INTERNATIONAL DEBT STATISTICS 2020International Debt Statistics 2020International Debt Statistics 2020 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other ination shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax 202-522-2625; e-mail pubrightsworldbank.org. ISBN paper 978-1-4648-1461-7 ISBN electronic 978-1-4648-1462-4 DOI 10.1596/978-1-4648-1461-7 Cover design Jomo Tariku, World Bank Group The Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.v Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix PART I Overview 1 cutive Summary 3 Aggregate Financial Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries 5 External Debt Stocks in 2018 7 External Debt Flows in 2018 8 Borrowing Activities of IDA-Only Countries 10 Debt Indicators, 2009–18 11 Equity Flows in 2018 12 PART II Aggregate and Country Tables 15 All Low- and Middle-Income Countries 17 East Asia and Pacific 18 Europe and Central Asia 19 Latin America and the Caribbean 20 Middle East and North Africa 21 South Asia 22 Sub-Saharan Africa 23 Afghanistan 24 Albania 25 Algeria 26 Angola 27 Argentina 28 Armenia 29 Azerbaijan 30 Bangladesh 31 Belarus 32 Belize 33 Benin 34 Bhutan 35 Bolivia, Plurinational State of 36 Bosnia and Herzegovina 37 Botswana 38 Brazil 39 Bulgaria 40 Burkina Faso 41 Burundi 42 Cabo Verde 43 Cambodia 44 Cameroon 45 Central African Republic 46 Chad 47 China 48 Colombia 49 Comoros 50 Congo, Democratic Republic of 51 Congo, Republic of 52 Costa Rica 53 Cte d’Ivoire 54 Djibouti 55 Dominica 56 Dominican Republic 57 Ecuador 58 Egypt, Arab Republic of 59 El Salvador 60 Eritrea 61 Eswatini 62 Ethiopia 63 Fiji 64 Gabon 65 Gambia, The 66 Georgia 67 Ghana 68 Grenada 69 Guatemala 70 Guinea 71 Guinea-Bissau 72 Guyana 73 Haiti 74 Honduras 75 Table of Contentsvi TABLE OF CONTENTS India 76 Indonesia 77 Iran, Islamic Republic of 78 Jamaica 79 Jordan 80 Kazakhstan 81 Kenya 82 Kosovo 83 Kyrgyz Republic 84 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 85 Lebanon 86 Lesotho 87 Liberia 88 Madagascar 89 Malawi 90 Maldives 91 Mali 92 Mauritania 93 Mauritius 94 Mexico 95 Moldova 96 Mongolia 97 Montenegro 98 Morocco 99 Mozambique 100 Myanmar 101 Nepal 102 Nicaragua 103 Niger 104 Nigeria 105 North Macedonia 106 Pakistan 107 Papua New Guinea 108 Paraguay 109 Peru 110 Philippines 111 Romania 112 Russian Federation 113 Rwanda 114 Samoa 115 So Tom and Prncipe 116 Senegal 117 Serbia 118 Sierra Leone 119 Solomon Islands 120 Somalia 121 South Africa 122 Sri Lanka 123 St. Lucia 124 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 125 Sudan 126 Syrian Arab Republic 127 Tajikistan 128 Tanzania 129 Thailand 130 Timor-Leste 131 Togo 132 Tonga 133 Tunisia 134 Turkey 135 Turkmenistan 136 Uganda 137 Ukraine 138 Uzbekistan 139 Vanuatu 140 Venezuela, RB 141 Vietnam 142 Yemen, Republic of 143 Zambia 144 Zimbabwe 145 APPENDIX About the Data 147 User Guide to Tables 149 User Guide to IDS Online Tables and Database 151 How to Access IDS Online Country Tables 151 Indicators 153 How to Access the Database 155 Data Sources and ology 157 Data Sources 157 ology 158 External Debt and Its Components 160 Data Documentation 163 Sources of the Macroeconomic Indicators 167 Country Groups 169 Regional Groups 169 Income Groups 170 Glossary 171 Debtor Reporting System DRS 171vii Foreword T oday’s landscape of development finance is marked by the growing debt vulnerabilities of low- and middle-income countries. The post-2008 financial crisis era is characterized by a rapid rise in lending to them, fueled by factors including buoyant commodity prices, quantitative easing, and low interest rates in high-income countries. With increased access to international capital markets, many low- and middle-income countries shifted away from traditional sources of financing and experienced a sharp rise in external debt, rais- ing new concerns about sustainability. Among the low- and middle-income coun- tries, several IDA-only countries have been record- ing the highest increases in external debt since the 2008 crisis. By the end of 2018, IDA-only countries had accumulated a total of 387 billion external debt stock, more than double the level of a decade earlier. External debt among Sub-Saharan African countries grew faster than in other regions Over half of the countries in the region have seen their external debt stocks double. The increase in external debt stock over the same period is more pronounced for some countries 885 percent for Ethiopia, 521 percent for Zambia, 437 percent for Uganda, and 395 percent for Ghana. Ghana’s sovereign Eurobond, issued in 2007, marked the entry of African countries into the international capital markets. Since then, 12 other IDA-only countries have gained market access with bond issuance and other private sources of financing. The sovereign borrowers in Sub-Saharan Africa have accumulated 116 billion in bonds, and 89 percent of those bonds were issued by IDA-only countries. Sustainable borrowing is an important tool for economic growth and poverty eradication. It boosts countries’ capacity for long-term financing to invest in infrastructure, education, employment, and health. However, the rapid rise in debt accu- mulation and the shifts in debt composition pose new challenges for managing it. For both borrow- ers and creditors to safeguard debt sustainability, and for governments to design effective macroeco- nomic policies, debt transparency is critical. Accurate and comprehensive ination on the levels of debt, as well as its composition, is more necessary than ever. This year’s International Debt Statistics IDS presents the freshest data on trends in external debt in low- and middle-income countries. IDS now provides the clearest picture yet of govern- ment borrowing and sources of lending by type of creditor, with increased perspicuity on data avail- ability and improved data comparability. For the first time, IDS features detailed data on borrowing by public corporations and guarantees provided by governments, which sheds light on their contin- gent liabilities. IDS 2020 provides a select set of indicators, with an expanded data set available online. The World Bank is committed to continue working with governments and partners to improve data coverage, quality, and timeliness and to promote greater debt transparency and sustainability. David Malpass President The World Bank Groupix T his volume was prepared by the Debt Data Team of the Development Data Group DECDG at the World Bank, led by Evis Rucaj under the management of Haishan Fu, Director, and comprising Parul Agarwal, Arzu Aytekin Balibek, Allen Charles Church Jr., Wendy Ven-dee Huang, Daniella Kathyuska Bolanos Misas, Malvina Pollock, Rubena Sukaj, and Rasiel Vellos, who worked closely with other teams in DECDG. The team was assisted by Christelle Kouame. The overview of current developments was prepared by the Debt Data Team of DECDG; country economists reviewed the data tables. The work was carried out under the direction of Haishan Fu. Valuable was provided by the Office of the Senior Vice President, and by the Chief Economist, Development Economics. International Debt Statistics electronic prod- ucts were prepared by a team led by Malarvizhi Veerappan and comprising Ramgopal Erabelly, Rajesh Kumar Danda, Karthik Krishnamoorthy, and Ugendran Machakkalai. The cover was designed by Jomo Tariku and Parul Agarwal. Jewel McFadden from DEC Knowledge and Strategy and Susan Graham and Orlando Mota from Global Corporate Solutions, Design and Publications, coordinated the publication and dis- semination of the book. Acknowledgments1 PART I Overview 13 cutive Summary Financial flows to low- and middle-income countries came under pressure in 2018 due to a combina- tion of factors impacting the global economy, including rising U.S. interest rates and dollar appreciation, trade tensions, and general concerns about a slowdown in growth. These pressures were exacerbated by idiosyncratic country factors, including acute external financial vulnerabilities for example, high external debt combined with low foreign exchange reserves, worsening domestic economic and political risk, or exposure to mounting trade tensions. Overall financial inflows to low- and middle-income countries debt and equity fell 19 percent relative to the 2017 level. Central to this picture was China, which received over 42 percent of the net financial flows to low- and middle-income countries in 2017–18, a reflection, in part, of China’s efforts to open its domestic bond and stock markets, and of the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment’s MSCI’s decision to include Chinese stocks in its benchmark inds. Net financial inflows to China fell by a modest 4 percent in 2018, compared to a 29 percent decline to other low- and middle- income countries. The volume of financial flows to China and the level of its external debt stock are not large relative to the size of the domestic economy Chinese debt as a share of GNI was 14 percent in 2018but they are significant relative to other low- and middle-income countries, and they dominate the aggregate trends. To assist in the interpretation of the data, this report looks beyond the headline num- bers to outcomes and trends at the regional and country-specific level and for some sub-groups, including those eligible for IDA resources. Net financial debt and equity flows to low- and middle-income countries totaled 1 trillion in 2018, but this was 19 percent below the 2017 level Driving the downturn was a 28 percent fall in net debt inflows, to 529 billion, and a 49 percent reduction in portfolio equity inflows, to 35 billion. FDI inflows of 469 billion did not change much from 2017. The volume, and direction, of net financial flows in 2018, both debt and equity, were propelled by outcomes in China. It accounted for 49 percent of the combined net debt flows and 43 percent of the combined net equity flows to low- and middle- income countries in 2018. Net financial flows to China fell 4 percent in 2018, with an 18 percent decline in net debt flows largely offset by higher equity inflows. This contrasted sharply with other low- and middle-income countries where the net financial flows were, on average, 29 percent lower than in 2017. External debt stocks at the end of 2018 approached 8 trillion, but the overall pace of accumulation was much slower than in 2017 On average, the external debt stock of low- and middle-income countries rose 5.2 percent in 2018, about half the rate of accumulation 10.4 percent in 2017. China’s external debt stock rose 15 percent, to 2 trillionone quarter of the com- bined end-2018 external debt stocks of low- and middle-income countries. The average increase in 2018 external debt stocks in low- and middle- income countries other than China was 2 percent, but in some countries the increase was much larger. Conversely, for several of the largest bor- rowers, including the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Turkey, external debt stocks declined. INTERNATIONAL DEBT STATISTICS 2020 4 With debt stocks on the incline, debt burdens of low- and middle- income countries were broadly in line with those of 2017 The ratio of external debt to GNI averaged 26 percent, while the debt to export ratio aver- aged 101 percent only moderately lower than the prior year of 105 percent. About 45 percent of those countries’ debt to export ratio record over 150 percent, with the Sub-Saharan Africa region dominating. Net debt inflows to low- and middle-income countries fell 28 percent in 2018, to 529 billion, driven by downturns in both long-term and short-term debt inflows. Net long-term debt inflows fell to 304 billion 409 billion in 2017 due to a sharp reduc- tion in net inflows from bondholders. These fell 47 percent, to 157 billion. The 86 percent rise in net inflows from multilateral creditors reflected the International Monetary Fund’s IMF’s sup- port for Argentina, which was the key factor in the 86 percent rise in net inflows from multilat- eral creditors in 2018. They rose to 61 billion, of which half went to Argentina. Net inflows from mu