these vary among countries and cities. In many developing and emerging economies, small boilers are important sources. Electricity generation, industry, and shipping in coastal areas can also generate air pollutants. However, in many countries and cities, transport especially road transport is a growing and sometimes the major source of air pollutants.WRI.org 6 Available ination suggests that, on average in OECD countries, road transport accounts for about 50 of the cost of air pollution OECD, 2014. If we take into account off-road transport, such as aviation and shipping, the total transport emissions share would be even higher. In emerging economies such as China and India, the estimates are lower, because of the contribution from other sources, but transport emissions nonetheless represent a large and significantly increasing burden OECD, 2014. The evidence is still building, but it is already clear that transport is a significant contributor to urban air pollution. In Chinese big cities, for example, motor vehicles are estimated to contribute about 15–35 of local PM 2.5in urban areas Song, 2014b. In Beijing, the number is estimated to be 31. In the Chinese capital, motor vehicles also account for 58 of the nitrogen oxides NO X and 40 of volatile organic compounds VOCsboth of which can have serious negative health effects Song, 2014b; CAA, 2016. In most rural areasespecially in inland Chinathe energy and industry sectors, as well as wood cook stoves, dominate emissions. But in urban areas and especially in megacities, transport is the major source of local emissions, and its share is growing as a result of urbanization and motorization. Based on the above ination about the transport contribution to air pollution OECD, 2014; Song, 2014b; CAA, 2016, I estimate that in 2010 the health impact cost of air pollution from the transport sector was more than US0.9 trillion in OECD countries, US0.2 trillion in China, and US0.07 trillion in India. Emissions are increasing in China and India, where rapid urbanization and traffic growth motorization are outpacing the adoption of tighter controls on emissions from vehicles. In addition to general air pollutants, the transport sector also produces CO 2and short-lived climate pollutants SLCPs such as black carbon particles and methane, thus contributing to near- and long-term climate change and local air quality degradation WHO, 2014. In general, human activity-related greenhouse gases GHGs and Figure 1 | City PM 2.5Source Apportionment Results Note The figure only shows the local sources; it does not include PM 2.5pollution blown from the city’s neighboring provinces. Sources CAA, 2016; Song, 2014b. Motor vehicles Industrial production Dust Other biomass buring, etc. Coal combustion 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Beijing Guangzhou Nanjing Hangzhou Changzhou Nanton ZhengzhouTransport Emissions Social Cost Assessment ology Guide 7 other air pollutants share the same sources. Reducing GHGs has the co-benefits of air pollutant reduction, thus mitigating environmental and public health issues. Measuring emissions inventories and uating their social impact costs are thus important because they can help decision-makers design more thorough and efficient policies based on numbers. Today many countries require emissions inventories before introducing any mitigation policies. However, there are also many developing countries that do not have the capacity to quantify emissions inventories and impact costs from the transport sector, because they lack technical support, ology, data, and awareness. 1.2 Objectives Quantification of transport-related emissions inventories and their impacts is always the first step in clean transport policy decision-making. In order to help governments take this step, the study team has developed this guide as well as a Transport Emissions Social Cost Assessment Tool TESCA, version 1.0. The guide and tool are developed specifically for China and other developing cities and countries, where the statistical system for the transport sector is still weak in terms of poor data availability and quality. The simple MS Excel–based tool is designed to estimate the inventories of six air pollutants NO X , SO X , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , CO, and HC and three GHGs CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O for 18 types of transport modes on either the national or local city level. In addition, it can help policymakers and decision-makers uate the range of social costs associated with transport emissions. This enables policymakers and decision-makers to design more cost-efficient policies and actions based on the results from the tool. The tool v1.0 was designed in 2014, and was successfully tested in Chengdu, the rapidly developing capital of Sichuan province in southwest China a separate report, Transport Emissions Social Cost Assessment Case of Chengdu, is available upon request. 2Comparing with the existing tools To quantify the transport-related emissions inventory, many organizations and countries have been developing their own tools. Among the most prominent transport emission tools are the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator MOVES, the International Vehicle Emissions Model IVE, the Computer Program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport COPERT, the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport HBEFA, and the Mobile Vehicle Emission Factor Model MOBILE see the detailed tools mapping in Appendix 2. For emission social cost uation especially the public health impact, useful tools or models include the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program BenMAP, the Impact Pathway Approach IPA under External Costs of Energy ExternE, and Greenhouse GasAir Pollution Interactions and Synergies GAINS. Different from these micro- level emission models or tools, this guide and tool provide a macro-level assessment framework. The framework gives users the flexibility of choosing either disaggregated or general data, at the country, regional, or city level, making the guide and tool more user-friendly for cities and countries with limited data accessibility and quality. The guide and tool are also a good complement to WRI’s macro-level GHG Protocol tool family WRI, 2012. Since the guide and tool are designed specifically for the transport sector the mobile sources, their outputs can help the GHG Protocol estimate emissions in greater detail. More important, since the GHG Protocol does not count non-GHG air pollutants, the estimate of criteria air contaminants CACs of the transport sector, as well as the macro- level social impact cost uation, can contribute as value-added products of the GHG Protocol. Objectives value-added functions The guide/tool has the following objectives and value-added functions▪ Provide ology to estimate the invento- ries of six air pollutants NO X , SO X , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , CO, and HC and three GHGs CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O for 18 types of transport modes on either the national or local city level.▪ Provide ology to uate the range of social cost associated with transport emissions, as well as the eco-efficiency 3of the transport system.▪ Provide a framework to uate data quality. More specifically, the guide and tool can help monetizing the co-benefits, which are the social

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